저자: RobMaurer · 외국인
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테슬라 주가는 254달러로 3% 상승했고, 웨드부시 애널리스트 댄 아이브스는 목표가를 310달러에서 350달러로 올리며 2024년 시가총액 1조 달러 도달을 전망했다. 출연자는 캐시 우드(ARK 인베스트)와 머스크의 대담 하이라이트를 정리했는데, 머스크는 테슬라가 실세계 AI에서 압도적 선두라고 주장했다. 사이버트럭 주문 초대는 249명까지 늘었으나 아직 비직원 고객에게는 열리지 않았다. 로이터는 사이버트럭 인도가 4680 배터리 생산 병목에 잡혀 있다고 보도했지만, 진행자는 현재 배터리 생산 속도로 연간 약 2.4만 대 생산이 가능하므로 실제 병목은 아니라고 반박했다. 토요타는 안전시험 조작으로 자회사 생산을 중단했고, 포드 딜러 절반만 전기차 판매에 참여하기로 했다. 예측 관련 발언은 주로 테슬라 마진 안정화와 점유율 확대 기대, 그리고 사이버트럭 생산 확대 전망에 집중되어 있다.
다듬은 글
hey everybody rob mare here and today we're going to go through some highlights from Elon musk's discussion with Kathy Wood of AR invest on X bases today we've also got a couple updates on the cybertruck including a report on 4680 battery production uh and reports on or updates on Toyota Ford and a few other items as well right looking at the stock nice day but uh Tesla up 3% to $254 NASDAQ also with a strong day-to-day bouncing back up 1 and a qu% so Tesla kind of following a little bit better than its normal beta but most most ly probably macro driven performance today I believe after market Clos we did get an update from wed Bush's Dan IES anal covering Tesla says they're raising their Target price for Tesla from $310 per share to $350 per share based on their increasingly bullish view of further EV share gains and margin stabilization in 2024 We Believe Tesla will reach the1 trillion market cap in 2024 as the next phase of growth story underway with musk and Company so I I like this obviously it's nice to see a price Target increase but I like his comment just about margin stabilization and further EV share gains uh especially in the context of what we've seen announcements from other automakers particularly in the US dialing back their EV growth plans a little bit as Tesla continues to take more of that market share if margin does stabilize that will mean eventually earnings per share growth returns we haven't really seen that for Tesla for a while it's it's been a period of obviously margin contraction in terms of profitability or you know gross margins at least so at some point those things will stabilize at some point that will change and that's kind of what Dan Ives is saying here so um hopefully we do see that for 2024 but of course that remains to be seen uh one quick update on yesterday's episode I do have to apologize the two deliveries that we talked about uh one here from um I think Zach and Ella hopefully I didn't get the name wrong but this one and then from Ryan Torres unfortunately upon further review both of these people are employees which good for them however we were talking more about the expansion of orders yesterday going to more normal type of customers uh but these are two employees it looks like so I do apologize for that it's definitely a mistake on my part I did actually do a fair amount of investigating to make the assumption that they were not employees unfortunately that assumption ended up being correct though so apologies for that still exciting to see it go to more employees and hopefully at some point soon we'll see it uh expand further to non-employees as well so again my apologies on that point all right getting into the must disc discussion with Kathy Wood today it was about an hour and a half discussion I'm sure you can find recordings of it um out there we'll hit the highlights though unfortunately even though AR invest they're very familiar with Elon and stuff like that there was a lot that was repetitive for uh you know what we've heard Elon talk many times about before so I tried to just hit highlights that you know most of us would not have have maybe heard before something that at least a little bit new uh and divided those up to sections here so on Tesla Elon of course recapped you know the funding secured Saga back in in 2018 2019 I think 2018 he did say funding was secured going private would have been a distraction for Tesla at that time would have left some investors behind so he said those were the really the two main reasons that they eventually opted not to do that uh for more present day type of stuff though they had a fair amount of time discussing AI again stuff that we've heard a lot about but uh Elon reiterating that in terms of real world AI Tesla is by far the leader uh still his opinion there he also talked about for FSD you really need to have a baby AGI uh in the car for an example that he gave of that he said the car has to be able to read street signs in every language um as an example so of course you know street signs comes in all come in all shapes and sizes there can even be occasions where those are variable you know with digital signs and things like that and the car needs to be able to understand and interpret those things for you know true robot taxi like capability so that was you know an example of Elon giving that there's there's a little little bit of convergence happening in AI spaces whether it's a large language model or something like you know FSD version 11 and moving into version 12 a lot of the Technologies are you know converging in a way um but still viewing Tesla as by far the real world leader in AI um in real world AI because of you know largely the data collect that the data collection set that they have and the capabilities that they have on that end so um again not anything too new that we've heard there but nice to hear them extrapolate a little bit on his or expound a little bit on his thoughts there then they also talked about Nitsa of course this has been a conversation for Tesla Community recently in the last you know week or so since this recall Elon did say though that he has a lot of respect for the enforcement division at Nitsa said quote in my experience thus far they have been really quite sensible so nice to see that he is feeling that way that they're coming to reasonable conclusions don't always agree uh which he gave an example of here but he said they do care about the safety statistics and they do recognize that there's always going to be some risk with cars even if those cars are autonomous vehicles so good to see El you know still feeling relatively favorable even though even in the NIT recall Tesla stated that they didn't necessarily agree with the action uh being recommended and and being taken but nevertheless something that they had to implement so uh good to see that agreement or alignment in general from Elon and then he did note that they do obviously disagree in some occasions he brought up the instances of having to do full stops at stop signs and how no one really drives that way especially if there's no uh complicating factors around so Tesla had to specifically as he has noted before find very rare scenarios where that did happen to help sort of adjust the model uh to drive in that way so create some frustration I think whenever you're training something in a way that is non-human likee it of course opens up opportunities for humans to be either confused or annoyed by those actions which I think anyone that has FSD beta can um probably has experienced at stop signs before if you really let it wait people just don't expect that they don't like it it gets frustrating so hopefully at some point in the future that will change but obviously a point of disagreement right now so this were kind of the main Tesla things they did talk a fair amount about X especially at the beginning couple of interesting updates though as we know X is working on getting money transmitter licenses in all states said they're just waiting for final approval on some of those um he said they he thinks they already have the majority of States approved but it's relevant until they have California and New York just because of obviously the the scale and the size of those uh but he said it would he'd be surprised if it takes us longer than the middle of next year to roll payments out so obviously that would be an exciting Next Step forx which we'll keep an eye out for next year we're not going to go through all these on some of the other companies and just some general thoughts I did just want to put my notes Here in case anyone was curious and doesn't want to listen to the full um xace so feel free to pause the vid pause the video and read through these but again probably a little bit beyond the scope of what we're going to talk about here today all right moving into some cyber C truck updates Tesla has again done another wave of order invitations for cybertruck order holders if we look at the cybertruck Owners Club order tracking sheet there have now been 249 people that have ordered through the through this invitation process if you remember we were stuck at you know 170 or so for a while then we had another small wave taking that up to maybe 180 uh this new wave has now uh combination of that and this new one has now brought us brought us up to 250 so nice to see those orders continue contining to you know be confirmable from Tesla uh and although like we talked like we had thought yesterday we're not seeing these orders go to non employees yet hopefully this is a good sign again of Tesla's um progress with the production ramp in general so we'll continue to monitor that and again check your accounts because sometimes those emails maybe aren't getting to everybody um some people have reported that they can actually go into their account and configure without having received that all right next up on cybertruck this is more related to to 4680 battery production uh we've got another Reuters article report here they say the Tesla cybertruck deliveries are Hostage to battery production hell uh my thought on this headline is I wish this were the case this would be excellent news If This Were true uh but I do not think that this headline is true let me explain so if we look through the article they talk about um first the production rate targets for the Cyber truck they say that c CEO Elon Musk said in October that Tesla would probably hit an annual production rate of a quarter of a million of vehicles quarter of a million vehicles at some point during 2025 but Tesla is still a long way off that kind of production Pace one of the main bottlenecks is the speed of the 4680 batteries used in the Cyber Tru and its new dry battery uh dry coding electr dry coating technology n people familiar with the matter set um I had to laugh when I was reading this because do they not also realize that 2025 at some point in 2025 is also a long way off I mean we're still in 2023 I know we're changing the calendar here pretty soon but uh that is still almost two years away so um they should still be along way off that pace at this point in time and of course plenty of times to ramp that up they say that according to some information that they have reviewed as well as calculations based on some public data that Tesla has shared they think that the current 4680 production rate is sufficient for about 24,000 cyber trucks per year so going back to what I said at the beginning I wish this were the bottleneck because this would mean that cyber truck production rate would already be at about 500 vehicles per week uh if the 4680 battery constraints were the or if the 460s were the constraint then you know that would be excellent for the rest of the Cyber truck production process I don't think Tesla is producing 500 per week yet so unfortunately um you know we're not we're not quite there yet but that would also then mean that the 4680 batteries are are not the current constraint which completely makes this headline um inaccurate so those are my thoughts on it again I I don't think that this is is true um they did share a little bit more information according to these people that they spoke with the people said that the dry coding in the anode portion of the 4680 cells was not problematic but Tesla was still struggling with the cathode um portion of dry coding technology and then they also said which I think is again humorous although they contined to struggle a little bit with that one of the people that they spoke with acknowledged that once you crack the code and established stability it is like an exponential speed would pick up there's already a lot of traction in dry coding so uh again if they're talking about the potential for this to be a limiting factor you got to factor in that this is something that Tesla has been ramping up now for a couple of years we seem to be close to a point where this 4680 battery production is taking that next step up of course Drew has talked on the earnings calls recently about the progress quarter to quarter he mentioned that they are in the process of introducing new 4680 battery production lines so I think it's you know four times the amount of battery production equipment that they'll have up and running here pretty soon so when you both improve yields and pace of production and then multiply your Lines by 4X as long as you can do that before 2025 which you get a lot of time to do uh then potentially not a limiting factor at that point so of course things are going to e and flow throughout the production process on what is the constraints point being right now it does not seem to be 460s even according to re reuter's information here now of course that could change in a month or two months or or whenever but Tesla will continue to make progress over that time um one of the issues that they acknowledged was that two people that they spoke with said that as Tesla tried to scale this up a lot of heat was generated and melted the binder so uh a little bit of specifics in terms of what could be one of the constraining factors on getting that production Pace up right now so I think all of us are aware you know 4680 it's a it's a work in progress in terms of where Tesla's at I I don't think anyone assumed that this was producing hundreds of gwatt hours a year or anything like that so nothing too new in this report uh unless this were true which of course I think would be relatively positive for the rest of the Cyber truck production process but I I do not think that it is all right few quick ones here so Tesla today posted a cybertruck light show kind of cool they you know timed out each of these vehicles to work sort of in combination with each other so not just the exact same identical light show but working um in concert and kind of shows you know just a cool feature for the the daytime running lights on the Cyber Tru and just some of the variability that they have with that other than that nothing you know nice to see nothing too crazy though we've got an update from Tesla uh Tesla Europe on X saying that the model wi just broke the record for most cars sold in Denmark in a single year uh this may sound familiar because we actually talked about this a couple months ago when we thought that this record was broken but as Tesla says here there was actually a higher record that was previous you know previously people were not thinking about it we're not aware of from 1986 that was higher than I think the VW up from 2013 but now the model Y is surpass that as well so unless there is another one deeper in The Archives this should be a record for uh the model y for bestselling vehicle ever in um in Denmark so pretty cool to see that and then just a couple of sort of energy related updates here Tesla energy on X shared a just kind of an example of utility from Tesla Energy Products they say that biod Diagnostics which is a sort of medical testing company and things like that they have blood tests medicines vaccines that of course need to stay at particular temperatures they had significant losses on these because of a power outage from a storm now they have prepared a little bit better by installing solar and power wall to avoid anything like that it's kind of surprising they didn't have a backup generator before obviously I'm sure they wish they did uh but now they do through um through solar and power wall so nice to see an example of that and then just another nice example here Tesla also sharing a video of the cyberu truck hauling some Christmas equipment some holiday Decor uh around for the Golden Gate Park I think they've got a festival there holiday festival and just kind of showed the Cyber Tru helping to set some of these things up so uh fun to see a couple examples of that all right last couple of things we've got update on Toyota today we talked yesterday about their recall for a million Vehicles things continue to get a little bit worse for Toyota this week one of their subsidiaries deatu I'm not sure exactly what the pronunciation is but they have it's been determined that they have been rigging safety tests uh in their vehicles this was found to be a pretty extensive issue and because of this this business unit has paused production um of their vehicles so potentially pretty significant for Toyota this is about 7% of their unit sales it's on the lower end these are kind of entry-level vehicles um primarily produced in I think solely produced in Asia and probably primarily exported within Asia as well but nevertheless this is something that Toyota is now having to um you know investigate a little bit further they talked about how they're going to have to put a lot of time and energy and resources into sort of reorganizing the company to make sure that stuff like this does not occur in the future but uh with the recall you know that's I don't think as big of a deal but um you know a couple of pretty negative headlines for Toyota this week and then lastly for today update on Ford this is from on the Detroit Free Press they are reporting that only about 50% of Ford's dealers have decided to move forward with um sort of a an organization or a deal with Ford to sell electric vehicles at the dealerships so only about half this is temporary though so they will have another opportunity to opt in in the future just want to make that clear because I know a lot of people just seeing the headlines that only half of dealers are opting in there is going to be another opportunity it sounds like in 2027 so it's still a ways out out uh but nevertheless this number this percentage could change um in the future and then alongside this headline for Ford there was a report that Buick their dealers um a little bit different context about 50% of them had taken a buyout from GM uh to not sell electric vehicles so a little bit different there as those those dealers would potentially not be coming back in versus for Ford uh they could so we'll see um I I don't think Ford's probably too disappointed in that I would imagine that if dealerships do opt out that potentially opens up some possibilities for Ford to move into a more direct type of a sales model but um you know we'll see how how Ford approaches that all right that'll wrap it up for today then as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications you can also find me on X Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday December 22nd episode of Tesla daily thank you
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