저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 2030년 주가 시나리오 분석. 애널리스트 EPS 성장률 85%를 적용하면 $993 가능하나 비현실적이라 평가. 현실적 EPS 성장률 21% 가정 시 2030년 약 $78 예상. 현재가 $24 기준 6년간 약 3배 수익률은 여전히 양호하다고 봄. 경쟁 심화로 고성장 지속 어렵다고 주장. 과거 1월 매수 추천 후 수익 실현 권유.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone. So I've been doing some financial modeling, some forecasting for Palantir stock and one estimate combined with one model I've predicted has Palantir stock price soaring to man, wild levels that you're not going to believe. So I'm going to share with you that scenario, but I'm also going to share with you more likely scenarios for where Palantir stock price could be in 2030 in addition to that shocking scenario that you're probably not going to believe.
You're probably going to think that scenario is not very likely and not very probable. Nevertheless, I'll share it with you and I'll share with you the source where I'm getting that information from so you could come to your own conclusion as to the probability of that phenomenal price increase. So without further ado, let's jump into this interesting analysis for Palantir stock.
I want to thank The Motle Kev for the 10 best stocks to buy now. All right, so you're probably already aware Palantir's trading price as of today $24.18. Stock price soaring since bottoming out in January of 2023. Of course, I recently told investors that followed my recommendation to take profits in Palantir stock.
I recommended Palantir stock as a buy in early early January. So those gains are nice and I told investors if you're in it since then, it's a good time to take profits in Palantir stock. Nevertheless, the company is an excellent company with great prospects longer term. Another thing I'm going to need is Palantir' is 61.58.
All right, so on to Palantir's earnings per share. The current year, Palantir is expected to deliver $0.33 in earnings per share. And for next year, Palantir is expected to increase its earnings per share to $0.40. $0.40 earnings per share. Now, the long-term forecast for Palantir's earnings per share is quite remarkable.
Analysts on Wall Street that are following Palantir stock expect Palantir to deliver 85% growth in earnings per share for the next 5 years per year. Now, those are outlandish growth expectations for any company. So, I'm not sure how realistic that is. In fact, I think this rate of growth is quite unrealistic for Palantir.
I think something closer to its next year's rate of growth, where it's expected to grow earnings per share for 21%, is more probable. However, I'm going to show you the scenario of where the stock price valuation could be with this 85% growth forecast from analysts on Wall Street. Now, you can decide for yourself how probable that is.
I've already told you I think it's very unlikely. So, let me share that with you here. So, if Palantir's earnings per share grows by 85% per year until the year 2031, so 6 years of growth at 85%, earnings per share could be $16.13 in 2031. And so, using the PE forward ratio for 2030, the stock price, if the PE ratio also remains at 61.58, and earnings per share is on pace for $16.13, the stock price could be on pace to reach $993 per share.
$993 per share by 2030. Now, I told you this would be a shocking number that you would not believe, and the numbers does seem shocking considering Palantir stock price is currently at $24 per share. So, that would be a nearly 50 X increase or 40 X increase from where it's at today. Now, I think that scenario is highly unlikely, and one of the factors is going to give either the price to earnings multiple will decrease, which I don't think will be the case if Palantir's earnings per share grows at 85% per year for 6 years.
I think Palantir's valuation is going to be sky-high as investors are going to love the stock. They're going to want to be a part of a company that's growing earnings at 85% per year for that many years. That's very difficult to do, and if you do that, if you achieve that, investors are going to pile into your stock.
They're going to love your business. Now, I think what's more likely is the growth rate in earnings per share is going to be significantly smaller, significantly smaller. I don't think it's going to be 85% for the next 5 years. I'm not saying it's not going to grow at all. I'm just thinking it's not going to grow at 85%.
I think something closer to what it's going to grow next year. Next year, it's expecting to grow earnings per share at 21%. I think 21.2% year as expected for next year is a more reasonable earnings per share per year expectation for Palantir stock. I think this is a more reasonable number. So, if we forecast Palantir's earnings per share at this point 212 number, then the earnings per share for 2031 could be a $1.27, and at the same multiple of 61.58, Palantir stock price could increase to $78 per share by 2030.
I think this scenario is more probable, and given that its current stock price is at $24 per share, that would still be an excellent return on investment for Palantir stock investors holding the stock for 6 years and the stock tripling in value in that time. Of course, Palantir stock investors would prefer the other scenario where the stock price goes up to $1,000 per share, but again, I don't think that scenario is very likely as growing earnings per share by that magnitude for those that many years is unlikely.
For one reason, if you grow earnings per share by that level for even 2 years, competition is going to pile into your industry. Competition watches closely, and when they see a company delivering those kinds of results, they're going to jump into your industry. And even if they're not on your level in terms of the product offering, they're going to take market share, and they're going to make it harder for you to generate that kind of earnings growth cuz you're going to have to compete with more participants, especially in an industry like what Palantir is in, where the barriers of entry are not that high.
You're going to have competition come in and offer similar products even if they're not that good. They're going to come in and offer similar products, and they're going to hurt your marketability. They're going to hurt your ability to sell your product at premium prices cuz customers are going to look at your product and say, "Look, we know you're the best.
Like, we know you're the best. We're not saying anything about that, but you're charging us, let's say, $100, and your competition is charging $65. We know you're the best, but that your competition is a more affordable option. We don't necessarily need the best. We just need something in this area, and we'll go with your competition cuz they're so much less pricey.
And then Palantir will have to decide, do we keep our premium price, or do we lower our price so that our competition cannot take market share simply because they're offering a lower price? And so, if they do decide to lower their price, that's going to hurt their profit margin. That's going to hurt their earnings per share.
If they don't lower their price, then they're going to lose market share, which is going to hurt revenue, which is going to hurt earnings per share anyway. So, for that reason, just longer term, it's unrealistic to expect any business to grow earnings per share by 85% per year for 6 years. That's just unrealistic.
It's n- I wouldn't be surprised if that's not been done before. I don't have that research in front of me, but I wouldn't be surprised if that hasn't been done before. So, there you have it. I gave you that shocking price prediction for Palantir stock. I also gave you the more probable outcome where the earnings per share grows at 21% for the next 6 years, and Palantir stock price ends up around $78 per share by .
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