DID THE FED GO TOO FAR? Cathie Wood makes the argument the FED rate hikes caused bank collapses.

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캐시 우드는 최근 은행 파산(실버게이트, SVB)이 연준이 금리를 지나치게 올린 결과라고 주장하며, 이를 1994년 오렌지카운티 파산 후의 상황에 비유한다. 은행 위기의 원인: 암호화폐·벤처 관련 고객 집중이 있었지만, 위기를 촉발한 것은 위험회피와 예금 수익 부족으로 인한 예금 이탈이다. 자금이 MMF로 이동하면서 대형 은행보다 중소형 은행에 문제를 일으키고 있다. 인플레이션 전망: 선행지표는 인플레이션이 디플레이션 쪽으로 하락하고 있음을 가리킨다. 필립스 곡선식 사고(고용 증가=인플레 상승)는 지난 40년 역사상 맞지 않았고, 1980년대 초부터 2020년까지 강한 성장·고용 시기에도 인플레는 하락했다. 생산성 향상이 임금 인상과 마진 확보를 가능하게 한다. 소비 동향: 프록터앤드갬블(PG) 4분기 물량이 6% 감소하는 등 필수소비재에서도 이례적인 수요 둔화가 나타난다. 기업들이 가격 인상으로 마진을 유지하고 있으나 소비자가 반발하고 있어, 물량 타격이 마진 타격으로 이어질 것이며 통화정책 서사도 바뀌어야 한다고 본다. 연준 평가: 파월 의장이 의회에서 매파적으로 발언했지만, 실업수당 청구 감소 등 고용지표 강세를 근거로 한 것이다. 우드는 현 상황이 2008년 리먼 사태 같은 시스템 위기가 아니라 1994년과 유사하다고 베팅한다. 1993~94년은 원자재 가격 상승과 금리 인상으로 성장주가 부진했던 해였고, 2022년이 그와 비슷했다고 평가한다. 다만 오렌지카운티 파산은 연준이 너무 멀리 갔다는 신호였다. 결론: 연준의 과도한 긴축이 은행 위기를 낳았고, 인플레는 하락 추세이며 소비 둔화가 진행 중이라는 진단.

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01. recently in her monthly in the no report CEO and CIO of Arc invest Kathy Wood shared her thoughts on the current economy the growth of M2 crypto and most notably the recent bank failures Kathy compared it to the crisis that occurred in 1994 when Orange County went broke she believes that the failure of silvergate Bank in Silicon Valley Bank is a sign that the FED has gone too far she acknowledges that these Banks had a concentration of crypto and venture-related customers but argues that the crisis was triggered by deposit outflows which were caused by risk aversion and the lack of Returns on deposits money is fleeing to money market funds which is not necessarily presenting major problems for the Big Money Center Banks but it is definitely causing issues for smaller Banks let's listen to Kathy the leading indicators of inflation are pointing down to deflation actually and this idea that we should be using employment I understand it's in its mandate is to encourage full employment uh and we think low inflation is consistent with full employment but we don't like this idea that because employment's going up that's a bad thing it's inflationary that's the Phillips curve view of the world which I've discussed on this webinar a few times in the past but basically it says if employment and output are moving up then the riska is that inflation will move up as well the history of the last 40 years on balance suggests that is just false we had inflation and interest rates coming down pretty consistently from the early 1980s until until 2020 so 40 years and during that time some of the strongest economies with the best employment gains gains and output gains were in um periods when inflation was coming down and the link there is that when you have strong output growth um you tend to have strong productivity growth as well and productivity so output per Mana hour enables companies to actually pay higher wages without increasing their prices or they can increase their margins without increasing their prices now very recently companies have been doing the opposite companies even like PNG have been relying on pricing to maintain margins uh why is that well as they've pushed as prices went up the consumers started pulling back png's volume growth in the fourth quarter was down six percent that's crazy that's very unusual for a Staples company as well well so basically the consumer is saying no mas and I think while many at the fed and elsewhere think that these higher prices are going to be perpetuated and we'll get into the wage structure I think we're seeing quite the opposite uh we're going if volumes continue to be hit because the consumers are saying no I'm I'm not going to be buying that anymore well the hit is going to be to margins so uh I think I think monetary policy narratives have to change a bit here and haven't yet chairman Powell was out this week in front of Congress both houses of Congress sounding very hawkish why because some of the economic indicators that have come out recently look strong including initial unemployment insurance claims they're going down suggesting employment is is doing fine so we'll get into that in a moment when we talk about economic indicators but we're beginning to see uh Brewing here a banking crisis and the question we have to answer is this going to become systemic like Lehman Brothers in 0809 or and we're betting on this latter one here is this more like 1994 when uh Orange County went broke and that created a crisis to which the FED responded uh we think it's much more like 1994 because the setup was similar uh in 93-94 commodity prices had taken off as we were coming out of that uh recession it was an SNL induced recession so housing and and uh the Fed was railing against those price increases with higher interest rates it was a terrible year for growth stocks and that's how we would characterize uh 2022.

02. um but when Orange County went bust that was a sign that the FED had gone too far to watch Cappy's full report check out the link below what are your thoughts on the bank crisis do you think this is a critical hit to the crypto industry or was silvergate a victim of its own errors let us know in the comments if you want to see more on the world of crypto and tech make sure to like subscribe and hit that notification Bell as we put out daily content thanks for watching and we'll see you next time