저자: DanIves · 외국인
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아마존 실적은 AWS 성장과 광고 호조로 예상을 소폭 상회했으며, 2025년 리테일 모멘텀도 강하다는 주장. 실적 발표 후 하락은 기대치가 과도했기 때문이며, 샌드배깅(낮은 가이던스 후 상회) 관점에서 매수 기회로 제시. AI 설비투자는 2026~2027년까지 확대될 것이고 딥시크는 GPU 지출을 늘려 호재라는 논리. 채널 운영자는 강의 홍보와 함께 아마존·매그니피센트7 매수 기회를 강조하고, 개별 종목 비중은 5% 이내로 분산하라고 조언.
다듬은 글
원문은 영어 자막이므로 영어로 다듬는다.
you never want to miss out on a good opportunity to buy a stock at a lower price when things are going to get a lot better in the future, and that's pretty much what Dan Ives is going to explain in this video that I'm going to share with you on a stock that you need to be adding to your portfolio right now before it's too late. Don't worry about subscribing, liking, looking for the coaching and Discord link—we'll get to all that. Let's listen to what Dan Ives has to say.
You are not concerned with this slightly weaker forecast? I think if you looked up "sandbag special" in the dictionary, you'd see Amazon's ticker, because look, the actual quarter beat on AWS strength, on advertising, and I think on the retail side they have massive momentum into 2025.
I think, look, even take a step back from the Mag 7, these cap backs, and all these numbers—I think you even feel more bullish about the AI revolution when we talk about what's happening in terms of capex. Go back to DeepSeek, even a week and a half ago now. Look at these numbers. They're, you know, up in terms of spending, and I think it continues to really be now the second, third stages of this AI revolution playing out.
If we want to go to AWS for a second, though—if you back out FX, they grew at 19%, that just hit estimates. They missed on revenue on that estimate by a hair. Isn't that the problem, that expectations are so high that if you actually just meet it, it's not good enough? Because Microsoft is growing at what, 30%, when it comes to their cloud business?
Well, I think 24 hours—and this is a stock that's green, I'd be shocked if it's not already. It was down 7%, and now it's off by... but it goes back to these prints: the bears come out of hibernation, try to paint some negative narrative. But the reality is, to your point, AWS—I actually think Jassy and the team are on offense. I think they're actually continuing to gain share. Look, Google clearly had a little softer on the cloud side, Microsoft was more of a capacity issue, but I think what this really shows...
So you heard what Dan Ives had to say about the tech sector, but more specifically about Amazon, and now he's explaining that Amazon was a "sandbag special." If you guys don't know what that is, I'm going to explain it to you before we get into everything Dan Ives said. A sandbag special in stocks refers to a situation where a company intentionally lowers its earnings expectations or forecast to the market, creating a low bar that they can easily surpass when reporting actual results, leading to a positive stock price reaction as investors are pleasantly surprised by the better-than-expected performance. Essentially, it's a strategy of under-promising and over-delivering to manage investor expectations and potentially boost the stock price.
Now, I've said how this is important before in other stocks, and it's likely a lot of the tech sector is experiencing some of this. But I want to go through some of the points that Dan Ives explained. Amazon is a very strong stock, just like the other Magnificent Seven stocks are. But let's talk about the key takeaways from what Dan Ives has said in today's video.
Hardware built the foundation that was needed, and now it's giving up market share to software. The messy AI software is the pallet here. However, Nvidia is the red phone for chips—everybody's going to need to call, and everyone's going to need Nvidia. However, a lot of the issues with the Magnificent 7 and its AI lately is capacity. It's a capacity issue. 2026 through 2027 is where even more spending will likely take place, Dan Ives said.
And don't worry about DeepSeek. DeepSeek is actually a good thing for the market. DeepSeek is bullish for AI and strength due to competition overall, and one very important factor: it's going to increase GPU spending. So it's good for the overall AI revolution, which he said multiple times is the fourth industrial revolution. This is a 4 a.m. party, and now it's 10 p.m. It was previously 9 or 10 p.m., and a lot of these companies know this and they don't want to miss out on the party, so they're having more conviction.
Big Bear AI is just one example of this strong performance. In U.S. advertising, retail momentum is expected to continue into 2025. A lot of strong things for Amazon overall, in the tech sector as well. For Amazon, revenue growth is at a rate of 19% when excluding foreign exchange impacts. High expectations lead to negative market reactions even when targets are met. Amazon is well in comparison with Microsoft's 30% growth in cloud services. Important applications of competitive pressures are on Amazon. Projected capex of 400 to 500 billion in tech over the next few years—this is insane growth. Growth is also anticipated in robotics and autonomous enterprises, with the importance of capex for future growth trajectories.
Discussion on competitive dynamics in the tech sector is also something to talk about. The arms race in AI technology is surging, and Nvidia's strong position is due to demand-supply ratios. Amazon can capitalize on this, and with sandbagging, they're only going to be doing better on future earnings—especially with the fact of under-promising and over-delivering. Overall bullish sentiment on tech continues despite market fluctuations, and there's a strong foundation for growth in the tech sector, especially Amazon's pivotal role in shaping future market trends.
If a lot of this is confusing, I teach this to my students in the Discord all the time: market sentiment psychology, understanding the technicals and the fundamentals, sandbagging, guidance, future guidance, understanding earnings, how to read a balance sheet. All of these things go into trading, and it's not as simple as just buying stocks—buying options, which is not really a good thing anyway. There's a lot that goes into trading: selling covered calls, selling put options. There's a lot. And if you're looking to grow your portfolio, maybe you don't know where to begin, or you're losing money, or you want to retire—you get to see my students' profits on the screens. I would love to help you grow your portfolio the same way my students are right now. If you guys would like to sign up for my Discord training course, full coaching, so you can take your trading to the next level, you can sign up at investwithcorey.com. Links are in the information box below.
But don't take my word for it. Let's take a listen to what my student Shane had to say.
When I first started off with options, I knew nothing at all. Corey's program broke it down into very simple steps. Corey broke them down where it was nice and simple, and I was like, "Oh okay, I totally understand that now."
How much are you up since the start of joining my program?
Oh, you know what, hold on, I'll give you the exact number, let me bring it up. On average, I was making about $2,200 a month day trading. That was average in the very first month. When I started actually selling options, it jumped up to 14K, and right now in December I'm already up 6,400.
You went from day trading to my course, and you were able to go from 2,200 to 14K, correct? And I'm up 65% right now.
If someone was trying to decide between my program or another Discord, what would your direct and short message to them be?
Corey's program will save you time and make you money. That's the bottom line right there.
What would you tell someone who is skeptical about learning from someone online like myself?
I bought into multiple different programs. From my experience, Corey's is the safest, very consistent, and profitable.
How long did it take you to actually make back the cost of joining the Discord?
From the time I started trading, I made my money back in two weeks—10 days if you want to count the actual trading days. Then I just looked at it and I was like, holy cow, I just made $14,000 this month. That's crazy. In just one month it blew away almost my entire year of day trading.
What did you start off with in my program, total capital portfolio, and what are you at now with profits?
I started off with roughly 50,000. I had about 25 already in stocks, and now I'm up to 70 to 75,000.
So you heard my student Shane had to say. All you have to do is head over to investwithcorey.com, click on training, and watch the video there. It will explain all the details you want to know about my coaching, and you'll be able to book a call with my team and me so I can help you grow your portfolio. I look forward to seeing you very soon.
I have a couple of other videos I'm working on, so comment below if you guys want to see them: two stocks that could ultimately make you millions in the next five years, and of course my top five stocks for March. I'm also working on another video—let me know if you want to see it as well. I'm working on the top growth AI stocks to get into now, before it's too late. Look, this is what I teach my students: how to find different stocks in the market. Amazon is another good one, Walmart as well. You want to make sure to diversify your portfolio, this way you're not all in one sector, or one stock, or even one strategy. And you don't want to go all in with more than 5% in any position, unless the stock is strong and you have a big enough portfolio to support that.
This is ultimately a buying opportunity for Amazon, as well as the other Magnificent 7. Microsoft is a very strong stock, so is Meta. Apple is also great. Tesla is coming down, but it's becoming a buying opportunity—we just have to wait for that sentiment, which is kind of negative right now, to cool off a little bit. But remember, we have year-over-year and month-over-month inflation and core inflation data coming up this week, and a Fed governor is also speaking. As long as this data on Tuesday and Wednesday is good, it's a buying opportunity for later in the week, and things will likely get better. The stock market has lots of opportunity; you just have to know where to look and what to look for, and that's what I teach my students and what I'm here to help you understand.
Ultimately, like I've said before, sandbagging is just one of the manipulation tactics that hedge funds, companies, and other institutions implement in order to shake you out of your stocks, shake you out of positions, or cause you to lose money when you should be making money. It's a psychological game. You get shaken out, the stock drops, and then it goes back up—when if you'd stayed in, you'd be at break-even or in profit and continue to hold long term. However, this is not the case, and a lot of people lose money. That's a big thing I teach and explain in my YouTube videos as well, and that's what's going on right now. A lot of these earnings are basically sandbagged, or they're having very small issues, but our expectations are too great, and that leads to a sell-off and lower prices, causing you to sell your stock at a loss instead of holding and having gains along the way. This is the way the market is, ultimately.
But right now I'm trying to show you not to fear, not to be greedy, not to get emotional, and to think rationally and understand what's going on. That's where I'd like to help you and all my students. I'm hoping you guys understand these very important factors in the market. Amazon is a very strong company, as are the other Magnificent 7 and many of the different stocks I talk about on this channel. Just because a stock drops on earnings doesn't mean it's not a buying opportunity, as there is a lot of manipulation in the market. So you have to do your due diligence and research to understand exactly what's going on. If you're having trouble, that's where I come in to help you guys.
So I really hope you'll be able to take advantage of the buying opportunities coming up this week in the market. It's really going to be dependent on the news from the Fed as well as the inflation data that comes out. I'll have more updates for you as we go on later this week. I look forward to seeing you guys in the next video. Take care of yourselves, and have a great day.
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