저자: DividendTalks채널진행자 · 외국인
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팔란티어(PLTR)는 최근 AI 관련 미 육군 계약(약 1,786만 달러 규모) 등으로 주가가 급등했고, 4분기 실적에서 매출 20% 성장, 조정 잉여현금흐름 흑자, 첫 순이익 흑자 전환이 확인됐다고 설명. 부채 대비 현금이 크게 늘어 재무가 건전하다고 평가. 내부자 매도는 있었으나 기관 순매수가 지속. 2024년 S&P500 편입 가능성을 언급. DCF 기준 중간 성장률 25% 가정 시 적정가치 약 31달러, 현재가 26달러 대비 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 월가 목표가는 약 32.5달러.
다듬은 글
palente tier reached alltime highs this week and it doesn't look like it's going to stop with price targets by analyst being revised higher and higher showing lots of growth over the next few years and Beyond we're going to take a look at this company Deep dive as always we're going to have a quick update to their income statement Topline Revenue as well as their bottom line net income we're also going to discuss some of the health aspects of this company total cash versus their total debt and we'll also see how they're performing versus some of their competitors over the last few years we'll discuss the mass Insider selling that we've noticed over the last few months and we'll look at the institutions get an update are they still buying more shares of this company quarteron quarter over the last few years and we'll also talk about some of their metrics we'll focus on the free cash flow their growth as well as looking at their Ric and net debt we also want to take a look and see exactly whether or not a lot of the analysts are bullish on this red hot artificial intelligence growth stock we're going to take a look at why the price surged not too long ago with a new contract being given to Palante here and we'll touch upon a few things from their Q4 highlights that does really signify that this could be a very strong turning for this company and finally we'll look at whether or not the S&P 500 inclusion in 2024 is possible and the outcomes in terms of how bullish this is for the company don't forget we will run it through the valuation model we're going to get to the intrinsic value as well as our acceptable Buy price given that invest a margin of safety see what Wall Street New forecast is for the next 12 months and in today's episode we're going to look at a three- tiered approach for the valuation we're going to look at a low growth rate moving forwards a medium and a high to understand whether or not we do see this happening in the future so let's start off with the historical performance now we can see over the last year they are up 200 116% currently trading right there towards their 52e low which they hit this week now over the last 5 years we can see initially in 2020 this was around $10 it reached an all-time high as we can see here of 3738 at the beginning of 2021 it does currently however offer a 81 forward PE which does get a lot of investors scared given how high it is we will discuss that and the market cap now sitting at 58 billion this is a company now whilst we look for 3 to 7% on other companies this is really really expanding their top line at a rapid rate 743 million in December 2019 December 2023 from that latest annual report we're seeing three times growth just over the last 5 years on that Gran new level as well increases year after year so very strong but when we look at the bottom line very interesting to note they had a net loss so the brackets picks a loss netive 580 million they had a loss pretty much every year for the last four years and in December 2023 the first year where they reported a bottom line net income so this is very positive and this could be the Turning for the company that really propels it into a very strong company in terms of their share price as well as their future performance and profitability so lots of interesting factors to note there when we look at the health of the company total cash versus total debt 1.1 billion of cash in short investments in 2019 3.7 billion in the latest report so they hold around 3 to four times as much cash as they did 5 years ago now when we compare that to their total debt numerically and directionally has in fact dropped 396 million gone down to 229 so pretty positive they've increased their cash quite dramatically whilst reducing their total debt always a strong positive sign now if you want to compare how this company is doing to others in the application software industry like rer Technologies and some other well-known in this industry we can see over the last year total return parante the best performing up 215% when we extend it to the last 5 years we can see again one of the best in fact the best performing up 175% so bear in mind past performance has been very strong from this company but just something to always remember that because they've done this in the past it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be very strong in the future in terms of insider trading now we have taken a look at both buys and sells over the last month now what we've noticed is a lot of selling by insiders notably as well Alexander C carp we can see here sold over 1 million worth of shares giving him around 24.8 million now this is interesting to know although what we can see here along this column it shows us the price since every Insider has sold over the last month has gone up pretty strongly between 5 to 13% as I always say inside selling isn't necessarily a bearish signal they sell for whether it's personal reasons or essential financial reasons but always good to knowe when we do take a look at just over the last 7 days we can see no Insider buying or selling so something to bear in mind but as always it isn't necessarily a bearish signal we have 34% of institutional ownership currently 588 Million worth of sales by the institutions over the last 12 months 7.4 billion of buys during these same periods so a lot more buying by these institutions over the 12-month period and interesting to note not just over the last 12 months but every single quarter q1 Q2 Q3 and Q4 are more buying than selling with the largest Buy in Q2 so bear in mind institutions are very bullish on palente here as we can see they have been buying tremendously every single quarter but as always never copy institutions it is very important to do your own due diligence now we're going to take a look at some bullish signals for this stock over the next few few years and the first thing to note here from this article from the mly fo just a few days ago what they do say here is and we're going to discuss this shortly paler they want a major Army contract which adds to an already imperative pedigree we're going to take a look at those contracts that paler have but what they are also noting here that investors should be even more excited about the company's Commercial Business which is growing like Gang Busters and their third and final point is that even though it may look expensive remember when we looked at the PE it does look very high at a first glance looks can be deceiving as that isn't the full story of this company you shouldn't just look at the PE Ratio so let's very quickly take a look at what this SED so just a few days ago they surged because of a 178.6 million contract with the US Army focused on AI so very bullish for this company we will look at the number of contracts they have which seems to be increasing every single day they are a very very strong company that is growing very very rapidly so we can see once this was announced the shares did jump on Wednesday morning from then it did hit its all-time high and essentially the contract will fund Titan which is the Tactical intelligence targeting access node ground system station that collects data for long range position fires it is interestingly their fourth largest contract by annual revenue run rate and their shares were up around 10% in the early trading of Wednesday contributing to more than 57% gain the stock has seen since 2024 now very impressive the reason for this as we're going to see a few highlights from their Q4 earnings what we can see here is a US commercial customers count grew 55% year on-ear and around 22% quarteron quarter they've closed 103 deals worth over 1 million this will now be one extra on top of this and this is two times what they had around a year ago now if we purely look at the Top Line their revenue grew 20% year on year 9% quarteron quarter to around 68 million very positive with both commercial Revenue growing 70% absolutely incredible and the essential commercial revenue from non us 32% year on-ear on top of that even more positive their adjusted free cash flow looking very strong $35 million with a 50% margin and this is the fourth consecutive quarter of Gap operating profitability and the fifth consecutive quarter of Gap profitability with that 15% margin so lots to love with this company it is increasing quarteron quarter year on year moving in absolutely the right direction on top of that if you do want to be even more bullish we can see here whilst this was in December the question Still Remains whether or not paler stock will join the S&P 500 in 2024 they now meet the criteria to be able to enter the S&P 500 last Friday unfortunately when they were rebalancing it they didn't make the cut one thing I did want to point out though here which is what we should expect if if they are put into the S&P 500 companies that were included so other high profile stocks recently are Uber which gained around 6.2% on December when it joined Airbnb which jumped 7.2% on the news in September so lost to bear in mind that even though they are still up very very strong amount when they are to be included hopefully some point in 2024 we will be expecting another nice Jump Around the single digits or possibly the low double digits to what is already a very very strong company and a very very strong growth period over the last year and we can see right there now at the 52e highs which will go even higher over the coming years now before we take a look at the metrics and jump into the valuation just to let if you want to gain access to this or any other of our articles all completely free click on that pin comment below and you can gain instant access now in terms of this company we do like to look at the free cash flow share as the earnings is susceptible to manipulation by management through accounting what I love is when you look at companies they've gone from negative cash flow to positive this is why when some of the companies we review on the channel have negative free cash flow and you may be wondering why we review them because what happens is when that free cash flow turns positive that is when you start to see a very strong run in the share price it's gone from -10 cents to 32 cents in 20123 moving the right direction flip from a negative to positive in 2020 to 2021 and in 2024 expected to grow again so looking very positive on the growth for the free cash flow per share sales growth as well nice to know double digit every single year now you could argue it may be slowing down as it has been dropping from 2020 nonetheless looking very healthy and with these contracts that do seem to be increasing such as the Army contract which is their fourth biggest in terms of annual revenue this sales growth in my opinion will continue at double digit for quite some time and could possibly even see Triple digits depending on these contracts moving internationally as well as we have discussed on the previous episode so numerically speaking they have gone from 600 million sales to 2.23 billion and another thing to note shares outstanding they have issued Equity so if you were a shareholder in 2018 your position would have been diluted from around 0.544 billion to 2.3 in that latest quarter now in terms of roic we can see it is positive in 2023 given they did turn a profit previous to that it was a net loss but what is nice to note here it has been get moving the right direction over the longer term 2024 2025 I would like to see some strong double digit just to give us faith that management are able to effectively allocate their Capital the same could be said for the margins again moving in the right direction we do note there was negative quite some way as well in 2018 but since that point moving in what we like to see as a positive margin free Cashway margin the same could be said although we see positive free cash flow over the last three years and 34% in the more recent year is a very very strong metric net debt to EIT D earnings before interest tax depreciation amortization now this shows us the balance sheet strength effectively showing us over the last 5 years and next year it is expected it wo a phenomenal balance sheet for this company so let's jump into the valuation of palente here as always if you do enjoy the content values being provided now typically on the channel we get to the intrinsic value by the averages of these four models as we can see for today's episode we only believe the DCF model to be relevant so we have the free cash flow year- on-ear as we can see the average growth rate negative due to the fact that they did have negative for quite some time forward looking we've gone for 25% with that e cash flow tract total debt get we can see here we have that sign of undervaluation now for today's episode we've gone for a low medium and high outlook for the forward free cash flow growth now what we have gone for is what we believe to be the medium if you were more of someone who believed looking at the lower rate at 20% we would plug in 20% here and we could see we'd have a sign of overvaluation now if you were someone who believes actually it should be around 30% and remember bearing in mind with these numbers just the last year was up 280% you would see an intrinsic value of $42 so if you had a low growth rate target upside would be -14% medium 18% and high 61% so it really does depend on what category you do believe the growth if for whatever reason you believe that these numbers you'd like to go higher or like to go lower if you do grab a copy of this model from the pinned comment below you can run your own numbers through whether it's for this company others in your watch list or even if it's those in your portfolio so let's take the 25% medium to the intrinsic value final stage and given that the DCF model is just the intrinsic value we get an intrinsic value here of $31 now the current price at $26 we use that margin of safety of 10% which we use if we believe it meets three criteria a wide Mo is then acceptable up to $27.56 if we believe this we keep going till it's near the current trading price and we can see right now a 15% margin of safety based on our estimates and judgments with the current price not too far off so 15% and what about Wall Street well they forecasting around $32.50 with upside of 25 so they are very bullish on this stock we recently in fact had an analyst upscale their target from $30 to 35 so we have been a little bit more conservative here at $32.50 so there is a lot of upside with this essentially looking at what analysts are saying as always though do you agree with some of those growth rates do you believe they should be higher lower do you agree with this forecast is this one you are adding consistent or maybe one for whatever reason you are bearish on we'd love to hear as always and as always we'll see you on the next one
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