저자: TomLee · 외국인
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주식시장이 9월 초 급락했으나 펀더멘털 악재는 크지 않으며 계절성 영향이 크다는 주장. 고용지표가 양호해 연준의 연착륙 가능성이 높고 금리인하는 주식에 긍정적. 엔비디아는 과거 30% 조정 후 회복 사례 기준 밸류에이션이 부담스럽지 않아 조정 시 매수 기회. S&P500 하단은 5300~5350 수준이며 연말까지 565~580 목표 제시. 자막 후반은 진행자의 투자 교육 홍보 및 심리 관련 일반론.
다듬은 글
all right fam we got to get right into it the market is not doing so hot right now it's on its way down it's consolidating a lot of stocks are dropping and there's a ton of fear in the market so the market is it crashing or is it just a pullback what's really going on here in the market well we're going to take a listen to what Tom Lee has to say first but I want to let you guys know if you are having difficulty understanding Market sentiment which is a key factor the psychology in the market sentiment and having a strong mind and not being over emot if you're having trouble in the market this could be a big part of that I would love to help you I offer a full training course Discord oneone coaching so I can help you achieve your financial goals and dreams as well as Financial Freedom I would love to have you guys it's a very serious mentorship so if you take it serious and you're committed I would love to have you very limited spots though I cannot take everyone so if you're committed I would love to help you grow your portfolio the link is in the information box below invest with cory.com right there on the screen you guys can sign up there would love to help you guys out I'm driven every single day to help everyone like you achieve your financial dreams just like I did going from bankruptcy to where I am now in 2024 with over $2 million so if you guys would like to grow your portfolio like my current students who are up 10 20 30% in their first month or two I would love to help you guys all of my students are up compared to when they joined I've had many students that joined in the negative they were 5,000 7,000 and now they're positive 5 to 10,000 that's a 20 $20,000 difference in gains that's 200% on their $110,000 portfolio so this is something I do all the time I have students that come in that are in the negative 50% of their portfolio and within a month or two they're all the way in the positive 50% 100% gain a lot of the time students will come in with a $10,000 portfolio and be negative 5,000 which means their value is only 5,000 and I take them at 20,000 in 2 to 3 months that's double the portfolio and full recovery so if you guys want to learn I would love to help you so let's take a listen to what Tom Lee has to say about the market and what's going on well it's been a rough week I mean this September first four days we're down 4% it's actually one of the fifth worst September since 1928 so it's pretty bad um I don't think there's actually a lot of fundamental Arguments for why stocks are down this much but I think we've pulled forward seasonality this September to November period last year was really tough historically it's tough and I I wonder if markets are going risk off early so you believe in the soft Landing story you said there's no fundamental reason for this this is a debate over soft Landing versus something worse Market seems to be tilting towards something worse you say no yeah the reason I I don't think it's something worse and you know we don't know is that the jobs added was better than July remember July was the hard Landing fears because it was such a weak number and in fact the number of Industries adding jobs jumped to 53% that's the the best in 6 months and the unemployment rate fell so I think we're at a point where the FED could engineer soft landing and that's why two weeks from now it's going to be important 50 25 does it matter to you I I think it's going to be how the market interprets either number CU you know there can be such thing as a a doish 50 or a hawkish 50 or a a panicked 50 um even a hawkish 25 so I think the reality is the Fed is on a cutting cycle that's really a a good Catalyst for rotation interest rates are going to fall and it's going to help industries like housing Autos credit cards come out of this recession so I I think it's good news when they start cutting okay what's happening in Tech uh we said that the nasdaq's down more than 5% this week we're having the worst week in about 18 months and the tech sector itself is off more than seven on the week what's going on with that trade uh I mean Tech I think revealed its hand last week cuz Nvidia had a good number but it fell so when stocks fall on good news you know it's either a crowded trade or something bad could be coming and then of course they led the downside this week I I think it is part of this pull forward the seasonality because people want to D risk and Tech is a big holding but I think on the margin there could also be a political aspect to this you know Trump's probability of winning actually increased this week in the betting markets and in the polls and I know investors think he'll be tough on China which would be bad for semis so I think part of this could be fears that a trump gaining is is bad for semis what what if there's just too much priced into these stocks at this point valuations have gotten a little too rich even if they're the greatest stocks in the world which you've made the argument that in fact they are that this is the place you want to be maybe more than any other and what if that's true and the multiples still don't don't make sense um it I I think it's possible uh you know in nvidia's last 10 years of History uh there have been 30% draw Downs almost eight times of similar magnitude uh it's PE Nvidia Fort PE was actually higher at the bottom of those draw Downs you know right now Nvidia Fort PE is in the mid-20s so to me this looks like a normal profit taking maybe it takes Nvidia down to the '90s but I think 2 years from now that's really going to be a gift so when you look at all of these are you a buyer on the dip are you urging people who re your research and listen to you here and elsewhere to do that uh we're close to that point because let's say we thought that there would be a 7 to 10% the risk of a 7 to 10% draw down between now and November we're almost down 5% now I think we're next week we could be within that point of where we pulled forward that entire correction into the month of September so I think we're close to the point where I mean I wouldn't be a seller here and I think the lower range of the S&P is 5400 53 350 we're almost there now you think the move from August 5th to let's say September 5th um was justified was it was it too much was it built on reality what do you think uh it's hard to know I I know that there was Panic that caused that 3-day draw down and the Vic spiked to 66 so we know that there was panic but we also know there was a ton of cash on the sidelines already into August that was put to work and I think part of this was a liquidity because we know the Yen was highly correlated with that move and and it's kind of happening again the Yen's turned strong and it's been putting pressure on stock so you hear what he says for the next eight weeks he's going to be a little bit on the bearish side be cautious but by the end of the year his price Target still stands pretty high with the Spy he's calling the floor at 530 now I don't know if I think the Spy will reach 530 I think it's quite possible and if it does hit 530 the floor could be a little bit lower however I think 535 to 540 could prove to be the floor but then again with the elections coming up 5:30 is very possible and somewhat likely however we will close the year strong after elections things will get better historically September is really not a good month and this month is the worst September in many many years and not to mention October is not much better either but by the end of the year going through the end of November after elections and into December the market will recover and it will run like it always does in December things are going to get a lot better and we're going to close the year out pretty high I completely agree with Tom I think we're going to be somewhere between 565 and 580 on the Spy going into the New Year's maybe just before or just after does not matter how much money you have and how much knowledge you have in the market which strategies you run if you end up getting into a bad position panicking and get fearful and sell and get greedy and buy too late and start playing off of emotions you will fry a big account pretty quickly it's all about understanding when you see red it's a buying opportunity when people are fearful you be greedy when people are greedy and you see green you you do not second guess yourself and number two the most important thing next to emotions is setting out a set of rules I'm going to get in here sell a covered call here and I'm not going to complain if the stock runs to the moon and I miss the run and I'm assigned to my covered calls this is really what you need to understand it is all a mental game the market was designed completely and utterly designed to take your money and to take advantage of your natural human emotions you see a bunch of green you buy and then it comes down we've all been there soon as I buy it every time I buy a stock no matter how high it's going soon as I buy it it goes down well don't you think there's a reason for that it's because you bought while it's going up and then people start taking profits you see this is a habit that you get into you're in the wrong mindset in the wrong habit when you start seeing lots of grain and there's a big run going on if you missed it stay out you've missed it it's too late when you're seeing that kind of grain if you're already in you sell when you see a lot of selling and the stock is tanking you start timing your entry or enter and start dollar cost averaging there's also so in order to things theory of relativity what goes down must come up and what goes up must come down everything's got a neutral that's what the bowling her band pretty much is but not only that there is an order flow to things in life as well if you had rocks Stones Pebbles and sand and I said fill a 1G glass jar if you trade options with emotions and incorrectly it'd be the equivalent of throwing sand in the jar and then Pebbles you got nice sand in the bottom Pebbles filling it about halfway up then a bunch of stones and there'd be no room for the rock or if you put the rocks in there first there'd be no room for the stones but when you do things in the correct order they work out better you put the big rocks in first to fill the glass jar then you put the stones that fill in all the crevices from the Rocks then you dump in all the Pebbles which fills the remaining spaces then you pour in the sand slowly and let it fill all the cracks you shake it left and right you'll get all the sand in there I guarantee you in that order you will fit more of your rocks Pebbles stones and sand than you would any other order this is the same as the stock market psychology emotions order flow relativity understanding doing things in the right order without emotion with proper thinking proper strategy never second guessing yourself and keeping everything Technical and no emotions and then understanding the right order in which to execute these strategies this is how you become profitable in the market again this is something that I teach this is just scratching the service I just launched another masterclass boot camp very very limited spots I have a full Discord training course and one-on-one coaching I would love to help you guys and show you my secrets on how I went from 25,000 in my account to $2.2 million in 52 years this interests you and you're very serious as it's a serious mentorship you have to be committed limited spots but I would love to have you and teach you how you can grow your portfolio and your financial wealth you can sign up at investor.com right there on the screen where the link is in the information box below but look you know this is how the market is but it's honestly going to do very well by the end of the year don't get psyched out don't let them shake you out of your stocks don't let this happen don't let a shake out happen be strong dollar cost average play the time game play the investing game things will get better in the end of the year maybe sooner but you've got to dollar cost average add to your positions and when it's red look to buy and when it's green look to sell the Market's going to do fine I have a price Target between 565 and 580 by the end of the year everything will be okay don't let them Shake you out of your stocks the market will do just fine by the end of the year this is all just noise like I've said before we'll see you guys on the next upload take care of yourselves
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