저자: 미상 · 외국인
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디아지오(DEO) 상반기 실적에서 EPS 전년비 7.1% 하락, 매출 1.4% 감소(라틴아메리카 -23.5%)했으나 2024년 하반기 성장 기대. 1년 수익률 -17.7%, 배당 안전성 점수 99, 배당 귀족주로 장기 배당 성장 강조. 밸류에이션 모델 평균 내재가치 약 $154, 현재가 대비 안전마진 5% 수준으로 지금은 매수 매력 낮다고 결론. 미국 증시 자산 중심 분석으로 대상 자산 목록 종목에 대한 직접 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
Deo has reported their earnings their price is towards their 52 we low they're down 177% over the last year is this now an undervalued strong buy let's take a look as usual we will look at their Topline growth year- onye their bottom line growth as well we're going to take a look at the health of the company total cash versus total debt we'll also analyze how well they've performed versus their competitors Over The Last 5 Years we'll talk about their dividend safety we'll look at dividend yield Theory and some very strong financial metrics we'll take a look at the institutional ownership whether these institutions are buying quarteron quarter we'll also run them through The Insider buying and selling screener and we will take a look at their earnings to see how well or how poor it just was and don't forget we will run them through the valuation model getting to the intrinsic value as well as that acceptable Buy price given wall Street's forecast as well for the next 12 months so let's take take a look at their earnings and see what is going on with this company they did report their interim reports for the half F of fiscal 20124 now earnings per share came in down 7.1% year over-year to just over $1 now a few different reasons we have mentioned this when we have run through this company soft sales lower organic operating profit and a higher finance charge although some of these were offset by reduced taxes and higher incomes from their Associates and the impact of the share BuyBacks so not great you don't want to be investing companies where their earnings per share are declining year on year but let's take a more holistic view let's look at other pointers as well their net sales also declined 1.4% year onye and again a few things to note with this company given it is based in the UK the currency impacts it does have an effect on their Top Line and we can see they did have a huge decline in the Latin America and Caribbean by 23 .
5% again we have touched upon this as well reduced consumer demand from the macroeconomic pressures in the region so a lot of things just to bear in mind we have covered this when they did come out with that reduction which they were expecting although they had anticipated around 20% not 23 a half and a few things to note with their 2024 Outlook they do expect organic next sales growth in the second half to be better than the first half although not massively gaining on that just steady growth so again just something to bear in mind fiscal one of 2024 wasn't the greatest for Doo they're hoping fiscal 2 is a lot better so they are down 177% over the last year over the last 10 years you would be up 22% on your position it doesn't include those dividends reinvested and we do see here they have hit their all-time high at the back end of 2021 at $217 now the training 12mth yield just below 3% and a forward PE of around 18 in terms of their Topline Revenue what we'd like to see 3 to 7% steady growth year-on-year 16.3 billion reported in 2019 22 billion reported in 2023 so yes nice growth over the last 5 years I just would draw your attention to it hasn't been very consistent 2019 it did fall in 2020 although you can justify that Co year on the more positive it did bounce back following that drop in terms of the bottom line net income 4 billion reported in 2019 4.7 billion in 2023 so their bottom line has increased by around 20% over the last 5 years but again it does follow that essential Top Line it did drop in 2020 rebounded nicely into 2021 and then consistently increases after that so yes very mixed we do understand Co the impact on the company but nonetheless it is still growing over the longer term very quickly then total cash versus total debt 1.3 billion of cash and and short-term investments in 2019 1.5 billion in their latest quarterly report so they're holding a little bit more cash around 10% more than they did 5 years ago in terms of that total debt well 16 billion in 2019 22 billion in their latest quarter report so their total debt is increasing at a faster rate than their cash we will touch upon that shortly as it does impact the dividend safety and the net debt to ebit diametric so let's take a look at some others in the distillers and venters Industry we have constell Brands perard Ricard and a few well-known others so over the last year including dividends reinvested they are one of the worst performing in fact one of the middle performing as the industry as a whole hasn't performed that well down 15% the best performing as we can see here constellation at 9% over the last 5 years when we take a more wider approach they are up only 8% and we can see in actual fact the industry as a whole hasn't been the greatest to have your money in over the last 5 years again we do see constellation the best performing up 54% nonetheless just because it's only been 8% over the last 5 years it doesn't necessarily mean that is an indicator for future performance so we have the institutional ownership now around 88 Million worth of sales by these institutions over the last 12 months over the same period more than double the buys at 2.2 billion so yes institutions do quite like this company they have been buying more than selling and if we look particularly at 2023 q1 one a lot more buying as well as Q2 Q3 we see the opposite but we do know in Q4 again in the more recent quarter more buying by these institutions always do notice that with institutional buying you should essentially be doing your own due diligence and not just copying it is just one level of our research we have run this company through the essential screener for Insider buying and selling over the last year there is nothing to note here so let's jump into the dividend safety a score of 99 very safe market cap 81 billion now it is a large cap company last recession well they increased the dividends they had plus 5% growth and they had a near recession return at- 51% versus the snp's 55 dividend growth well last four year 5% last four years or in fact Last 5 Years 4% on average year- on-ear remember we do see as a minimum you want to be getting 4% just to keep up in line with inflation and over the last 20 years 6% year onye one thing to know in more positive news they are a dividend Aristocrat they have been increasing those dividends for the last 25 years dividend yield Theory we have a sign of a massive undervaluation with the yield above the 5-year average although do bear in mind we never look at any of these models in isolation forward P 18.4 again below that 5year average so we have a double sign of undervaluation and we know the consumer staple sector p is slightly higher 18.9 free cash flow payout well new viewers you should note that we don't look at the earnings it so we focus on free cash flow one example is 2023 which is the more recent year 98% of free cash flow if you looked at the earnings it'd be 49 and what this essentially shows us that in 2023 management nearly paid out what they paid out in dividends the same amount they generated in free cash flow so a bit of a red flag indicator just better to note in 2024 they are expecting this to come down to 74% free cash flow well nearly doubled over the last 10 years important to note it is very inconsistent over the longer term but it does move in the right direction and from 2021 it has been coming consistently down 2024 they are expecting to see some growth finally at $19 sales growth well we can see the last three years very strong we do look for 3 to 7% we also note that you could argue the cyclicality of the business with three years negative in fact that Co year ofus 9% we see that again in 2014 in terms of total sales well 10 billion in 2014 17 billion in 2023 they have been increasing that by around 70% over the last 10 years but it hasn't been consistent so do bear that in mind in your own investment approach shares outstanding they have done share BuyBacks 2.52 billion 2.27 billion so they are buying back shares they are returning excess cash to investor Pockets so that is nice to note it isn't a lot but it is nice that they have been buying back around 10% of those shares outstanding in terms of roic as always my personal preference 10% or more gives us and it is consistently fairly strong so I would give that to management it is a green tick next to their name when we are looking at our investment thesis margins looking very strong pretty much 30% consistently year on year above the minimum 16% for Consumer Staples free cash FL margin while it has been more inconsistent 11% in 202 3 is still looking nice and it is above that 7% given they have been struggling and hopefully will turn it around we should see this number start to go up net debt to earnings before interest tax depreciation amortization now remember because this shows us the balance sheet strength and dividend safety we did take a look at the balance sheet with that debt increasing faster than cash nonetheless a score of 2.6 which means 2.6 years for them to pay off all of their debt net of cash on hand it is below that four so it is quite strong in my opinion the dividend is safeer now we do see a very safe score and the balance sheet still looks to be secure so in terms of the valuation as always if you do enjoy the content value is being provided smash that like button hit the we start off with graem's valuation formula now we have the stock ticker symbol the earnings per share the growth rate per analyst estimate and that corporate bond yield we get an intrinsic value now below the market value so we have our first sign of overvaluation do bear in mind though we don't look look at any of these models in isolation multiples we then have the earnings per share and P multiple of companies in a similar sector and size multiply the average P by that of Deo we get an intrinsic value showing us our first sign of undervaluation then for the dividend discount model now this is what they paid out in GBP so we have the latest dividend increase which came to $5 in total growth rate around 5% Over The Last 5 Years slightly higher than the average we are a bit more optimistic about these increases and we can see this does show that undervaluation signal discounted cash flow we have the free cash flow year on year we've gone forward looking in essential roughly what the average growth rate is around 9.66 in combination with the e cash flows tract total debt get to the equity value divided by shares outstanding we get pretty much an overvaluation signal although it is pretty much a few cents shy it's a reasonable valuation for the intrinsic value is just the average of the models that we see on the screen so for today's episode it does come to $154 now in terms of the current price what we typically do is use a margin of safety of 10% if we believe it has a wide mode we can see for a 10% margin of safety it would need to be around $139 so it doesn't give us that 10% margin just yet in terms of what Wall Street are forecasting over the next 12 months well they believe it to go higher than our calculated intrinsic value of around $166 price Target and 14% upside so right now for do we see around 5% margin of safety pretty much at the current trading price it isn't one that I will be looking to invest right now for me to add this it would need to be at a fairly significant margin of safety but is this one you are adding to or maybe one you have added to the past and are waiting for a further drop to add this again as always if you enjoy the episode smash that like button hit the Subscribe button see you all on the next one and take care for now
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