저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 2021년 12월 시장 폭락 경고를 소개하며, 과열 정도를 닷컴버블·1970년대와 비교한 주장을 다룬다. [시장 배경] 코로나 이후 저금리와 양적완화, 재정 지원으로 S&P500이 2020년 3월 저점 대비 100% 이상 상승했다. S&P500 PER은 약 26배로 높고, FTSE100은 약 17배로 상대적으로 저렴하다. [리스크 요인] 미국 CPI가 10월 6.2%로 급등해 인플레이션이 최대 우려로 제시됐다. 중앙은행이 예상보다 빨리 부양을 거둘 경우 증시 급락 가능성이 언급됐다. [낙관론자 전망] Brian Belski(캐피털 마켓 최고투자전략가)는 2022년 말 S&P500 5300(약 13% 상승) 전망을 제시했다. 근거는 견조한 기업 이익, 중앙은행 지원 지속, 인플레이션·공급망 문제 완화다. 연준이 2022년 중반 금리 인상을 해도 증시는 견조할 것이라고 봤다. [비관론자 발언] Robert Kiyosaki는 역사상 최대 버블과 최대 폭락을 경고하며 금·은·비트코인 보유를 권했다. [종합] 영상은 과열 우려와 낙관 전망이 엇갈리는 상황을 정리하며, 직접적인 개별 종목 매매 지시는 없었다.
다듬은 글
michael bury dark secret it's going to get worse december market crash plan exposed usually an investor's biggest fear is a stock market crash as savings can be cut in half or more so when an investor like michael bury compares stock markets of today to the dot-com crash it pays to take notice michael bury was made famous in the big short the film documented his call to short the housing market heading into the financial crisis today we're going to talk all about what warning michael bury just gave about the upcoming market matcird if you're interested in everything around bird chances for a stock market crash have to be viewed in the context of the pandemic when covet first started to spread ensuing lockdowns caused a lot of economic damage stock markets then fell as share prices had to reflect the prospect for lower profits we've seen a huge rebound in economic growth since then and stock markets have rallied accordingly particularly in the u.s where michael brewery is based but stock markets rebounded at speed the s p 500 is now up over 100 since the low in march 2020.
there was good reason for the stock market to rally central banks such as the federal reserve slashed interest rates to all-time lows the fed also started quantitative easing buying bonds to keep interest rates low and encourage lending this floods the financial markets with liquidity and reduces borrowing costs stimulus like this normally reverses a stock market crash just like in 2020 governments also helped with fiscal stimulus or spending to support their economics in the uk we had the furlough scheme to support jobs in the u.s there were checks sent directly to consumers bank accounts because of lockdowns there were limited places to spend this money so savings rates increased some commentators have said excess savings and financial liquidity have created greater demand for cryptocurrencies and nfts but michael bury has a rather stark warning for today's markets more speculation than the 1920s more overvaluation than the 1990s more economic strife than the 1970s wow if this is the case then we're about to see an almighty stock market crash stock market crash is their one coming i want to separate out the uk and the us stock markets i agree with burri to an extent on overvaluation in the us the price to earnings ratio for the s p 500 is high at almost 26 but the ftse 100 index is far cheaper at a p e of 17.
the ftse 100 also hasn't fully recovered from the stock market crash of 2020. this doesn't say to me that the uk market is full of speculation my biggest concern which aligns with brewery's comments on economic strife is rising inflation the current consumer price index cpi reading in the us was a huge 6.2 percent in october the bank of england is forecasting cpi at five percent early next year inflation really impacts lower income households the most then central banks may be forced to reverse economic stimulus quicker than expected this may lead to a stock market crash brian belski capital markets top investment strategist went on cnbc in march 2020 and predicted there would be an epic move to the upside in u.s stocks like something we've never seen before it was right then and now he's back with wall street's most bullish forecast for u.s stocks predicting earlier this month that the s p 500 can rally more than 13 percent to 5300 by the end of 2022 at the root of belski's bullishness is his belief that company earnings will stay strong central banks will remain supportive and that inflation and supply chain problems should cool i believe that next year is going to be another good year because i think people are too focused on inflation they're too focused on the negative he told insider this week the fundamental construct of the united states stock market is in wonderful condition we have the best equity assets in the world period belski was dismissive of market bears such as legendary investor jeremy grantham and michael brewery of the big short fame who are well known for warnings that stocks are heroically overpriced and that a crash is coming there are many chicken little strategists out there he said referring to the folktale character who warns the sky is falling many of them have had the same call for three years he said during which time equities have soared and they've missed the entire move fed tightening shouldn't hurt stocks belski and his colleagues brushed off concerns that stocks will suffer as the federal reserve tightens monetary policy as they laid out the reasoning behind their bullish forecasts in a note earlier in november the fed has already announced that it will trim its bond purchases by 15 billion dollars a month in response to strong inflation which is at a 31-year high but belski and co wrote the size of the fed's balance sheet will remain very large for quite some time which should continue to be supportive of stocks even if the u.s central bank hikes interest rates in the middle of next year as expected equities should still stay solid they said belski acknowledged that u.s stocks have historically struggled in the three months following the first in a cycle of interest rate rises from the fed with the s p 500 falling 1.9 percent on average however the index has done fairly well thereafter gaining 7.5 on average in the subsequent 12 months he noted inflation will cool and earnings will stay solid in any case belski thinks jitters about inflation should cool next year as supply chain kinks get ironed out expects the u.s consumer price index to fall from the 6.2 percent year-on-year rise in october to an increase of 2.4 percent by the end of 2022.
more importantly belsky believes corporate earnings will continue to drive stocks higher although earnings growth is set to slow it's still growth he said the strategist expects s p 500 earnings per share to increase 17 by the close of next year belsky and his colleagues think that given the stellar recent performance of stocks they're bound to hit some volatility at some point before resuming their march higher but they said that trying to time the market is very difficult and that a stay invested strategy is the best bet robert kiyosaki also tweeted in june that he was expecting the greatest market crash ever biggest bubble in world history getting bigger the personal finance guru and author of rich dad poor dad said biggest crash in world history coming kiyosaki has accused the federal reserve of overstimulating markets and devaluing the dollar he's advised investors to prepare for the downturn by stocking up on precious metals and cryptocurrencies are you ready he tweeted in april boom bust mania crash depression mania in markets today prepare for biggest crash depression in world history what will fed do print more money save more gold silver bitcoin ] so you
Comments 0