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check please welcome back to everything money in this video we're talking about palantir this is a data driven software and consulting company they have helped military organizations private corporations and even individuals get out of sticky situations by utilizing and analyzing data they help with hacks leaks and gathering data so that companies can use this data better this company ipo'd very high in the fall of 2020 and it has since crashed kathy woods paul has completely gotten rid of her entire stake in palantir which was once the best thing ever i would say that if you'd watched our channel over the past year paul has reminded us in every video we've ever made that it's not that he doesn't like palantir you just don't like the valuation paul but since it has collapsed so far it might be in your wheelhouse tell me why so i i did say this and remember i'm a big fan of peter thiel tl feel i i always say this company and stock are very different things guys very very different things i cannot stress this enough an investor understands this if you're not an investor you're expect if you don't understand this you're a speculator that's a very easy state if you understand the difference between a company and it's in its stock price the difference between them you just don't get it now does that mean you're hopeless no because i didn't get it for a long time i was just like everybody else and then all of a sudden i said there's got to be a better way all right so palantir and i remember saying i was on five dollars i was interested in it and now it's down to 11.
in terms of saying we ran the numbers with our stock analyzer tool and with projections and growth it gave us a buy range of but somewhere between five and twelve dollars so palantir has been around for a long time but it hasn't been profitable for a long time so whenever we make projections about the future it's hard when there's no profitability because then you go well when they are profitable how profitable would they be does that mean you can't do it no or the present value of all future cash flow and negative cash flow right so if a company has negative one one zero one two three as time goes on there's negative numbers in there but those can still be present valued together so let's go look at palantir through our software the eight pillar software valentine click on it guys a new thing here on the website we have updated pricing constantly it is constantly updating the price so let's just go right to the eight pillars here not enough data so let's go to the let's go start from the very beginning well there is anything income statement the revenue here now the revenue growth is insane look at 2019 990 million and now 2021 last year 1.5 billion insane revenue growth their number of commercial private commercial accounts is growing like crazy i was reading about this they have something like 300 i don't know what exact numbers are but the growth is incredible now here's the issue we have the net income last year was still a loss of 520 million so let's put it up by quarters and see if there's any promise in the quarter numbers so just to show you guys last quarter 432 million the same quarter of 2020 322 million the same quarter of 2019 230 million so there's definite growth there are they profitable yet well let's scroll down here no they lost 156 million dollars last quarter now the good news is they lost 148 the quarter before that you might sit there and say the same quarter previously you might sit there and say wait a second that's this is worse it is but they had a lot more revenue so they're probably still growing things like that i'm not as concerned about if you have lost money on this company by listening to folks in the news you could have screened this many months ago using our software and find out what a bad deal very well might have been paul tell them what they could have done about a year ago in avoiding palantir and getting the software so this software is created specifically because the people who watched our channel wanted to be able to analyze stocks of their own so we very simply created it granted it took hundreds of thousand dollars lots of developers but we created it what you get is everything here including eight pillars portfolio stock analyzer tool every day we release content just for our users you get access to seth moe and i you get all this and the watch list and all the data we were reviewed recently and somebody said the news that we have alone is worth the 30 a month one dollar per day guys you can get all of this but most importantly our chat community our chat community is made up of over 6 000 people who talk every single day about all their investment ideas because trust me it's so difficult to find like-minded people you found us and you were attracted to us and i guarantee 95 of your friends would be like these guys are crazy and that's fine but if it makes sense to you these people agree with you and they can talk to you what do you think about this stock oh i don't like this i like this it has it's an engaging community of saving time on research of companies and all investment ideas people and they're talking about crypto i go in there and just sit there and say hey this is what i like about crypto people disagree with me fine it's a great place to engage all this available for only one dollar per day if you can increase your returns by a mere one or two percent or not lose 70 on pound tier or decrease your losses by one or two percent forget about my balance here 70 that would have saved you a ton this wi in your retirement .com for our international users the benefit of everythingmoney.com is we are not big enough to charge sales tax yet so you'll save that for a while and the great news is also as we grow further new users will pay a higher price you're locked in the rate you pay today one dollar per day it's a no-brainer guys i can't even tell you how easy this is now for our stock analyzer tool this is the big thing on our website this allows you to take all your assumptions in the future and put it in there and it'll tell you hey here's what you should buy the the stock for and the great news is we have a new feature called the watch list so you can add the stock at a certain price and notify you when it hits that number so let's put up some assumptions in here because really with palantir that's the way to go the problem is going to happen if if there are future losses this will not calculate future losses quite well in this current state so i'm going to assume lower profit numbers and growing as time goes on on the on the positive assumptions so revenue growth i'm going to go with 20 25 and 30 let's see let's go 15 25 and 35 percent now to give you an idea of what that means at 35 revenue growth the next 10 years when they did 1.5 billion that's 30 billion dollars in revenue 10 years from now the question you have to ask yourself is is that real is that a possibility is that a realistic possibility mo would you just say who knows who knows i have no idea part of your research will be to sit there and say okay is their market size can they sell 30 billion dollars worth in year 10 from now as they grow i don't know now 15 revenue growth in the next 10 years times 1.5 billion it's 6 billion okay that seems pretty reasonable expect i don't know either but even then it's like i don't know right good and that's what every investment is and the more track record you have the easier is it to give some sort of assumption about the future so that's why i've been anti-palantir as it was 48 this year i'm like listen that's assuming so many positives have to happen now as it's eleven dollars okay maybe so let me put some assumptions in here for profit margin i'm gonna go with now i'm gonna put four percent in here that's way too low for a software business but it's also going to factor in losses along the way so maybe the three first three or four years are going to have negative 10 percent loss but the last 10 years is going to be a positive 15 or 20 percent gain profit margin i'm going to go seven and i'll go eight and 12 percent free cash flow i'm gonna do the exact same thing pe 13 15 17 just because i like doing that and then for of course the return guys i actually might go higher i might because of how risky this company is i need more margin of safety i'm gonna go 15 return i usually do 12 and a half percent we've done 1300 videos i've done 12 and a half percent in 1299 of them yes in a lot of them i'm hit the analyze button okay so i'm still getting 70 cents on the low side nice ten dollars on the high side so it's close to the high assumption so in my personal opinion i had said five dollars per share back in the day off the cuff it might actually end up being around the three four five dollar range because remember they're also issuing shares and diluting you which is giving you less ownership of the company as time goes on now from a perspective of a balance sheet which is always something you want to look at when it comes to startups they have 2.86 billion dollars in cash and cash equivalents well is that the problem paul this isn't a startup this is a 20 year old true i meant your very good point very good point it's a startup in the sense of the revenue path is still in its early stages and growing rapidly okay now they have 2.86 billion dollars in cash and cash equivalents and only 1 billion in total liabilities so for a company that is currently at 22 billion you're essentially paying 1 billion less but even for a software business guys the price of sales ratio is very high it's 14 times sales but again they're growing like crazy so you can justify a higher premium the question is what premium the issue i have had with a lot of investors in palantir is they think it's going to grow 20 30 a year pay whatever they might not saying pay whatever but their actions are dictating that i'm sitting there saying wait a second just pump the brakes i have a lot of potential in my future more than warren buffett does mourinho is 91 years old why is he worth a lot more than me because he's earned it he's got the cash stay in there he's got the cash flow all these things that justify i have not even though i have way more potential than warren buffett way more potential a-rod retired from baseball right are we gonna give some 15-year-old kid who has potential in baseball his money versus a-rod coming out of retirement no you could may ride more money why he's proven himself all these analogies in life are there for that taking we just got to remember that price is what you pay value is what you get i am now learning why you were so dismissive of this company at the previous pricing uh the market cap it was almost 100 billion dollar market cap for what for a billion dollars in revenue at the time it just didn't make sense to me it's 80 times revenue even with growth potential you have a lot of growth to make up for in order to justify any remote iota of that price yeah i was watching this old clip this old man talking he's kind of out of touch but it was a speech he was given where it almost takes him about 30 seconds to look at a deal and sort of know if he's interested 30 seconds why so long yeah it was uh it was this guy named um jimmy buffett jimmy warren buffett but anyway um is that what he said yeah yeah i mean 30 seconds you know sometimes 30 seconds it's so funny to me when people criticize i remember going through houses i remember once i was buying a deal this is a real estate deal but guys every investment's the same to me if you understand them you can tell very quickly i was buying six houses from this guy who bragged about how he spent so many years he said so many months researching these properties and i was buying them from him for 25 less than he paid for them we go through a house four minutes later i'm like okay i'm done he's like that's it i'm like yeah i'm done it's like don't you want to do it no and i literally said to him he goes don't you want to you spend how much time researching these and i'm buying from 25 less i'm good let's move on and those things have killed it for us you know what properties they are tapa i'm starting to take this into account my personal license when i look at deals i i've even tell told people i need this you know there's an ass last night that i was buying something and they wanted six grand i said i need to easily see nine grand in in material here before i'm going to buy this and uh that didn't fall very well on him because people want to feel it's just like the whole old adage about working hard i always tell kids walk from here to the door nobody should walk in zigzags why even though it's more work it's not efficient if you know what you're talking about you should be able to tell very quickly you give me a profit and loss statement balance sheet cash flow statement and no matter give me these i can give you a rough estimate give me the eight pillars data i can give you a russ estimate of what i'm trying to do so anyways go into stock analyzer tool now i have my price i can add to my watch list and add a notification when it hits five bucks and goes below there notify me there you go it's on my watch list now all this with the software before we get to paul's final take on palantir and what he's doing with this mo what are people doing in the bid nas nation in trading this stock so i wouldn't do anything along with this stock just because i don't i i'm not comfortable doing that i would rather go more day to day with this and if this thing drops below nine dollars there's no support down there because this this company came public when uh september 2020 yeah so this is all the chart we have so anything below this going to zero there's no support in there and that's why i don't like companies that don't have a ton of history going on but let's see so let me zoom in here there's a little tiny gap that i would love to see filled and those of you that love swing trading you could take advantage of this there's a little gap that needs to fill right here at what price um 14.
oh wow yeah that's 30 upside from today 1364. okay so 20 upside down so if you can get some volume coming in here get the stochastic to turn up and just push right through this little 25 day moving average you have some pretty good potential on a swing trade here so i would add this to a watch list now from a day trading side this is an interesting stock because it's not something that you can day trade every single day but when you can day trade it you guys both know you can make some serious money on it going long and short so i would just put this on a watch list when you'll more often than not lately you're going to drop below 20 you're going to go short on this thing there's going to be days where you could see plus fifteen percent on pounds here take advantage of those and day trade it with us in the bid nest nation on our live streams paul where am i going in the future with this company i'm interested i'm just being patient either their fundamentals get better and justify a higher price or the fundamentals stay the same and the fundamentals get better and the price goes lower and it still justifies that price this is a fast growing company it gets switched very quickly in a year from now they double their revenue double their profit higher than expectations it might be a buy at 11 bucks but right now it is not a buy for me at 11.
extreme patience i need more vet my life and i'm learning yeah we all do yeah fondle thumbs up subscribe see more videos and uh thanks for watching you
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