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팔란티어는 매출 성장(2019년 7.43억달러→2023년 22.3억달러), 흑자전환, 현금 증가·부채 감소 등 재무가 개선 중이며 기관 순매수가 우세하다. 다만 CEO 알렉스 카프 등 내부자 매도 3,500만달러가 있고 S&P500 편입 기대가 단기 재료다. 20% 성장률 가정 DCF 적정가는 약 22달러로 현재가(약 24달러)보다 다소 높게 평가되어 월가 기준 상승여력은 거의 없다고 결론지었다.
다듬은 글
palente tier could be the best ever stock in your portfolio and it has a ton of upside right now today we're going to explain why we're going to run through the historical performance of the company we want to look at the numbers their Topline Revenue growth we want to look at their bottom line net income we'll talk about the health of this company their total cash versus their total debt we'll very briefly compare their performance to some of their competitors over the last few years we want to look at what the institutions have been doing whether they've been buying or selling this company and we'll discuss some significant Insider selling that we have seen even by Alex carp himself we're going to look at the financial metrics to see why now could be a great time to start to consider this for the portfolio we'll also run through what exactly is palen here for those that are new to this stock we want to touch upon some of their Q4 highlights that they did release just a few days ago at how strongly this company is growing but we also want to consider some of the downsides with this risk as well why there are some fears about this company continuing to grow over the next few years and what we'll also talk about is whether or not this Friday they will be included in the S&P 500 which could bring some very strong shortterm gains and don't forget as always we're going to run it through the valuation model we'll get to our intrinsic value find our acceptable Buy price given Wall Street forecast as well so very quickly then before we start our analysis what exactly is paler now what they essentially are they're an American company and what they specialize in is software platforms for big data analytics and what we can see here is they make products for humans driven by analysis of real world data and we're going to touch upon shortly why there are some negatives to this and why they have recently been in the news now the company itself they are up already 205% over the last year and over the last 5 years we can see the share price was initially in $229 it went to alltime highs of just under $40 and now we are at the current or in fact near the 52 we High the market cap is very small at 54 billion when you consider the growth of this company if you compare it to the likes of Nvidia nearly 2 trillion and we can see the forward p is sitting around 75 and we'll touch upon that shortly now in terms of the numbers Top Line what we like to see around 3 to 7% for your typical company but we're talking about palente a very fast growing company 743 million reported on the top line in 2019 2.2 billion in their latest annual report so we can see some strong growth over the period in fact they have three times their top line over the last 5 years and we can see year on year they are increasing that Top Line very consistently and we'll look at the last 5 to 10 years percentage wise as well bottom line however they reported a loss in 2019 of 579.015 at 210 million now this is a very big step for them given that for the last four years we can see they were operating at a loss and again we'll touch upon this shortly why this is a very strong thing to consider in terms of the balance sheet a quick health check total cash versus total debt is gone from around 1.1 billion in 2019 to around 3.7 in their latest report so they are holding on a fair amount of cash and it was around three to four times larger than it was 5 years ago total debt then when we take a look at that it is very minimal it was 396 million in 2019 and in their latest report 229 million so not only has their cash increased but their total debt which was relatively small to begin with has also decreased so a very strong sign in terms of that balance sheet sheet strength now very quickly looking at some of their competitors in the application software as we can see here Autodesk atlan Corporation rer Technologies as well as a few others over the last year now they are the best performing up 205% but when we expand that to the last 5 years we do in fact see them as the second best performing behind ddog but as always do remember even this which is a fairly decent return 158% that past performance is never an indicator of future performance so just something to consider institutional ownership fairly low sitting around 34% 592 million of institutional sells in the last 12 months but a lot lot more buying 7.4 billion during the same period so we can see institutions do love this company the largest Buy in Q2 and in fact in every quarter in 2023 the institutions were buying more shares than they were selling and we can see that goes all the way up to q1 of 2022 where we we saw the opposite so not only in the more recent quarter but also over the large part of the last two years institutions have been buying a lot of shares versus selling now typically on the channel while we run companies Through The Insider buying and selling screener that we have here what we like to really point out is that inside of buying is the most bullish signal as it does give us or in fact shows us that management really believe that the share price will go up otherwise they wouldn't be buying shares inside of selling it is more in fact less of a signal just because they do sell for many reasons whether it's Financial or personal but what we want to point out is that over the last 14 days what we see here is over $35 million worth of sales by insiders and notably we have here Alex karp who has sold over 1 million shares netting him just under $25 million now this is one of the reasons why we say it isn't the most barer signal I mean since that point in the share price has gone up 6.33% but it is something we just like for transparency to discuss here on the channel now one of the short-term catalysts for palente here is that they do see or there is a lot of chatter around whether or not they will be included in the S&P 500 now this does get changed on Friday although it could stay the same so all eyes are on that the reason why there is a bullish case for panen here to be included is because they have met the criteria for this in order to be included in the S&P 500 Index you do need to in fact meet the criteria the first one being headquartered in the US which they are the second one having a gap profit over the last four quarters which they have now met having a majority of shares publicly traded and maintaining a market capitalization of at least 14.5 billion now that they do satisfy all of these conditions there is a lot of hope that they will be included however the last time that the S&P did get changed due to the fact that they didn't actually get included the share price did drop so it could be a bit of a gamble if you are playing on that this Friday today but it is important to understand that they can now be included in the S&P 500 Index now just a few things to point out from their latest slide deck from their latest quarters when we look at Revenue in totality it did grow up 20% year on-ear as well as 9% quarter on quarter so it is looking very positive something I wanted to draw out here was that they closed 103 deals over a million doar now this was approximately two times more than what they had a year ago so lots of positives to just pulling out here their commercial customer account also grew up 55% year on-year 22% quarter on quarter so we can understand now why that share price has started to increase very strongly over the last few months now one thing just to note with this company is there is a little bit of bearish news here now yes this is from October but a lot of this does still hold true and it is around the sale of data from governments to these type of companies to gather essentially their analysis now we see here in October 2023 the sale of NHS data is up to the government says the boss as we can see here Alex CP now one of the issues that you have here is a lot of people will not like their data to be sold to these big companies and ultimately it does boil down to the fact if the governments aren't giving these contracts to these companies like Alex carp's paler then as a result overall they could suffer however what we have noticed from their results in their latest quarter we can see deals closed have increased their revenue is increases there aren't any little cracks that do appear right now but always something just to consider in terms of a bearish scenario so in terms of the actual analysis of the metrics let's jump in now free cash flow as always I do draw viewers attentions to the free cash flow as the earnings is susceptible to manipulation by management through accounting we see negative 10 cents in 2018 and this is very very positive this is what I like to see is when a company goes from negative free cash flow to positive because then it means they are going in the right direction and we can see 32 cents in 2023 37 expected in 2024 now there have been some other companies I have analyzed notably on the channel where we see they are negative and that is where you want to be looking to buy these companies where they have one year where it has turned positive and the forward guidance is looking very strong because if you were to buy these companies at the prices where they were essentially just turning around from a negative to a positive that is where lot of money can be made do go check out a video that we did recently the five AI stocks for 2024 as we do discuss some of them there sales growth then what we can see here double digits every single year as we did just run through on their quarterly highlights and year on year but very very strong nonetheless we do see some strong growth in 2020 2021 it could look like it is starting to slow down but again companies that do have these very strong double digit growths especially like palente here it does look like for the foreseeable future this will continue especially given their forward guidance total sales then it has gone from 600 million to 2.23 billion so it is increasing consistently very nicely shares outstanding just something to note whilst we love it when companies do share BuyBacks returning excess cash to investor Pockets we do here see the opposite so they are diluting your position over the longer term but if they are adding a lot of value especially to that share price then this typically shouldn't be a consideration or a worry roic then we do see it turn from negative to positive given the fact that in 2023 they did start to make a profit personally I like to see this at 10% or more just to give me faith that management are able to effectively allocate their Capital but it does look like the trend is moving in the right direction so 2024 and Beyond we should hopefully start to see a lot better metrics for the roic operating margin no surprises there they were making a loss up to 2022 2023 5% again we do want to see this at a higher number but they have just started to turn a positive so again some of this does take a bit of time and patience likewise free cash flow margin however over the last three years looking very strong 34% in 2023 is very positive net debt to evit done no surprises there then this is the earnings before interest tax depreciation ammortization this shows us the strength of the company's balance sheet it wouldn't even take them one day so this is what these are the number of years for a company to pay off all of their debt net of cash on hand so extremely strong there so before we jump into the valuation just to let you if you want to gain access to this as well as a lot of other articles completely free do click on that pin comment below so let's jump into the valuation now of palente here this is very important as well and as always if you do enjoy the content values being provided now typically on the channel we do have four models that we run through to get to our intrinsic value however for paler the only one that makes sense and is relevant is the DCF discounted cash flow model now in terms of the numbers we have the free cash flow year on-ear average growth Freight this will be skewed given the first few years where it was negative but we see in the more recent year 279 per.
now forward looking I have gone lower than analyst estimates to be a bit more conservative at 20% and we will run through some different scenarios shortly but at the 20% with the cash flows and terminal value add them together with the cash subract total debt get to we have our intrinsic value now we have a sign here slightly overvalued as the market value currently is $24 but the key Point here is to note is that with a growth rate of 20% we do see the intrinsic value of $22 now this will change when we change the growth rate but again it is very subjective in terms of the rate but again we're not going to go for something extreme is 279 but if you were looking and you believe that actually you believe it would be higher than 20% at 30% we can see that the intrinsic value changes drastically now a lot of people will believe that the free cash flow will continue to increase at a very rapid rate for the next 10 years but even if you expect not the 279 that we saw in 2022 but even if you were to say 50% we can see that there is a lot of growth for this company at the $140 Mark we can see here now that this would be around six times bigger than the current trading price and six times higher than the current value as we can see here would give a market cap of around $300 billion now a lot of people believe that that could be achievable and hence again it does really depend on that growth rate that you are expecting over the next 10 years now with our extremely conservative rate at 20% if we go to our intrinsic value calculation and again given today's episode is just on the DCF model it will essentially just be this $22 now don't forget you can grab a copy of this valuation model to get to the intrinsic value and acceptable Buy price of companies in your own portfolio and on your your watch list and you can play around with all of these numbers so if you do want to go back into the DCF model and change this to 40 50 66 whatever number you're interested in you can also do that so whilst we would typically use a margin of safety of 10% and then we would use that only if we believ it meet three criteria a wide mode we can already see it isn't out there yet in fact we do believe that the intrinsic value is slightly lower than the current trading price so what does Wall Street believe well they see the share price around $24 with very minimal in fact -3% upside so overall in our conclusion Wall Street really see no upside to this stock at the current trading price our intrinsic value is a little bit lower but again do bear in mind that is off a 20% growth rate over the next 10 years and if you do change that if you are a lot more optimistic you do believe it can be a lot higher then again that will change the intrinsic value and again you can grab a copy to play around with these numbers as always though it is very objective this is a company that could really really grow on that share price as well as the business given how the last few years have performed as always I'm interested in hearing your thoughts I'll see you on the next episode and for now take care and don't forget to subscribe
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