저자: RobMaurer · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주식분할(최종 거래일 약 891달러→분할 후 약 297달러 예상)과 중국 내 테슬라 수익성 우위 설명. 상하이 전력제한 완화 기대, 기가텍사스 모델Y 주 1,000대 생산 루머, 캘리포니아 2035년 내연기관 판매금지 투표 예정, 폭스바겐·벤츠의 캐나다 광물 확보 MOU, 트위터 내부고발 관련 상원 청문회·SEC 조사 소식을 전함.
다듬은 글
hey everybody rob maurer here and today we are going to be talking a little bit about tesla in china we've also got a rumor on in giga texas some news on california uh banning internal combustion engine vehicles uh more fallout from the twitter whistleblower and a couple of other items as well so first things first here this is the final day of tesla trading around 900 per share because of course tomorrow the stock split will take effect tesla closing today up two tenths of a percent to around 891 dollars per share so post split price depending on what happens and after hours in pre-market tomorrow should be around 297 dollars per share so just prepare for that when you open your accounts tomorrow uh this will also affect options if you have any options contracts uh those will also follow the same logic as a split um there'll be three times as many contracts and you'll have they'll be worth a third of the price so same thing happens there sometimes it takes brokerages a little bit of time to get this all sorted out so you might see some weirdness in your account especially in percent changes tomorrow uh just something to be aware of but we are now uh on our last trading day of the the pre-post split trading prices so now i now have to talk pre-split pre-pre-split uh it'll be even more confusing but um yeah should be should be a good time um i don't have one thing i did want to mention i forgot to pull up the link here unfortunately but before we move on to the rest of the stuff here dan ives did increase his price target to 360 dollars post split so i believe they were at 333 dollars post split before they increased the price target uh but just wanted to point that out as well when we're talking uh about the stock here all right getting into tesla china news so rayford tesla today reporting uh some information that was shared by the ministry of information and technology uh according to their report in 2021 so last year tesla china was the only new energy vehicle maker that was profitable when you exclude subsidy revenue uh that obviously china has electric vehicle credits when you exclude those electric vehicle credits um tesla was the only one of the new energy vehicle makers that was able to show a profit they give the example of byd here they had a subsidy of about 200 or sorry about 5.2 billion rmb so for byd that's about 750 million us dollars tesla was about three point three three and a third billion uh rmb so that's about 500 million us dollars so without that subsidy tesla obviously profitable byd on the other hand not profitable and for byd of course their sales include plug-in hybrids not just pure electric vehicles so even with something that you know theoretically should be a little bit easier to profit on with those plug-in hybrids by d's still falling behind from a profitability perspective i wanted to emphasize this point today because it shows something that is often under discussed not necessarily on this channel or anything but in the media in terms of tesla's advantages a lot of people will look at the comparative specs of electric vehicles market share um you know all these other metrics and try to assess the electric vehicle market from that perspective but it's really leaving out the most important layer of context right which is how profitable these vehicles are for the amount of sales that they're doing and a lot of these units are just going in the market at cost sometimes even below cost uh trying to compete with tesla which is at you know 30 gross margins 18 operating margins when none of these other companies are anywhere close to that they're having to compete with that and their cost structures are so much higher than tesla's it's just not not yielding anything for those companies yet when we talk about profitability which is the entire point of a business so it's nice to look at you know this electric vehicle or that electric vehicle is has this amount of range compared to tesla or this amount of acceleration but at the end of the day if they're not making any money then it's not competitive so it's just really important factor to keep in mind and that's why i wanted to spend some time on this and open with this today so i wish i had some more metrics on this i haven't had time to you know pull and pull all this stuff together i would like to do that at some point just to compare profitability of all these different electric vehicle makers but something we'll do at some point in the future for sure the other update on china this is coming from wu-wa we've been talking about the sit swan power situation of course the restrictions there were extended hopefully those i haven't seen any more news on that i did check today uh hopefully those power restrictions will be lifted as expected later this week uh but we'll have to see we'll continue to keep an eye on that there are some electricity restrictions being implemented in shanghai here was reporting uh but it's primarily around you know what i would call like superfluous uh usage usages of power so things like advertisements uh electronic billboards and things like that that are being restricted not anything to do with uh production so i think i wanted to pass that along and appreciate woowah sharing that context from from the power situation in shanghai as well right next we've got an update on gika texas so joe tag meyer often does drone flyer videos out there he is reporting that according to some of his sources that he has talked to model y production is at 200 plus units per day later on he also says that he believes they're at six days a week of production so we put those together obviously that'd be about 1200 vehicles per week we know tesla or we believe tesla just crossed the 1 000 per week milestone aggregate texas based on that photo that we had talked about earlier i think whole margin shared that that had tesla signing uh i think a hood of a vehicle with or you know maybe a banner for 1 000 per week so this seems plausible for tesla to even be a little bit above that right now if so that's exciting progress in gigatexas so i wanted to pass that along obviously just still a rumor at this point in time but definitely exciting if true all right next up as we had mentioned before a couple of times tesla had scheduled presentations scheduled for the hot chips conference today that's been taking place or it may have been yesterday anyway i wasn't sure if we'd get any news out of this but it looks like we have at least a little bit here so this was recapped by a website called serve the home tesla's couple of presentations here so they've done a couple of different recaps here unfortunately this fortunately and unfortunately this is definitely beyond well beyond my level of technical understanding so i'm just going to link to both of these recaps here in the description today a lot of stuff was similar to the things that tesla talked about at ai day so i think we've discussed most of the high level concepts here i don't think there was anything particularly new from that perspective but in terms of the details i do think that there's probably some significant things here that tesla is talking about that probably they have not talked about in such great detail before uh you can just see through some of these slides kind of examples of of the level of detail that they are talking about and again unfortunately just well beyond my technical level of understanding so for those that are well more versed in that i will put those links down in the description and if you are one of those people definitely feel free to share what you learn uh with us in the comments today that would be very much appreciated all right next up we've got just some news on california kind of weird that this is coming out today but california is planning to ban the sale of new gasoline cars by 2035 so new york times reporting on this here they say that that will be put to a vote tomorrow so we'll have to see if that does pass it sounds like that is very very widely expected uh new york times here points out something that is important california a lot of other states based their energy policies off what california is doing so this could have broader implications for other states and of course federally as well automakers are going to adjust based on what's happening in california too i know a lot of people say you know 2035 by then it's not going to matter because everyone's going to go electric anyway but it is still important especially for you know larger vehicles that maybe right now aren't as prioritized in terms of electrification so it is still important that these deadlines are out there uh it lets automakers know that hey this is you know for sure coming to an end despite what you may or may not think uh and then there are some interesting interim targets which are probably even a little bit more important so the interim targets here are that by 2035 or sorry 2035 is the 100 target by 2026 35 of new passenger vehicles sold must produce zero emissions and that requirement increases to 68 percent i don't know why this chill 68 not bump that up one percent but 68 by 2030.
so those interim targets might even be a little bit more important i think california on its own would probably be tracking to that i don't want to misquote it but i think california might already actually be above 10 so um those at least this first one should be relatively on their current trajectory um but anyway the reason i say it's kind of weird that this is being discussed today is because back in september 2020 so almost two years ago now uh governor newsom signed an executive order basically stating that by 2035 this would happen so uh i'm not familiar with how the you know legislation all comes to be but maybe this is you know more important because the california air resources board now signing off on it but this was you know something that they had been planning on doing for for quite some time now uh one thing that maybe caused a little bit of concern for me toyota seems to be all on board with this they tweeted out today that they continue to share the vision of greenhouse gas reduction and carbon neutrality goals uh with the california iron resources board and the state of california uh i don't know if they're just trying to you know spin that from a public relations perspective and they don't actually agree with it but this definitely does not seem to be aligned with anything that volkswagen has really said uh in terms of their strategy so it makes me wonder if this is kind of as strict as it sounds like it is or if there are some maybe loopholes hidden in there that toyota has gotten in there or you know happy about so unfortunately i couldn't find the exact structure from california iron resources board so i'll keep looking for that if you haven't passed along but that was just something that kind of raised my eyebrows a little bit when when looking at this news today all right next up we talked yesterday about volkswagen looking to secure stakes in mining companies in canada looks like i don't know if they've secured stakes or just memorandums of agreement but looks like volkswagen and mercedes-benz have both engaged in conversations and have secured agreements in california sorry in canada um for for minerals so unfortunately we don't have any details on what exactly memory memorandum of understanding is what i was looking for unfortunately we don't have any details on what exactly those agreements are at this point in time but both of these automakers securing contracts pretty quickly after the inflation reduction act which of course incentivizes battery minerals from north america uh they moved pretty quickly on this so likely expected but uh probably influencing their their choices there all right next up just wanna kind of cover a little bit more of what we have had happen since this twitter whistleblower complaint has been made public so first off here bloomberg reporting that the senate judiciary committee is going to be or has subpoenaed peter zatko who we talked about yesterday so apparently he will be appearing in front of the senate on september 13th so mark that on our calendars in terms of something that could lead to potentially new relevant information in elon musk's court case which is of course scheduled for later in october so keep an eye on that uh it all has also come out today that the sec has been not necessarily officially investigating twitter in terms of these whistleblower complaints but back in june uh even a little bit before some of this elon musk stuff had happened they the sec had already contacted twitter asking them for more information about um the bot situation fake accounts and things like that so twitter of course responded with the same sort of responses that we have that we have heard so far from them so nothing um from that point but uh the sec definitely looking at this already and then we do also have the verge or techcrunch today reporting that ireland france have confirmed that they are also investigating what's happening here with twitter so this is a lot of fallout all of a sudden for twitter um and again i definitely think that strengthens elon's case we do also have the full filing it is redacted but we do have the full filing of the complaint so this has been published i'll link to this in the show notes as well um but there's a whole section in here about uh zako's claims relevant to twitter lying to elon musk about the whole bot situation um among many other things so the 84-page document here just lists you know all these different things talks here about read-only phone only how twitter has been very you know against adopting that policy where you'd have an account verified by a phone number uh twitter executives have been kind of working against that which you know would seem like a pretty easy way to keep the spam in check but yeah a lot of detailed complaints in here and that will be linked in the description as well i know people don't want to go through probably the nuts and bolts of that but if you do let me know and maybe we can take take a look at that in more detail all right lastly then for today an update from elon on spacex and the spacex twitter account as well tomorrow night 7 p.m central time 5 p.m pacific time elon and t-mobile's uh mike sievert i believe that's their ceo will announce plans to increase connectivity uh that's not clear if it's increasing connectivity for spacex or increasing connectivity for t-mobile i guess would be the latter so this could potentially be a huge contract for spacex uh definitely something to keep on the on the radar for tomorrow evening and we'll see what that announcement is all about but that will wrap it up for today so as always thank you for listening make sure you are subscribed and sign up for notifications you can also find me on twitter at tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the thursday august 25th episode tesla daily thank you you
Comments 0