저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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테슬라 2024 EPS 추정치가 3.15에서 2.75로 하락하며 수요 둔화·공급 과잉으로 실적 전망이 악화. PER도 82에서 39.75로 낮아짐. 현재가 171달러 기준 EPS·PER 유지 시 19.30달러까지 하락 가능. 다만 성장 재가속 시 PER 80 복귀로 225달러까지 상승 가능성 언급. 가격 전망을 150~250달러로 하향 조정.
다듬은 글
hey everyone of course I made a Tesla stock price prediction for 2024 2 months ago but so much has changed since then that an update is necessary to my Tesla stock price prediction for 2024 so that's what I'll do in this video I'll incorporate all the new updates that's come in surrounding Tesla stock and I'll make a new Tesl of course one of the numbers I'm going to need for Tesla stock price prediction for 2024 is the 2024 earnings per share estimate and as of this recording that estimate is $2.75 now you could see this number has come down consistently in the last 90 days 90 days ago it was $381 then it decreased to 374 then down to 286 then for a brief moment it increased to $33 before analysts changed their mind again and decreased it down to $2.75 so the earnings per share estimates for Tesla stock have been dropping and dropping quickly both for 2024 and for 2025 as all of the news that's coming in surrounding the electric vehicle industry indicates that consumer demand is weakening and Supply is incre increasing by a rate that's excess of the increase in demand so there's a mismatch between supply and demand in the EV industry with too much Supply that's a big difference between 2020 and 2021 remember there was too much demand at that point and all of these car companies were touting the fact that they couldn't keep up with demand well now that they increased Supply turns out that demand was shortlived and once those initial orders were fulfilled there isn't really that much excess demand for electric vehicles so that's been hurting Tesla's earnings per share and its earnings per share forecasts for 2024 and Beyond I also need Tesla's current stock price which is at $171 per share it's down significantly in 2024 of course when I made my prediction for Tesla stock in 20124 I made a video answering is Tesla stock a buy for 2024 and I said no Tesla stock is not a Buy in 2024 and I cited all of the factors I mentioned a little while ago surrounding the EV industry and I also highlighted that Tesla is one of the best EV companies but that the industry is the problem not Tesla Tesla is one of the better companies in the industry but the industry is struggling following a surge in Supply following the surge in stock prices in 2020 which gave all of these EV companies that had no business business with billions of dollars it injected billions of dollars of capital which allowed them to increase Supply and now that Supply is coming onto the market and it's in excess of consumer demand so that's what's dropping prices dropping uh demand and creating an influx of inventory in dealerships worldwide also I need Tesla's price to earnings ratio currently at 39.75 this has also decreased significantly since the start of the Year Tesla stock used to trade at a price to earnings closer to 80 now it's down to 39.75 as investors started asking themselves why are we paying such a premium price for Tesla stock why it's valued as a massive growth stock but we're not getting any growth we're not getting or we are getting growth but that growth is barely in the double digits earnings per share is falling prices are falling why are we paying a premium price for Tesla at you know price to earnings of 40 or 80 before when you could buy Ford and GM and stalas at a price to earnings of five and six and four in the single digits so that's the Dilemma that Tesla is having to answer to investors right now why do we deserve this premium price is it driverless car technology well when is that going to happen happen 5 years later 10 years later Elon Musk has been promising driverless cars for almost a decade now well I shouldn't say a decade but let's say five years now and we're not very much close to driverless cars unfortunately in the US I feel China is closer to driverless cars than we are here in the US and it's not Tesla's fault completely there's a lot of regul regulatory hindrances between getting the technology and getting it out on the roads which I don't think is going to get any easier for Tesla or any of the other companies trying to develop driverless car technology in the US so now that we have these estimates we can go ahead with our financial model you could see my previous financial model here when I made the video two months ago answering where will Tesla stock be in 2024 you can see the numbers that were uh evident at that point in time right these are the numbers I had at that point in time when I was looking at the earnings per share estimate for 2024 it was $3.15 and I highlighted earlier those earnings per share forecasts have been falling all the way down to $2.75 as of this recording also Tesla's PE multiple was 82 at that point now it's down to 39.75 so if Tesla's earnings per share comes in at $2.75 for 2024 and its PE multiple stays the same at 39.75 Tesla stock price could fall to $19.30 fall from $171 so if all else Remains the Same Tesla stock price is expected to decrease significantly in 2024 for Tesla's stock price to increase or not fall one of these factors has to change is it going to be the earnings per share I don't know those keep getting revised lower and given all the price Cuts an increase in Supply and higher interest rates I don't know if Tesla's earnings per share are going to be better than expected in fact all the latest developments that are coming out suggest that Tesla's earnings per share are actually going to be worse so is it going to be the price to earnings multiple is it going to be investors are going to again be will to pay a higher valuation for Tesla stock I think that's where it's going to have to come from and that's where it's always come from for Tesla stock it's almost always traded at a premium price it's almost always commanded a premium valuation investors have always been willing to pay a higher price for Tesla stock compared to all of the other automakers because of some special significance they place on Tesla stock some extra extra confidence they place in Tesla stock for it to achieve business goals that are much better than what other car companies can achieve now if Tesla's price to earnings were to increase to 50 then the stock price would still fall to $137.50 so Tesla's price to earnings ratio would have to rise by much more than 25% in order for the stock price to just even remain flat but what if its price the earnings were to fall to 30 that would mean the price would be cut by more than half to $82.50 if the price the earnings were to fall to 25 that would cut the price by nearly 1/3 to $688 and that isn't even to mention that even at a price to earnings of 25 Tesla would still be significantly more more expensive than Legacy automakers like Ford GM stantis and others even at a price to earnings of 25 and so you can see the volatility in this stock the potential for much more downside but also potential for much more upside because investors might all of a sudden be willing to pay a price to earnings of 80 again for Tesla or 82 like it was when I was doing this video you know a couple of months ago which could then send the stock price back up to $225 per share right so it's a volatile company it's always been volatile I don't suspect that to change there's always been significant downside and significant upside for Tesla stock that's just been the way it was the way it's been and I don't think that's going to change anytime soon unless Tesla goes through a much longer stretch of lack of performance if it goes through a much longer stretch of a lack of performance where investors start to realize like hey wait a minute Tesla's not delivering all of those things that it promised it was going to deliver and investors start to look back at all of the promises made by Elon Musk and the fraction of them fulfilled and start to realize should we still be willing to pay a premium price for this company even after all of these failed promises maybe after a couple of years of underperformance that will start to become evident in the market if not if there is a return to growth and growth accelerates again I feel that'll quickly generate enthusiasm for Tesla stock again and investors will start kicking themselves for being down on Tesla stock and say to themselves man I should have bought it when it was down I listened to to all the bare case and I didn't buy Tesla stock and they'll rush into buy it and the momentum will take over and Tesla stock will explode back higher back up to levels of a PE of over 80 so it's one of those stocks that can do that but to update my price prediction for Tesla stock previously I had Tesla stock price prediction for 2024 at $239 to $310 I need to down upgrade that recommendation given the recent updates on Tesla stock so my updated recommendation or price prediction for Tesla stock is between $150 per share to $250 per share and that wide range is because what I mentioned earlier it's a volatile stock that can move sharply in either direction and so I need to account for that in my price prediction
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