저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 S&P500이 올해 강세이며 3.5% 기준금리 인하 등 펀더멘털이 우호적이어서 선거 전 조정 시 매수 기회로 본다고 주장. 선거 전 변동성은 있으나 약세장은 아니며, 주택건설주는 10월 20일~4월 29일 계절적 강세 구간에서 S&P 대비 초과수익을 보인다고 언급. 영상 진행자 Corey는 선거 결과 편향이 뚜렷해질수록 증시에 유리하다고 보고, 연준 금리인하(연내 25~50bp 추가 인하)로 2025년 경기·실적·PE에 긍정적이라 주장. SPY 590~600 가능성 언급, 현금 비중 확보 후 조정 시 분할매수 권고.
다듬은 글
well things are getting pretty tricky during the election this is a time where there's a lot of uncertainty in the market and this is a time that you have to take caution in your portfolio and pick your entries into stocks and buy the dip Tom Lee just dropped some pretty big information on the current landscape of the Tailwinds that we have in the stock market right now but also the headwinds that we Face going into the election time as well as the volatility due to the unknown let's take a listen to what Tomley had to say let's not worry about smashing the like button subscribing or looking for the Discord link just yet let's hear what Tomley has to say about the market and its current head wins speaking of equities I'm going to do something rare mostly because it's funny and give you a hard time for not being bullish enough 6 weeks ago you warned about a potential 10% pullback in the S&P in the next 8 weeks we're up 6 and a half% I think since then now you did say to buy any dips if that were to happen but do you see any more potential I BS what do you think got us this far well John um the stock market in the last six weeks has proven its character which it's had all year the S&P is incredibly strong this year it's been up now nine of 10 months and you're right we got fooled by seasonality because I figured well between now and election day there's a a heightened possibility of some type of Correction uh we weren't saying you want to sell stocks I I think it's always a mistake when people panic sell because we in the same literally in the same paragraph said but if it does pull back you want to buy that tip and I I think we're still in that tricky period until after election date but that doesn't mean I think investors should be bearish right now I I think we have a really good fundamental backdrop I mean look if David's view is correct three and a half% tene sorry three and half% fed funds rate is very supportive of of the economy it's going to really take housing and autos and durables out of a recession and that should be good for not only earnings growth but but for PE multiples so to me all of this I think is a is a pretty good backdrop that doesn't mean turbulence couldn't happen so J I guess you know I think people kind of view the idea that there could be caution as like a dirty word it shouldn't be I mean this is a stock market and people should be prepared to buy dips if there are yeah we we're coming into the two weeks Peak earning season Tom to your point plus right behind that we do have this election so the next couple of weeks will be will be ones to watch here for investors um you just mentioned housing though Tom and I do want to get your call on that because you're bullish on the home builders and you say there's historical precedent for this yes uh you know what we the reason we highlighted the trade today is that since 1999 believe it or not there's a there's a six-month window when home builders enter a golden six-month period it's something we've been writing about at fund strap for for better part of a decade and the trades worked 12 of the last 15 years but from October 20th to April 29th home builders have outperformed the S&P by an average of almost 1,00 basis points so all of the gains home builders make typic typically c those six months I can't explain the seasonality but the backdrop is better today because the FED is cutting at a time when there's pent up demand and the home builders have actually done a very good job of Capital Management so it to us it looks like a trade that should work this year so want to break down everything Tom Lee said explain to you guys what I think is likely to happen as well and how I'm attacking these headwinds going into the election to try to figure out how to stance myself on my portfolio and what you guys should be looking to do as well however first before we do that if you guys are looking to retire early or just grow your portfolio and have Financial Freedom maybe you're having difficulty in the market maybe you're just having a rough time and you want to learn quicker and more efficiently I'd love to help you guys out we have very limited spots in the Discord right now I had to take a week off without being able to bring anyone in we had to close registrations but now they're open again so if you guys would like to join in and take part in my one-on-one coaching Discord and full training course so you can take care of your Financial Freedom I would love to help you guys out as long as you guys show up dedicated and eager to learn I will show up dedicated to teach you how to grow your portfolio so you can go to invest withc cory.com the Link's in the information box below you guys can go to the testimonials to see what my current students are saying Sherry took her $8,000 portfolio now it's at $222,000 in just three and a half months Josh is up $90,000 in just over 3 months you guys can then click on training and any questions you may have will be answered right here in this video as I don't have time to answer them right now but if you click this video then you'll be able to book a call with my team and I this way we can build a system that works just for you I look forward to seeing you very soon when you're ready to join and take control of your Financial Freedom so Tom Lee said that the SNP is very strong which it is it's up nine out of the last 10 months August being a really rough month and we had some rough patches in September as well but overall very strong we also have some headwinds which is really the unknown the elections and really we shouldn't be Panic selling but definitely buying the dip which is why I have a cash position in my account a pretty big siiz cash position and I sold off of stocks at Peaks took profits on stocks that were unlikely to move much at least until after elections this way I had more Capital to invest in stocks and buying dips there is a lot of this going to be happening in the next two to three weeks it's a pretty volatile Market I'm not bearish on the market just like Tom Lee said I'm actually a little bit more bullish than most but there are going to be some dips and there's a lot of unknowns and the closer we get to elections it would actually be better if a candidate was a little bit more likely to win if a lot of news agencies start reporting one candidate it is more likely to win and it's more not concrete but more I guess you could say conclusive or more highly uh probable the more we go into that direction that's better for the market because the market will start pricing that in the issue is if the news agency starts saying it's 50/50 no one knows who's going to win anything of unknown being unsure or 50/50 or a tie or it's going to be a very close race that's going to create volatility in the market so you want to watch out on the news for hearing things things like Tai or deadlock or even or things like unsure who the candidate's going to be to close to call any statements like this over and over again in the news is going to incite uncertainty in the market it's not good what we should be hearing if we want good results in the stock market is there's a clear lead a clear winner or likely to win or this candidate is more likely to win or it's looking like this candidate is more and more likely to win as time goes on and we get closer to C more of a bias if we're hearing a bias of who's likely to win the stronger that bias the better it will be for the stock market the more of a deadlock or a tie or uncertainty of who's going to win the election the more volatility the market will have leading up to elections the feds are also looking to cut rates at either 25 or 50 more basis points potentially by January if that happens it'll bring us down to the 4% Fed rate and Tom Lee talked about a 3.5% Fed rate which is likely to happen by near the end of 2025 we're supposed to get 25 to 50 basis points by January and we're supposed to get another 50 basis points in 2025 so if we get 50 basis points between now and January somewhere then that means that as we go through 2025 we will get closer to that 3.5% this is really good for auto housing and durables and will pull them out of a recession like Tom Lee said but it's also going to help earnings across the board because companies are going to be able to make more money if money is cheaper to borrow or cheaper to acquire with a lower interest rate this in turn will also help the PE ratio on these companies and their stocks which means companies will have stocks that are worth more money more valuable which means people are going to buy them more there's going to be more value in them which means more Investments more growth it's a residual Circle that's going to continue and evolve full circle this is what happens in the stock market as you cut rates money gets cheaper borrowing gets easier profits get easier PE ratios start to go down which is good for the stock market and not only that it pulls certain aspects of the economy out of a recession that's still somewhat in recession Auto due to Insurance homeowners insurance the housing market in general and durables are kind of not doing as well as Services services are doing great in PMI manufacturing is slightly contracted and kind of stalemated in one spot it's kind of consolidating however Services is expanding which is good I guess you could say a different Market than it was pre-co this is completely different so with all of that being said and the issue of the elections there's volatility once the elections are over and we see what the PMI data is for the first week of November which is right before the elections we're going to have that then the elections if all is good payroll is good then we're going to be good after the elections everything should be solid it'll stabilize as we go through November things will get better in the stock market it'll get really bullish in December like it usually does just based off of History that's what usually happens and with the election out of the way and with good PMI data we have good chances for better earnings interest rate Cuts will only help this and then we have more PMI data coming out again the first week of December so if we have November and December good PMI data once the elections are over we have a good shot especially with another 50 basis points cut in order to make the economy really strong going into January there is that potential and the market could run pretty strong and in my opinion right now that's the likelihood I mean I've really been on the $580 train for spy since back in January or Fe February and even higher I actually was thinking more like 590 to 600 looks like that's going to be a possibility but you have to really watch what you're doing between now and the elections I highly suggest and I really do I care about you guys I don't want you to lose any money I highly suggest being careful with stocks that you're up right now and you're in a profit if you're running the wheel strategy on these stocks or you're just holding shares or profits if you're in a profit position right now and it looks like you could get out or there's a ceiling maybe sell some shares sell some percentages keep a cash position because when the stock market does have some form of pullback somewhere you'll be able to buy some dips add to your position other stocks that are more likely to grow you really have to look through and make sure you've got really good positions and trim them up and have some form of a cash position right now just in case there is some dips happening as I said in my previous video hedge funds and institutions were underinvested which means they're now consistently investing daily and weekly over time which is keeping the market going up so there is also the chance that the market pullback may not happen or it may happen very softly and it may be somewhat unnoticeable depending on the stock it's very very difficult time in the market do your diligence and pay attention and have some form of cash position but ultimately my recommendations right now between now and the elections is to buy the dip dollar cost average as things pull back if they don't pull back going into elections you can slowly add and if things look like they're moving up leading into the election you can start adding back into your positions but you have to play it safe Tomley basically said the same thing and I do agree with most of what he says not everything but most of the things that he says and right now we're in a pretty decent spot even with the headwinds of the election so ultimately you just have to take care of your portfolio protect it have some form of cash position this way you'll be able to buy the dip add to your portfolio and I think going into the end of the year all of us are really going to be in a good position as I think we're all in store for a pretty surprisingly strong bullish run after the election don't forget if you want to take control of your Financial Freedom I would love to help you guys it's what drives me every single day you can see the profits my students are making on the screen right now I offer full Discord training course one-on-one coaching the link is in the information box below invest withc cory.com I would love to help you fam whenever you're ready book a call with us I look forward to seeing and helping you grow your portfolio thanks so much guys for being here I really appreciate it I'll catch on the next one
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