원문 보기
the rebel capitalists show going back to your interview with Jack Swagger I remember it actually had to be in the late 80s because you talked about the bubble in Japan that was brewing and of course hindsight is 20/20 but that's just a magnificent call and what really was amazing to me is is you not only kind of called the bubble but you were short the bubble and then you also I think you called the bottom too because you're talking to Jackie he said I don't know if it's gonna go from 30 to 20 it may even go down to 12 and I don't have a chart in from him but it got close to 12 it pretty much stayed there so that was a heck of a call but when they go to 12 I'm just gonna I mean I sometimes I get it right it went to 7 it went to about 9 8 or 9 us in 2011 I started buying Japan and then the tsunami hit well tsunamis a disaster but back to our earlier conversation so stocks collapse again I was already buying I couldn't believe how wonderful this was you know so I started buying Japanese what's a 77,000 so I started buying Japanese shares back to the point of when you see a disaster you should 2011 okay 21 years after got a collapse no no no as many years later okay got it so I wanted to go back to when you were talking with with Jack and asked you when you saw I mean you were just adamant that it was a bubble there was no doubt in your mind and so I wanted to ask you what you saw that made you believe that it was a bubble number one and then if you see any similarities with the the US market as of two or three months ago lots of all bubbles look the same George doesn't matter where they are or when in history you know in Japan Oh a golf club membership cost more than a condominium on Park Avenue meaning 5 seconds late 80s yeah yeah everything skyrocketed probably the the imperial palace whether by the emperor lives that plot of land in Tokyo was worth theoretically worth more than the entire state of California property I mean it was I mean the sound of insane right they are but this is what happens in bubbles and people were telling you oh this is normal you don't understand the Japanese they're different from we are they don't put their trousers on one leg at a time what do you mean it's going on and on about how the Japanese are different and you don't understand the mentality and blah blah blah and also Jim I'm sorry to cut you off but I just want to make sure everyone understands the Bulls back then we're also saying that there were some accounting differences to why the multiples in Japan were actually justified and so that I know it's because I think that nowadays we look back and say wow how could you not see that it was a bubble but just like now there were plenty of bull arguments for the market continuing to go up every bubble in history George there are all these arguments about how it's different whether it's the acai doesn't matter what it is people will come up with reasons about a wise difference and and nuts like me will sit and say do you really believe that and you know what they do they really don't believe that because everybody believes it and that's one of the definitions of a double bubble you know people skeptics get hounded laughed at ridiculed the US market in December January weren't that bad it was not nearly as bad but it was certainly was a bubble the US market been going up for 10 years there at the last three months as you know it skyrocketed had a blow off kind of thing everybody was convinced it was when it go on forever always something comes along to pop a bubble this time it happened to be there one of these the reasons is this epidemic I mean you asked me the reaction has been nuts overblown craze but who cares about what I think the the facts are and I have to live with the facts the facts are it's closed down the world yeah at what point would you consider the S&P cheap what depends on what's happening in the world I mean if America is at war with Iran we have to be very cheap if it's just a collapse or normal air market collapse yeah with everybody giving up and panicking that's another thing i thats a question I cannot answer George you should watch all right watch rebel capitalists okay that's right no problem okay so let's go back to your days at Columbia and try to use this as more of an instructional question and I know back then you would have your students look at charts and I know you're not a big fan of technical analysis or anything like that but you would have them look at charts and see anomalies at going back to the eighteen hundreds I think even further back than that in different commodities and stocks and markets and then you'd have them try to figure out why the anomaly took place and it when what could they have done to foresee it happening so do you still think that's a good approach for someone that's trying to learn how to invest in today's day and age would you have them do the same type of thing I did not have them look at charts as Chartist right I had them look at the chart to get to historical perspective so that they can see oh you're stuck this stock or this whatever it shot up and such in such a time why did it shoot up what caused that and how would you have figured it out in fact if you go back and look at cotton cotton in 1861 cotton went from half a cent to a dollar in six months now you might know why car I don't from well the war between the states broke out in 1861 the south fire on Fort Sumter and so it cotton came from the southern states right uh the price of cotton went from half a cent to a dollar now I was not long I wish I'd been around for that fantastic for anybody who had the good sense to foresee what was coming and that's this kind of thing I said okay guys look it up and see what happened most people like you don't know why but and now you understand why that happened but there's always a reason that things happen and if you can figure them out in advance you'll make a lot of we can all figure them out afterwards that's easy but that's the sort of thing I was trying to teach them to do okay let's see what's happened and the chart the chart just T just shows you what happened break hard and watch them have a cent to a dollar okay now let's figure out why they went from a half a cent to a dollar you know you you name it university computer in the late sixties anything with computing in the name skyrocketed so then you would look at these charts and figure out why what was happening to cause this kind of action that's what I was trying to teach him I wasn't trying to teach him about charts I was just using the chart as a historic record it's a place to start yeah and and just one quick question on top of that did you ever learn to play squash I played squash and tennis every day until my rotator cuff I didn't know I had a rotator cuff the cuff went out so I had to stop right okay now I know that when you were talking about the Japanese market it's going back to that speculation that you were concerned and you didn't want to ride it all the way down to twelve or seven I think you said you're gonna get out around 20 because you thought the Japanese might pull some tricks to make it hard for you to cash in on the trade so my question that might be more applicable to today if I know back in March when the S&P was hitting its lows because of the the virus there were a lot of talk about the market closing in fact for three months six months so if we start to go down again an SP do you think something like that may happen that you would be a little more hesitant to short the the market because you might have problems cashing in on that well I'm not gonna pick on any particular nation but throughout history countries have and exchanges have change the rules right and when things go along and George you have to remember the members are the most important but get the investing public we got to take care of the members of the exchange first and they change the rules our country's changed government changed to change the rules is this good no of course it's not good it's a free-market capitalism no it's not free-market capitalism is it crony capitalism of course it is but it happens and if you're not aware that it can happen you can get caught uh in trouble so you should always be prepared that somebody might do something out of the blue that's not good for you so you have to watch to see who is getting hurt and who is benefiting and be ready be prepared you
Comments 0