저자: TwoStupidGuysTradeStocks진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 배리 트윗 차트를 근거로 한 은행 위기 분석 영상. 결론: 지역은행 중 PACW(퍼시픽 웨스트)가 과매도 상태로 보여 3월 21~22일 FOMC 이후 진입을 고려하지만, 확정 추천은 아님. 차트 분석: 미실현 손실 비율(x축)과 FDIC 보호 한도(25만달러) 초과 예금 비율(y축)을 기준으로 리스크를 평가. SIVB가 최고 위험, FRC·WAL 등은 제외 대상. 3/8~3/17 낙폭은 FRC 약 -80%, PACW 약 -65%, WAL 약 -56%. PACW 근거: 현금 약 108억 달러 보유, 3/16 기준 보험 예금 비중 62% 이상, 벤처 예금 중 77% 이상 보험 대상. 다만 동종 지역은행 대비 과도하게 빠진 점은 설명되지 않는다고 진행자가 인정. 대형은행: 뱅크오브아메리카는 미실현 손실 비중이 커서 매수 비추천. JPM은 상대적으로 안전하나 대형 은행 중 보유 지역 익스포저 우려 언급. 증권사: 골드만·모건스탠리·IBKR 등은 직접 위험이 아닌 별개 상황으로 평가. 찰스 슈왑은 미실현 손실 비중이 커서 낙폭이 컸으며, 슈왑 CEO 인터뷰(고객 순유입, 은행 예금 대부분 보험, 유동성 충분)를 인용하며 장기 보유 후보로 언급. 진행자는 주당 40달러대 하락 시 추가 매수 희망, 55달러 행사가 콜옵션 매도 보유 중. 시장 심리: 은행 위기 시 동종 섹터 전체가 과도하게 매도되는 공포 심리를 지적. 리스크는 여전히 존재하며 무분별한 매수는 지양해야 한다고 강조.
다듬은 글
Berry put out a tweet that is amazing a lot of information and we're gonna look at one stock that he kind of ominously is pointing to and another stock that I have already bought um we're trying to take advantage of this Bank crisis so anything we can do to get better deals right let's look into it three stocks yeah so it looks like he's trying to show the intersection of like kind of risk here if you will a little bit Yeah across the x-axis you hear you have percent of unrealized uh losses as far as their uh Capital uh trance one um and then on the y-axis here you have percent of deposits that are not FDIC back at the 250 000 limit which the Federal Reserve is basically overroded at this point in time and said it's null but like which institutions were at highest risk I guess you would say overall obviously sivb is way out there in the freaking Corner way out in the moon the worst of Both Worlds um you know you could say the y-axis the the risk is a lot less now because they've already come out and said like Hey we're gonna back everything however they're still at a risk for Bank runs okay um what is it what is it bank one one run um it's liquidity crisis right like they don't have enough cash per se on hand to meet the demand of withdrawals right at 42 billion in one day exactly right right right so bankron occurs large group of deposits withdraw their money everyone gets scared they all just take all their money um out which led to you know the 2008 financial crisis it's important to note that this theoretically could happen to anyone let's take like like JP Morgan okay they're like probably the safest one right now if every single person took every dollar out of JP Morgan at once they would be dead right that's not gonna happen I don't know how people would coordinate that it wouldn't be very nice but theoretically every bank is at risk but the more risk inherited that those Banks took you have a higher chance so this is a busy slide I understand and but we're going to take a look at this I like the two that are labeled dead yeah dead so what is this I I understand this is insane now when this crisis started what I did was Michael burry put out this tweet and he etched in this little p-a-c-w right right this was not a part of the original chart so what I did was I looked at March 8th the closing date to now uh the closing date of March 18th or March 17th close and looked at the drop in each stock now these outside of the purple are Regional Banks okay um now obviously sbny they're not really dead it's a different situation but you can't invest sav-b dead um uh FRC up here negative 80 percent if you look kind of the top going under s b and Y the higher the risk of the worse they are doing okay so what everyone wants to know is how do you take advantage of this why don't I invest in in FRC right now it's down 80 percent yeah so when I asked that in one of our last videos because I'm definitely considering it but why not right dimple trigger right and and I have not either yet I have invested in my other one that I'm going to talk about um but let me move my face here there's there's one more uh stock hban uh 28.4 so pacw is also down 65 that's why it's in red wal down 56 but if you look in the risk categories if I wanted to invest in one of these Banks just for a long-term hold which one it is risky like we said any bank can have a run on it okay yes I want to look at the biggest drop so I'm getting the best deal for my money which also has the least amount of relative risk okay so by doing that all of those are eliminated these are dead right yeah because they're they have more than the the median of unrealized losses hence more risk they also have higher deposits even though that isn't as risky now theoretically if people go to withdraw their entire account it's a large larger sum of money right yeah that's why FRC and wal are down 60 and 80 percent yeah right so your safest little cluster here is going to be CFG NYCB MTB PNC RF and pacw hee now what's weird is how much they're down why is pacw down 65 percent yeah interesting that's pack Quest I sound like that bank I believe yeah pack West so the first thing I was like all right wait do you have anything to do with crypto like because I don't want to touch this but I I couldn't find anything unreasonable like with crypto like Signature Bank for instance Signature Bank was shut down and it was just you know whatever um I I don't understand why this Bank in particular is getting hit so hard so at first glance I was like I don't want to touch this but as I'm going to show you with this other stock there's a whole nother sector that's getting hit unrealistically hard and there's kind of a fear psychological Factor at play all right I like it during these times of of banks crashing or really any sector take chips it doesn't matter let's say AMD Nvidia they could have the equivalent business which they don't they could have the equivalent business if one starts dropping 10 percent people just start selling they just get scared right so theoretically you're going to have one outlier um here is pcab they let me move your face okay they essentially um they came out the they they had a letter before the saying like hey guys we're fine I don't know why we're losing so much money um they have 10.8 billion as of Friday uh just in solid available cash which a Regional Bank is a lot smaller than Bank of America Wells Fargo which by the way did you see how far Bank of America is on this chart yeah I was kind of surprised for the large Banks they're uh they're a little over there as far as like the actual percent of unrealized losses that they they're holding on their balance sheet right now that's kind of uh I'm gonna get into that too I'm gonna go to that too because I was looking at should I buy Bank of America the answer was no full disclosure but um so they have a bunch of cash right they then came out let me move your face again so since Monday March 13th then Apple's have fallen sharply with the positive balance fluctuations substantially stabilizing so they're getting into a little bit of a healthier Place Pacific West Bank said as of March 16th so Thursday insured deposits accounted for over 62 percent of total deposits which is why they were on that lower access and while insured venture-specific deposits made up more than 77 percent of total Venture deposits so they're not taking the same risk they're really not okay now I don't want to recommend I'm not Jim Cramer right I'm not going to throw out uh Hey buy sivb or anything like that but I'm gonna be honest um I am waiting for the rates are March 21st and 22nd to possibly pull a position in in pacw it has fallen significantly more than its peers and it doesn't really make a lot of sense now there are always other factors you should never just look at well this one's down the most let's go for this one um in this specific Bank Run risk having a smaller amount of unrealized losses with a smaller amount of large depositors is a is a good thing so yeah that makes sense you're looking at performance relative to peers which is I guess comparison that's also why they come down right because when their peers are having a bad day you know it's kind of assumed that they're experiencing similar issues that I I get the logic behind it right insert Schwab okay let's look at these ETFs so the XLF that's just a financial ETF kre is regional Regional only okay so your big Banks as you remember on that chart BAC is farthest to the right with the most unrealized losses JPM was relatively safe the city was actually slightly safer but they had higher yeah I know I hate that stuff yeah it's city is like Kryptonite to me I don't touch it anymore right um when you look at Regional Banks you have these you know these massive down ones these all had pretty high Holdings in kre I'm gonna go back one second so FRC there we go so your CMA is here your FRC is here your ewbc is here in your wal so those are all in there and then you look at Pac and it's way down here it's not really in the same risk category get the logic yeah all right now then I was looking well why are other financial institutions going down like brokerages for instance they're not it's not really a direct risk it's it's a different situation right it's like uh you know when you like natural path birth is orthopedic surgeon like if there's the same field but not really right yeah um so you have your Banks brokerages and then combos so Goldman Sachs down 13 Morgan Stanley's 12 fidelities 13 interactive brokers 15 and Schwab is 26.
I believe Schwabs had the largest portion of unrealized losses in their balance sheet though that was why they were getting hit so severely a little bit and here is something that I would like to show this is the CEO first and foremost it's not necessarily the first place you think about for contagion after a collapse of a bank in Silicon Valley that did a lot of lending to venture capital firms but that's what's happened your stock is down almost 30 percent over the past week including today's bounce why Y and D well I think there's been a degree of confusion on two sides of our firm the the first one is the difference between a brokerage operation and a banking operation I see people speaking about FDIC and they have a fairly good understanding of that that when you deposit at a bank the bank takes those deposits and invests them they are part of the bank balance sheet and then the FDIC provides Insurance up to 250 000 at least that's the way it's been since I believe 2008 two more minutes so we have about 7.4 trillion dollars that clients have entrusted us with at Schwab and and over 7 trillion of that since on The Brokerage side brokerage assets are held separate they are segregated from so 7.4 trillion seven trillion Brokers what's called the SEC in consumer protection rule I even have heard some pundits talk about Civic and tried to compare it relative to FDIC and of course there's no comparison these are segregated assets and sipic kicks in largely only in a situation of fraud of course the SEC requires us to report on the segregation and we do so regularly and they audit it so I think that's the first bit of confusion that went on people began to complete Civic and FDIC and didn't didn't really understand the segregation of of client Securities from the restaurants right I mean you do you you do have a pretty robust Bank business inside of the company we do and that I think is where the concerns are we do and that's the second one that I want to I want to try to address our bank is very conservatively managed if you look at the Holdings of the bank we have about 10 percent of client deposits outstanding in loans that are over collateralized almost exclusively to our clients very very low risk and then we have about 80 percent in U.S government backed paper uh within that to effectively you're operating with with virtually no virtually no credit risk from a liquidity standpoint we have access to very substantial liquidity arguably we have a level of liquidity over a 12-month period equal to our entire Bank sweep deposits around 280 billion dollars so I understand that that there were banks that got into trouble uh we have a reasonable understanding as to how they did so but those applications we don't believe apply at Schwab at all we do understand though that when our stock price went down at a rate that was in some manners consistent with some of the Regionals that people easily put us up on slides and and talked about us in a manner and I mentioned or you mentioned earlier the 80 plus of our deposits in FDIC inter balances insured banks that have run into trouble are at fractions of that number but but as you say you've been swept in have you seen any deposit outflows what are you seeing from customers now actually what we're seeing is is asset inflows to the firm in significant numbers so in February our clients brought in almost 42 billion dollars in net new assets to us march to date they've averaged about two billion dollars a day interestingly enough last Friday when we were maybe at the heart of uh the the peak maybe of some of these challenges before the actions taken by the Federal Reserve around liquidity our clients actually brought about four billion dollars into the firm that day alone another interesting factoid the number one stock that our clients bought in Feb in in Friday on Friday with Schwab stock I love it I mean I mean granted he's the CEO right so he's going to give you a very grain of salt grain of salt right you can you know salesmen you can never trust be like oh this is the best used car possible Right but all that stuff can be fact checked and and that's where that gets really really interesting um I I've been trying to add uh Schwab as a position I'm currently at 60 shares average price I think 58 um I'm not going to buy any more unless it drops down to the 40s which I'm really hoping it does uh because I would like to have 100 shares but I to me pacw which I don't own yet I'm waiting and Schwab stand out as as possible opportunities for long-term holds there's volatility here you got to be safe don't just blindly buy this but in my opinion that's what I'm doing yeah yeah interesting so I I sold a Caster card put uh for 100 shares of Charles Schwab at 55 strike expiring April 17th I think it is I got like uh 420 in premium for selling that that option so my my cost basis on it if that gets exercise would be like you know 40 80 years I mean I'm sorry 50 80 or something like that a share um so I'd be looking at buy Schwab at any any point around that price because it was my thought I mean this is not like very deep deep dive a value of Banks and financial institutions is very very hard uh this was just like yeah you know this seems like a really strong resistance kind of level that's kind of what I thought yeah and then on top of that when you have Regional banks that are getting rough people usually move to a safer option you know that's what JPM is like having a semi bad week it's not even like here's like down eight percent but um those are those are the two I'm looking at guys um let me know what you guys think give us like like And subscribe if you don't mind there's a little graphic fancy catch you guys the next one
Comments 0