저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2025년 시장 전망: 새 행정부의 친(親)시장 성향, 고금리 완화, 현금 대기자금 7조달러로 경기·증시에 우호적 환경. 주택·내구재 회복 기대. 선호는 시클리컬·중소형주로 분산 확대. 채권시장은 재정적자 관리 의지로 안정 기대. 단 밸류에이션(포워드PE 약 22, 버핏지수 약 2.8)이 높아 과열 리스크 존재. 관세가 주요 불확실성. 리서치 헤드 Ed Yardeni는 강세장 지속, 7000·10000 목표 언급.
다듬은 글
is there anything more that can be done to entice investors as we move into the upcoming year it's fantastic to see you Tom Lee of fundstrat who joins me at Post 9 and contributes to CNBC it's great to see you so let's add up all the good things Anin I know you've been kind of in gear with that a idea that the economy would power through inflation would come down the E could become friendlier earnings are going higher big question to me is how do we set expectations for the year to come given that up that's all in the books um it's a great question because you know we have two backtack 20% years and now investors are wondering how much good news is baked in but if we look at the 2025 environment it's a great setup because we have a new Administration coming in that's maybe pro-animal Spirits you know a trump put we have a Dosh fed and as you're pointing out interest rates are kind of calming down after rising and we know there's still 7 trillion cash on the sidelines and I think sentiments coming back into check you mentioned that before with the aam so I think it's a good setup for investors I wouldn't be too worried about the next 12 months so don't be too worried I mean it seems as if they're all these supported factors and when you mention the 220% up years in a row history says actually you know the following year is up more often then not as well what what you mean do you think specifically by the new Administration being pro-animal Spirits first of all it's true you kind of seen it at work um it seems to pull in that direction but is there or there specifics that the market is fixated on that it's going to drive that Dynamic uh yes I think that the Market's trying to figure out exactly how this animal spirits plays out in markets but I would say we've got a treasury secretary that Equity markets approve of we we do know that the the last Trump presidency was cared very much about what stock prices do and Jeremy seagull said this is the most stock market focused president ever and I think that the uncertainty is around trade and the potential risk around tariffs but we'll have to see I mean that something markets are going to have to like deal with it from an uncertainty perspective it's interesting to me that you know the way the market has behaved in the last several weeks but even going into the election was we need to owe more cycle we need to owe more financial stocks we're going to repic this market for a maybe of growth acceleration even or at least a maintaining above Trend growth meanwhile though we're only a couple months removed from a pretty big growth scare job growth has kind of slowed to a point the housing market seems pretty locked up it's kind of interesting how the sentiment has kind of jumped ahead is the economic numbers position to actually validate that view markets tend to be forward-looking so I would expect this I know there has been a recession in durable goods and in housing and Auto Sales principally because of high rates which have made it affordability an issue that's really on the come next year I mean I think the spread of 10 years in mortgages should come down and the tenure hopefully behaves and I think if if there's more confidence and more Supply I think housing actually could lead this recovery I think that's why homebuilders actually started to act better this week as well Yesa they seem very sensitive too to the yield you know sort of halting their rise as well I guess the question is if we believe it's still a supportive environment and pretty much all the things you can identify I would suggest you shouldn't be too worried about next year the second question is is something like the S and p500 the best vehicle to capitalize on that um I think investors are still trying to figure this out we did a survey with our institutional investors and and our Rock clients last week the majority of institutional investors don't think Fang is the leading trade they're actually betting on cyclicals but if you look at the row world of the majority are betting on Fang so I think the market is still undecided whether to beong the mag 7 or the cyclicals I'm inclined to be more cyclical and better even on small caps having an extremely busy year next year so let's welcome Ed yardin this morning to discuss the markets in more detail of course yini is the president of research happy Black Friday Ed great to have you thank you um you've been writing a lot obviously lately about the coming year and actually the next few years I know where we've talked a lot about your 7K Target your 10K Target down the road um to Sarah's point about the market broadening is that I guess healthy on a net basis absolutely you remember when this uh bull market got got started it uh was kind of of like the Rodney Dangerfield bull markets it got no respect because it was so narrow and we argued that give it sometime it a little broaden and that's what it's doing now and we've seen certainly seen the midcaps a go on fire and then uh the S and p493 I think are going to do well increasingly well what do you think's going on with these yields um are a bond vigilance are convinced that there will be constructive work done in this Administration yeah absolutely I think the Trump Administration incoming Administration about some time I kind of plated that the bond vigilance by a basically acknowledging that we got a problem with the deficit and the new incoming treasury secretary is somebody who's gotten a lot of market experience so he's kind of like one of us if you will when the market looks at odd at this Administration and the fact that they're in fact going to go after a spending H and that they're going to try to raise some revenues maybe within an across theboard tariffs at Lee at least shows that other they cognizant of the problem and and maybe they're kind of having a Bill Clinton moment remember when Bill Clinton was warned by his advisers don't mess with the bond vigilance and we actually had a very conservative fiscal policy back then well I mean analogist to the mid99s are pretty positive and there has been some work done looking at what happens when you bring the budget deficit relative to GDP lower kind of it's an everything rally is it not it becomes an everything rally and you know the only risk is that it becomes too much of a good thing that it becomes comes a melt up and now we're kind of on the edge there right we've got the valuation multiples which are quite elevated we've got the forward PE around 22 we've got the buffet ratio around 2.8 which is a record high we've got Warren Buffett himself raising a lot of cash which kind of has everybody some somewhat concerned uh but all in all at uh I think the bull market is still very much here and continues into the next year and I don't see a recession recessions are usually see caused by credit crunch and that's not happening with the a inclined to lower interest rates it's not happening with the price of oil unable to have a rally with geopolitical risks which seem to be actually narrowing so the only thing left to worry about I think is tariffs and right now it looks like they are being effectively used for negotiating purposes I mean there's been so much so many flows into US equities because of all these reasons we're talking about eer reported 141 billion into US equities and that's that's for the month the heaviest inflows in a 4-we period on record so do you want to just continue that Trend or do you want to go somewhere contrarian like Europe where everybody hates right now well you're asking the wrong person since 2010 I've advocated staying at home rather than going global the US has been on fire lately but you're right from a contrarian standpoint it might be worthwhile to look overseas for a little while but no I'm going to continue to stay at home and invest by the way I don't like what you just said because it's talking about contrary indicators when it comes to
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