저자: RobMaurer/JimCramer · 외국인
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테슬라 2021년 2분기 실적은 매출 약 4%, 이익 50% 이상 시장 예상을 상회했으나 주가는 소폭 하락했다. 하락 원인으로 실적발표 콘퍼런스콜에서 머스크가 공급망·반도체 부족 등 어려움을 강조한 데 따른 실망감이 지목됐다. 두 출연자는 이를 머스크가 업계 난관을 부각해 성과를 돋보이게 하려는 의도로 봤다. 비트코인 관련 2,300만 달러 손상차손은 전체 이익 규모(10억 달러 이상)에 비해 무의미하며, 비트코인 가격 상승으로 매도 시 이익 가능성도 언급됐다. 전기차 경쟁 관련해서는 전기차 침투율이 약 2~3%에 불과해 테슬라가 시장을 독점하기 어렵고, 2030년 점유율 목표 20% 수준이라 나머지 시장을 두고 경쟁의 여지가 충분하다는 시각이 제시됐다. 태양광 설치는 전분기 대비 감소했으나 전년 대비 3배 증가했고, 매출 비중은 아직 작지만 향후 주목할 사업으로 평가됐다. 베를린·텍사스 공장 및 신형 배터리 양산 효과로 생산이 향후 2~3배 늘어날 것으로 전망됐다. SNX(솔라시티 계열 등 에너지 사업 통합 가정) 편입 시 분기 매출 약 25억 달러, 매출총이익 약 7.5억 달러가 추가되어 주당순이익 약 0.5달러 증가가 예상되며, 이 경우 현 주가 기준 선행 PER이 약 100배 수준이라는 계산이 나왔다. 출연자들은 테슬라의 장기 성장성과 경쟁사 대비 우위를 긍정적으로 평가했다. 전반적으로 단기 주가 하락은 실적 자체보다 경영진 발언 톤에 대한 실망 탓이며, 펀더멘털은 견고하다는 결론이다.
다듬은 글
hi i'm jim cramer here for special edition of the street live i'm talking all things tesla uh we've got the tesla daily host and tesla investor rob maurer uh rob let's just get right to it uh the earnings completely well let's just say the obliterated the estimates uh but at the same time i have to ask you like i did on squawk on the street is somehow the magic lost because this was a good quarter i mean i've got the same question for you jim i'm sitting here and i'm seeing the stock down two three tenths of a percent and uh i'm wondering the same thing tesla beat revenue by four percent they beat earnings by more than fifty percent and and the stock is down so you know i'm a little bit surprised honestly because i think tesla did crush it maybe some of the comments on the earnings call weren't what investors were looking for but uh yeah i'm definitely super happy with the results personally look i i think that when i saw the numbers they were terrific on the call i described the the conference call as pedestrian and that he described manufacturing processes and he described uh the same thing that ford gm was saying which is a supply chain issue semiconductor problems is it possible when he says that semi dr shortages is quite serious that it's actually maybe for the first time i'm hearing under promise so maybe he can over deliver if he gets those semiconductors i definitely think that's part of it i also think elon just wants people to appreciate the challenges that the industry and tesla is dealing with right now uh and in light of those challenges just setting the results against those they're even more impressive i think probably to some extent that's what elon's trying to get across obviously he you know doesn't necessarily word it in those terms he's not really about the short-term stock price but i think that's what he's getting at is just how difficult things have been and yet how successful tesla has been uh in that sort of backdrop rob i'm sure there's some people are saying well it may actually be down searching for answers because of the impairment of 23 million for bitcoin but obviously when you think about the giant volumes and the fantastic amount of money made the bitcoin really is just a an asterisk yeah absolutely it's nothing i mean tesla's over a billion dollars in gap profit 23 million is not even a drop in the bucket uh and it was actually less than the impairment was expected to be by most people so uh yeah i think that's you know not not relevant at all bitcoin continues to increase too in price so uh tesla's actually you know their position they're making money on that if they do decide to sell but yeah for me it's largely irrelevant right uh this morning carl uh quintanilla and david faber were we're talking about all the different companies that are coming public or lucid just started trading they converted that spec fisker's coming soon um gm has got some interesting things we are in action alerts b the uh mustang mach e5 the maki did win uh car driver car of the year there's a a pickup that they've got f-150 that's the that's the lightning i didn't hear that that elon was ready with with his pickup could it be competition do you think people are worried about uh competition might be i'm not you know i think tesla's this has been the story for years competition is coming but if you look at the numbers electric vehicles are two three percent of the market right now uh competition has to come tesla's not going to own 100 on the market they're shooting for about 20 in 2030 so there's still 80 in the market uh that these other oems and new startups need to capture and hopefully they can do that you know it's i think it's been a slow start so far but we seem to start getting some traction from other electric electric vehicle manufacturers hey rob there's kind of a cheeky reference um you know let's say a a dig at apple uh and a close ball garden company what did you make of him uh taking a shot at apple could that be one day he's worried about apple coming in or not worried he just likes a contest or is he just having a little fun as he's known to do i think more the latter elon's taken a couple of little jabs at apple over the years you know there's been a lot of talent swapping back and forth between the two companies uh obviously they're you know rivals in terms of who's seen as this forward technology leader uh so i think it's just kind of a little you know friendly jab but i think elon at the same time trying to prod them to you know change their business model a little bit too more towards you know what tesla aspires to do hey why wasn't there more to do about solar given the fact that some people are saying that solar was a bad bet and i think it's going to turn out to be a good bet yeah tough to say tesla didn't really talk too much about solar you know installations were down quarter over quarter but up three times uh year over year so it continues to be just you know a business line to watch it's pretty insignificant to tesla's overall total right now uh but obviously there's tons of potential in that space in the future so it's just going to be something we need to watch for in in the coming quarters you know rob why didn't he talk more about what could be an ultimate success in berlin he's talked before about i mean berlin is right in the face of obviously about bmw and mercedes i'm very hopeful berlin i thought i put in twitter that i thought that i was hoping that that he would talk about how that it's gonna he's gonna take europe by storm but where was the bravado that i like so much milan musk yeah i think the bravado was definitely missing on this call and maybe that's why the stock is you know a little bit down um i think elon is just you know he was really focused on expressing the challenges on this call and i think that was the mindset that he came in with i think there's so much to be happy with you know in the shareholder letter tesla talked about how they all they've got the uh the reliability and the lifetime validated for their new battery which is going to be a huge unlock in terms of volume uh next year from berlin from austin uh and the financial results that we're seeing right now are before those even come online uh and that's gonna double eventually triple production so when you look at the financials and the result um in that context they're just you know they're pretty nutty right well one last question is it possible when he talks about manufacturing he talks about semiconductor shortage when he talks about the difficulty of putting out cars what he's really saying is all of you who think all of you doubters who think that fisker is going to take me on or forward or are worried about rivian uh or are worried about lucid do you know how hard it is to make these cars because to me i felt more shaky about the competitors than i did about elon musk in tesla at the end of the quarter yeah i think that's you know what elon is getting at is how extremely challenging this is and you know at the end of the day elon wants to see more electric vehicles on the road he's not bothered by any competition he wants them to succeed actually which is you know unusual for a ceo to want but uh he's expressing just how challenging this has been for tesla everyone else still needs to go through that pain they're not there yet uh and you know tesla's been working at this for a couple decades others for maybe a couple of years so it's going to be a while for them to also work through the pain that tesla's experienced well i think that's a great analysis and we're going to leave it there i want to thank you rob now for uh doing just putting it in perspective because i think a lot of people are thinking what the heck why is it down i think you nailed every single point so rob can i give you can i give you one more point it's going to be super quick this is the secret this is the secret i think i think everyone is missing this right now with tesla so they demonstrated this quarter how profitable the business is structurally with just model 3 and model y there was almost no volume from snx there was actually a loss on that business when snx comes in the fold that's gonna be another two and a half billion dollars in revenue a quarter it's going to be another 750 million dollars in gross profit and the fixed costs are already there so almost all that's going to drop down to operating income and the bottom line when that happens that's going to add about 50 cents earnings per share to tesla's uh earnings per share gap gap earnings per share that's going to bring the forward pe basically to 100 at current levels and as we just talked about they're poised to triple with berlin and texas so people are missing this um it's an opportunity i think so i just want to get that point across too i'm glad you did i think that is an excellent point i might be able to might bring some of that up tonight on that money well thank you so much for joining me rob i'm off to the daily action alerts plus uh thank you i'm doing my rundown with jeff marks we've got some explaining to doing in on a united parcel that's been a bad one for us but i want to thank you for tuning in it's great to talk to you sir you too jim thanks
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