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결론: 텔라닥(TDOC)은 2분기 실적이 성장 둔화와 비용 급증으로 매우 나쁘며, 기술적으로 약 130달러대까지 하락 가능성이 있어 매수에 신중해야 한다는 견해. 실적 개요: 미국 유료 방문 수는 전년 대비 약 1% 증가에 그쳐 이전 20%, 15% 성장에서 크게 둔화됐고, 2021년 총 방문 수는 약 30% 성장 전망이라는 설명. 재무 상태: 현금성 자산이 약 7억8,300만 달러로 재무상태표는 비교적 건전하다고 평가. 매출과 비용: 매출은 2억4,100만 달러에서 5억300만 달러로 약 100% 증가했으나, 매출원가·광고마케팅(약 2배)·영업(약 3배)·R&D(약 4배)·일반관리비가 급증해 총비용이 약 2배 이상 늘어남. 수익성: 영업손실이 전년 대비 약 10배 확대되고 분기 순손실은 약 7,800만~7,900만 달러 수준으로 악화. 6개월 기준으로도 분기당 약 8,000만 달러 손실 페이스. 희석과 현금흐름: 가중평균 주식 수가 약 7,600만 주에서 약 1억5,600만 주로 두 배 가까이 늘어 주주 희석이 심각. 영업현금흐름은 플러스지만 주식보상비용 1억7,000만 달러 가산 효과 때문으로 질이 낮다고 평가. 기술적 관점과 전략: 현재 주가는 약 138달러 시간외 기준이며 130달러 부근 하락을 예상. 178달러 돌파 전에는 매수하지 않을 것이라고 밝힘. 130달러 아래로 떨어지면 지지선이 없어 추가 하락 가능성. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드의 ARK 펀드(ARKK, ARKG 등)가 TDOC를 대량 보유하고 있어, 그녀가 매도하면 추가 하락과 기회 모두 있을 수 있다고 언급. 리스크: 과거 레보고(Livongo) 인수가 성장 정점에서 이뤄져 과도한 비용을 지불했을 수 있다는 평가. 실적 반등 시나리오도 제시되었으나 조건부.
다듬은 글
what is going on investors hopefully you guys had a great day out there time to talk about teledoc health a ticker symbol t-d-o-c or t-doc like i like to say now this company just reported their q2 financials and it is indicating a slowdown which we actually talked about here on the channel on the last video that we did a few months ago we will get into the numbers i'll show you the slowdown from a percentage basis we'll get into the assets the liabilities will get into the profits and the big time losses that we're seeing over this company and why i've not been recommending this stock now from a technical perspective we were up over 300 on this one our last video we published was april 28th it's right here april 28th i don't have a fair amount of views on this one but man i was answering comments on this video as late as like last week people saying hey i didn't know what i was talking about this stock was at about 175 i didn't like the stock it traded all the way down to 130 now it came all the way back to 175 but now we are all the way back down in the after hours trade back down to about 138 dollars per share tell you what this might be creating a buying opportunity for tdoc from a technical perspective okay from a fundamental perspective we'll get into that here in a second now one thing that is propping this stuff up stock up and is kind of holding it up in my opinion keeping it an elevated valuation and it hasn't sold off even more is look you got arc funds over here at a 5.6 percent rating this is on their arc their flagship fund the rk and then you got the arcg which is like the genomic revolution this stock is actually the highest weighted stock in that entire portfolio at six point eight two percent if kathy wood changes their minds on tdoc that would slide the stock even further than i think you've seen over the last few months now the q2 financials do indicate a little bit of a slowdown we're seeing us a u.s visit fee access gained like one percent it was basically flat year over year versus growth of 20 and 15 percent in previous periods so you're definitely seeing a slowdown in terms of visits the other thing that you're seeing is total visits for 2021 is estimated between 13.5 and 14 million visits implying 30 growth and you might say 30 growth is great well i just did a video on google i just did a video on microsoft and i just did a video on apple and they're all growing at this 29 clip if not faster and they have way more money and way more profits and dividends and buybacks and those types of things when we get over the financials over at tdoc you don't got any of that and not only that you grew 156 percent in 2020 156 percent in 2020 and a lot of people made comments on my previous video that i got to factor in the lavongo merger we did a video last august on the lavongo merger and how i don't understand that deal and how that will impact the financials well guys does it doesn't look like the market cares about the levongo deal since this stock has been kind of in free fall for several months now the other thing to factor in is teledoc bought lavongo when it had 156 percent growth last year if you buy something at the top of the growth rate you are going to overpay for that and i think we'll find over time that teledoc and levongo merger was not great from a financial perspective okay because it's like buying a house in 2007 it was like buying stocks in 1999 you know those types of things it the business basically fell off a cliff shortly after that here's the evidence of this u.s paid membership this is visits it's basically all quarter over quarter up just one percent on this one not necessarily something i'd focus on too much look you don't necessarily have to grow your business you can rape raise prices you can you know create other services as well the visits while is an indicator of growth over a teledoc not necessarily the full story so i'm not going to focus on that too much they do lead their financials off with a balance sheet and they do look relatively healthy forgive me if i refer to any of these numbers in billions i just got off the heels of doing fang which almost all their numbers on their financials are in billions so i might be in habits of saying that but this cash and capital equivalent in the left hand column was just six months after the right-hand column is right at 783 million dollars they got a ton of cash over at this company they've got a lot in receivables as well they've got a little bit on short-term investments all things being considered they've got 1.1 billion dollars worth of of total current assets the vast majority of that is actually cash from a asset perspective they're looking really good as you adm as you would imagine a company like this while they do have some total liabilities the current ones sitting at a 260 276 you've got some other ones sitting here including some deferred taxes and a convertible note which is a little bit different type of liability all things being considered this company is very very financially healthy from a balance sheet perspective but that is where things end at least when we get to the statement of operations this is revenue this is profit here's our revenue our quarter ended here right hand column over left hand column is quarter over quarter on a yearly basis the right two columns is quarter a year excuse me six months over six months half a year half a year on a basis of that sense now revenue coming in look at this growth okay and this is what's going to kick off press releases this is what management is going to talk about on the call is the fact that they went from 241 million dollars all the way up to 503 million dollars guys that's greater than 50 percent excuse me 100 growth on the revenue side that is fantastic and no one is going to sit here with a straight face and say they wouldn't want or don't appreciate 100 revenue growth we're seeing a similar story over the last six months look this company's doing a fantastic job at growing their revenues but what they're also having a fantastic job of doing is growing all our expenses take a look at this our cost of revenues went from 90 up to 160 which you would expect okay you would expect if you grow your revenues by a hundred percent or more you'd expect your cost of revenues to grow in a not necessarily equally but in a rather spectacular fashion that's what we've seen but take a look at this advertising and marketing went from 47 up to 103.
we more than doubled our advertising and marketing so let me tell you what if i owned a small business i don't care what it is a restaurant a small business a coffee shop whatever it is if i doubled my advertising and marketing and my revenue didn't double as well i'd probably question the effectiveness of that advertising and marketing so the company doubled their advertising and marketing and they doubled their revenue that can not be sustainable especially when you factor in take a look at sales 3x more than 3x from 18.7 million up to 64 million dollars technology and development nearly quadrupled from 23 million up to 80 million so yes we doubled our revenue and that is great and that's all the bull investors and the management is going to stuff down your throat is that we doubled our revenues but hello we doubled our advertising and marketing over tripled our sales number we nearly quad tripled our technology and development acquisition integration and transformation cost this probably has to do with the levongo merger as well so yeah i didn't factor those in the financials those 11xed over there were really 10x over the last quarter on a quarter over quarter basis still not good here's general administrative probably the leakiest of all the expenses like the ones you hate to see go up the most because it's not tied to r d it's not tied to sales it is tied to just general and administrative yeah you guessed it that pretty much doubled as well and you have depreciation and amortization on here which you can add back if you want to uh that's probably why they include that on here but that's sitting at 51 million dollars you've got total expenses going from 248 million all the way up more than a double to 582 so yes we doubled our revenue over at telegr teledoc over the last quarter but we more than doubled our expenses to gain that revenue so if your kids set up a lemonade stand in front of your house and one weekend they lost money and the next weekend they spent twice as much on the lemonade and the employees and marketing and they still lost more money the next week you'd probably have to sit your kids down and explain to them they might not be running a great business and that's basically what we're seeing here with teledoc you see for the sixth month it all holds true as well okay our cost more than doubled they went from 450 million more than doubled that up to 1.1 billion dollars in total total cost again that's on revenue of 956 million dollars you had total cost of 1.1 billion dollars so you guessed it when you come down to operating income or in this case loss from operations you're sitting 10 times more than 10 times the loss than you did last year you lost 7 million dollars you were at a turning point some people might have said from a profitability perspective and that completely got wiped away because now you 10xed your net loss at 78 nearly 79 million dollars of losses in a quarter and we see really over the last six months it's the same thing they're on like an 80 million dollar run rate in terms of losing money every quarter because you're at 160 in the previous period you were at 28 million dollars now could it get worse if you're a holder of teledux shares and spoiler yes it does because as bad as these numbers are and we could flow down to earnings per share net loss those types of things i don't typically focus on that because you have loss of extinguishing on debt you have interest expense not that these things aren't important paying taxes those types of things but i like to focus on how well the business is running because all these other things taxes debt that all has a way of solving itself if you're making money and this company is not and now like i said could it get worse you you doubled your revenue but you 10xed your net loss it gets worse because take a look at the weighted number of shares outstanding 76 million in the previous period you were one of 76 million now you're one they basically doubled the amount of shares outstanding to 156 million so you got deluded by more than 50 percent you kathy wood and anyone holding this stock has absolutely got obliterated by dilution let's move on to cash flows they actually paint a pretty nice story and why is that we pulled down this net loss number we got our six months ended here pull down this 333 million dollar net loss hello we're at 55 million so it's just accelerating but you get to add back in depreciation which i'm maybe not necessarily argue with but stock based compensation take a look you get to add back 170 million dollars for this company to 10x their loss from operations they like quan tippled their stock based compensation it went from 40 million up to 170 million dollars you get to add that back in you get to add back in deferred income taxes you get to add back in some interest loss on extinguish of debt that means cash flows provided by operated activities 134 million dollars positive but keep in mind a 169 million dollars of stock based compensation if you did not pay the employees at teledoc in stock do you think they would work there probably not unless you paid them in bitcoin or or cash or or real estate or something else that goes up or it's supposed to go up like stock sometimes does now it has not been happening over teledoc all things being considered with the cash flow statement that's a little flawed on a company like this i would focus primarily on this loss from operations the fact that it went up tremendously and that is because our total expenses went up as fast as our revenue growth and so our expenses are growing as fast as the revenue growth and the growth is looking like it's starting to really maybe plateau if not fall off a cliff that is having investors is seriously worried about the stock and they've really seriously been worried about this since the beginning of the year the stock has was at 300 per share again came down here to 175 i posted a video said i i posted videos all along here and from a technical perspective it might be saying different things now i just absolutely destroyed this company as much as i possibly could from these financials because these are an absolute complete disaster but here's the beauty of the stock market and why we look at fundamentals and technicals because they don't always agree from a technical perspective we're eight dollars away from an area where i think you could legitimately if you feel like it buy this stock because it was a bouncing point here now it would not necessarily the hardest resistance point or the area of support we have some candles back here where it kind of floats into not necessarily an area where i'd expect a lot of sport actually a little bit higher about where the stock is right here it acted as some support here was kind of support resistance here was support here and we broke through that that's why i'm looking lower on this one and anticipating this one probably coming down to this 130 range look if you own teledoc at a higher price and you want to average into that first i'd ask yourself why would you want to do that okay it's like invest your kids have lost money quarter over quarter every weekend for a year selling lemonade and they're coming in and saying hey daddy we need more money at some point you got to sit down and have a realistic conversation is this company is this business worth investing in at the current time they're doubling the dilution they are losing lots of money it doesn't look like in my opinion that that is going to reverse and not only that our revenue growth while it's spectacular right now doesn't appear that it will continue that type of growth in the future this one likely will come down here in my opinion down into the 130 low 130 range can you buy it at that point expecting some kind of bounce sure i'd have a really tight stop-loss if i bought this stock at 130 i would come down here to 127 125 because if you get lower than 130 on this stock it's just like when you broke these technical levels up here at 230 and 250 and 211 you know you start breaking this and there's not a lot of support for this stock okay it goes back down into levels that it has not seen in several years probably the you know below 100 per share on this one so from a technical level i could see we could come down here to the 130ish range give or take a couple bucks and it could bounce okay you really from a bullish perspective i would not be bullish on this stock and in my opinion this sounds really weird maybe if you haven't been investing very long in the stock market i wouldn't buy this stock in fact unless it got over 178 i would then you're on you've broken technically the overhead resistance that's been created twice here at 174 or so on this stock i'd want to break above that you break above that and it brings in all these candles right here from about 170 180 on this stock all the way back up to 300.
so if this stock can form a bottom here and maybe that's what we're doing we fell off a cliff we're still falling people are still digesting these numbers we consolidate down here between 120 and say 150 170 on this one then you break above 170 and it can be a rally mode so that's what you're hoping for with teledoc they've got to turn this around at some point from a financial perspective because they've run out of rope for the most part with investors outside of someone like kathy wood and if kathy would digest these numbers and starts dumping t-doc i tell you what you got to look out below i would probably cut and run if kathy wood cuts out of this stock because that would create a ton of negative news and in my opinion could create an even better buying opportunity to get kathy wood out of this one kind of propping it up from a number of different ways well look this thing would sell off and you might get a nice attractive price down there so we'll see what happens with tdoc but that wraps it up on today's video if you agree or disagree feel free to leave me a comment down below i try to read as many as i can i try to respond to as many as i can as well hopefully you had a great day out there good luck with your investments
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