저자: Dylan · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리 발언을 인용하며 은행 위기가 1907년 공황처럼 빠르게 바닥을 칠 수 있는지 논하지만, 진행자들은 확신 없이 시장 바닥 여부를 열어둔 채 방향성 예측은 뚜렷하지 않음. 은행 위기 비교: 1907년 Knickerbocker 신탁 사태와 현재 지역은행 문제(SVB, Signature)를 비교. 당시 10월 16일 시작, 11월 6일 종료, JP모건 등 민간이 자금 지원 후 약 3주 만에 바닥이라는 버리 주장을 소개. 금리·예금보험: FDIC 특별분담금으로 손실 보전 가능성 언급, 결국 은행과 납세자 부담이 될 수 있다는 논의. 미결 손실: 은행들이 과거 저금리 시기 매입한 장기 국채에 평가손실을 안고 있어 연준의 액면가 대출 프로그램이 유동성 압박을 줄인다는 설명. CPI·PPI: 3월 CPI 전월比 0.4%(연율 6%대), 근원 CPI 완화 추세 언급. PPI는 전월比 -0.1%로 하락했으나 근원 PPI는 연 4.6%. 시장은 다음 회의에서 25~50bp 인상을 반영하는 분위기. 주식 시장: S&P500은 9일 EMA 아래, 200일선 아래로 하락 추세. 기술주(애플·구글·메타) 상승 언급, 기술주 하락 가능성은 낮다고 봄, 다른 섹터는 하락 우려. 진행자는 방향에 대해 'heads or tails'라며 확신 없음. 리스크: 은행 시스템 위기 확산 여부, 금리 인상 지속, 변동성 확대. 출연자 전망: 두 진행자 모두 시장 방향을 단정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to Tuesday socks I am Dylan and um today we're talking about gabari making a time-based prediction around a similar event of bank failures and how long a turn took to reach a market bottom we're also talking about CPI and PPI numbers that came out in the last couple days really move the market a lot okay stops so let's spurned this exact video here is this tweet from Michael burry you're basically talking about the Panic of 1907 for those of you who are not familiar with it the Knickerbocker trust have you ever heard that name before in your life so back at the this kind of time period Banks and Trust were separate under different Capital requirements the banks have had like 25 reserves as trust only had that five percent five percent and the trusts were allowed to loan for overnight stock purchases they're basically doing the immediate cash unsecured loan and then uh getting it backed up by like a bank at uh you know kind of after 24 hours so you end up having this like run on trust yeah but as it makes sense yeah yeah not surprising all right pretty sure they gotta all be dead that's a horrible rule well it's kind of eerie how similar it is because right where did the issues start this time it started with regional Banks which are not held to the same Capital requirements as the big National Banks hello history repeating itself right but the interesting thing here is in this time period this is pre-federal reserve days all right so there was a private kind of conglomeration that stepped in to back up the banks you got JP Morgan and John Rockefeller and other like you know very wealthy individuals literally taking their own cash and putting it in into these institutions to prop them up wild huh I'm sure they got something in return there oh yeah yeah right um but you know he talks about how like it was JP Morgan made a stand and then three weeks later the stock market bottomed right and the stand was made this past weekend meaning that we're within that time period this night when you go back to 1907 was October 16th is when the stuff that really kicks off and by November 6th it's over with okay that's fast pretty fast I I mean there's definitely a lot more variables this time with interest rates that's going to be kind of ignorable yeah exactly and then you know the market was already in a pretty kind of Hefty down Trend already at that point you know you're talking about this this last little portion here that was really caused by this not terribly dissimilar we've already been in the down hunt for a little while in the current market so maybe we do find like a new bottom we've come up off of it a little bit finally had today flashing to the negative for the year actually I think the first time although it was closed back in the positive though so he had a couple other kind of tweets here that were interesting and talking about like the hubris and green of bankers and how like you know the money printer gets turned on and bails them out ever you ever heard this saying where it goes if you owe a hundred thousand dollars you have a problem if you owe 100 million dollars your bank has a problem if you're a bank and you owe a hundred billion dollars the taxpayer has a problem right yeah except apparently the taxpayer is not not footing the bill on this one it's a question of semantics all right not the taxpayer but you you know how they would ultimately close any gaps here in this have you heard anything about this um yeah it's all good the FDIC can Levy a special fee upon its insured members to recoup any losses oh right okay banks in the country that are fdisc and sure would have to Pony up this money and where do the banks get their money from yeah hello sister taxpayer and big customer there was a good just in terms of of what he just said about people taking risks I'm gonna butcher this but there's a saying in um in the stock market and especially day trading is that success and stability go hand in hand but stability will breed higher risk so what will happen is you you'll be doing well you're doing great and everything's going well for you it's like it'll take a little bit more right I've definitely done that a hundred times and then it works then it works until it doesn't and you're yeah it's all good um one last tweet that I thought was kind of interesting here and this is not something I kind of dove into deeply but it was it I thought kind of wild talking about the overconcentration of this ESG investing that was heavily kind of invested in SVP bank because of their exposure to Green energy so it's kind of ironic that you know your exposure to trying to save the world means that you lost money on this deal yeah and I bet Dupont is doing very well so yeah yeah yeah yeah Philip Morris probably fine okay great all right so CPI numbers came out uh yesterday basically and it was up 0.4 for the month six percent annual rate you know definitely coming back down but still you know kind of higher than the two percent Target goal yes the Federal Reserve is having their effect yes they probably have to stick with it for a little while longer the market is still pressing in a 25 basis point hike for the next meeting um but like you know overall this is reasonable this is kind of in line with where it makes sense that it's going right yeah I I thought on um larger time frames like not the month but the six month a year it's still been increasing and hasn't dipped right I can't remember it's been really stubborn if you're looking at core CPI on like that 369 uh yeah 12 month lagging you're still talking about five percent which we're getting very close to in terms of a Fed funds rate because conventional wisdom used to be that you have to take the FED funds rate up above the actual inflation rate in order to be able to break inflation and we're pretty close we're like almost at that level at this point so yeah yeah it's okay but this this right here's if you're looking back over the last year you know we did put on our Peak quite a while ago definitely still a downward Trend you know positive direction you see this Gap is coming on a lot narrower here between the actual core CPI and the uh the overall headline CPI number which is kind of interesting um just from a standpoint of you know gas and uh kind of food and gas were are part of the excluding it from the core and in the beginning they were starting to give us like a little bit of a uh kind of Headway here because they were coming down significantly and now they've actually started to trim back up a little bit the the kind of core CPI yeah for month basis I there was a time where I thought gas was going to be like 160 for a while or oil not a gas yeah now uh oil was down seven percent today actually it was yeah like the worst days for oil in history actually yeah yeah so this is what moved basically the whole Market Today Was PPI numbers came out uh so PPI one step up that kind of Supply ladder you look at that producer price index came down uh 0.1 percent over month so like this is actually a contraction uh yeah yeah I'm positive you know going the right way the the big things you saw here is that 0.1 percent um you know when you exclude food and energy this still went up a little bit you know like they did have a little bit of a Tailwind there because of that kind of price and food and energy there um still 4.6 annually so that's like still a you know decent size number we're now moving it uh fed funds rate that's going to be even higher than that so on this kind of we've surpassed that level if you will could be moving the FED funds at 475 so 500 probably after the next meeting yeah and so that's that's kind of interesting right because I think before the banks took a you know nosedive they were pricing in a decent chance of a of a 0.5 height correct so now it becomes an interesting situation right do you do what's best for the economy because you can really argue that this is not a bank systemic risk this is okay really svb over lending to a bunch of tech companies not having a backup it's more nuanced than that I understand and then signature but they also have a whole crypto hold where Banks were going to them for crypto it's not all banks it's very specific situations it's not like in the news where all banks are dying JP Morgan shop they're all fine well the big question there is they all have a lot of kind of unrealized losses on their balance sheet right because Banks bought a lot of Treasury bonds some of them very long-term treasury bonds when interest rates are really low and we've talked about the inverse relationship between uh kind of prices for bonds and like the yield so they're now underwater on all the bonds they were buying two years ago because of the FED funds rate being so much higher right on interest rates in general being so much higher so they're carrying a lot of paper losses so they really have to be able to carry these these bonds to maturity in order to you know kind of fully realize the value that they have and when you have a short-term kind of liquidity issue like SUV experience you can't really do that so what the FED is doing now with this um kind of par value borrowing facility is they're allowing all these Banks to borrow at the face value of the the bond basically right so they don't have to take that discount anymore they can get the full amount of cash and they're not like in a panic trying to sell off bonds like massively because if you've seen bonds of getting hit really really oh yeah over the last week but I guess why couldn't you do that and do a 0.5 hike I mean they could they definitely could yeah I feel like I would yeah oh interesting I mean it's uh it's a question of prudence I guess you know how aggressive do you want to be yeah it's one stupid guy's opinion just to be clear I don't know I know right if you want to pick up the chart from today it's pretty wild oh you got it up slight delay oh my goodness there we go no radio silence all right so uh here's the Spy let me move my face um I'm gonna be honest with you guys technical analysis is kind of useless when you have this much volume and uh this many fundamental things happening so yeah really all you can get from this is that the Spy is still extended from the 9 EMA is still under the 200 which is this line here it looks like it's still in a downtrend they gapped down they did get a little bit of ground back but you know it's there's just not a lot to look at when you have this much volume the cues look pretty strong yeah so cues threw up some pretty mad volume you know went up gap down went up higher um I I don't see Tech falling a lot I do see other things falling um it's really heads or tails on where we go from here it's kind of I'm not gonna lie to you guys it's like technical analysis is useless when there's stuff like this happening so yeah of my accounts usually they're kind of opposite each other but like my main account was up because you know Apple had a good day Google had a good day meta had a good day and then my my kind of more embarrassed position on on Tesla actually that that spread actually was positive today so it's like I don't really know it's uh it's we're in a weird market right now if you're watching an intraday at all it's been like swinging wild things it's insane yeah I actually I closed my Carnival puts I re-entered so I got a bunch of profit I got 20 um nice but I mean it could fall a lot more I just I have no idea so complete guess all right guys well let us know what sort of moves you're making out there love to kind of hear your thoughts yeah give us a like And subscribe we've got some good videos coming this weekend thanks guys
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