저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼은 본인의 투자 철학과 경력을 설명했다. 하버드 비즈니스 스쿨 시절 독학으로 투자를 시작했고, 확신과 자만의 차이, 역발상 투자의 중요성을 강조했다. 대표 사례로 금융위기 때 파산 직전 쇼핑몰 리츠(General Growth)를 주당 몇 센트에 매수해 약 90배 상승한 경험을 언급했다. 투자 조언으로는 상장 기업에 투자하고, 이해 가능한 사업에 투자하며, 합리적 가격에 사고, 장기 보유 가능한 기업을 고르라고 했다. 코카콜라를 사례로 들어 단순하고 지속 가능한 사업 모델의 예시로 제시했다. 심리적으로는 군중 심리를 경계하고 시장 하락기에는 매도 충동을 억제하며, 변동성을 견딜 수 있는 규율이 필요하다고 강조했다. 성공한 사람들도 대부분 큰 실패를 겪었으며 역경을 다루는 방식이 중요하다고 말했다. 인재 채용 철학으로는 비전통적 배경의 인재를 기회를 주어 채용한 사례(플라이피싱 가이드, 테니스 선수 출신 리서치 담당)를 들었다. 특정 종목에 대한 명확한 가격 방향 예측이나 매매 추천은 없었다. 출연자 소속: 퍼싱 스퀘어 캐피털 매니지먼트 (영상 설명란 정보 없음, 본문 기준 확인).
다듬은 글
foreign I went to business school to learn how to be a good investor and I learned the first rule of investing which is you do your due diligence before you while you're in your your money and uh when I got to HBS I actually opened the course catalog for the first time and there wasn't a class on investing now there were classes on accounting there are classes on finance so I decided I had to develop my own little self-study program and I wanted to so I opened a Fidelity brokerage account I said this I had some money I'd made in the real estate brokerage business this was my tuition uh in the investment business and it was about a year of tuition and if I lost it it was as if I had gone to business school for you know two years but paid for three so I figured it wasn't like the the inverse of the Oxford one plus one program but um and uh you know I the first stock I bought went up and then I said okay I found what I want to do a little more involved in that but I I uh actually my father who's here he he came with us that's dad over there in the corner you can ask him whatever questions you want afterwards um he told me it was a really dumb idea to start an investment fund right out of business school and he recommended that I go work for Michael steinhardt or George Soros or one of the other famous investors at the time but I figured that I knew enough this is the The Perils of Youth um but uh the answer is I was an entrepreneur and uh I felt that I wanted to approach investing my own way as opposed to learn from someone else and it's one of the few things you can really learn on your own you can learn investing by reading books by reading annual reports by having a you can have a portfolio and invest a hundred dollars and you can and you can learn the business unlike many other businesses which require a lot more investing is about the best investments are the ones where we are The Confident we're right and everyone else is wrong okay and you have to in order to be you know been accused recently of being arrogant among other things no no I'm going to actually ask you that it was called it was pompous but that's okay pompous I don't think I'm pompous but I've certainly been accused of being arrogant and there's a difference between arrogance and confidence yeah if you're arrogant in investing you're going to get killed right if you're not confident you'll never make an investment right so you have to do a sufficient amount of work to be confident enough to have the conviction do something that's contrarian right we bought the stock of a very soon to be bankrupt retailer I'm sorry a shopping mall company during the financial crisis uh at pennies per share you have to be willing to look silly when you do something like that General growth stocks up 90 fold since our original investment um you know on that's we had confidence maybe people thought it was arrogant to believe that we could be successful in turning around the investing business you can learn by reading you know read everything Warren Buffett's ever written watch every YouTube video he's ever appeared in that's a great way to learn about investing but investing is more than just the way to really understand investing is to understand a business and one of the most important skills you need as an investor is distinguishing between a great business a good business a fair business and a bad business and one way to get a sense of the quality of a business is go to work for one so the recommendation I give to people graduating from Business Schools these days is this is the greatest time in history to work for a startup lots of incredibly interesting businesses being formed and if you can be one of the early employees you're going to learn a lot about how business Works how to make payroll how to Market your product how to design something and those skills I think are invaluable first of all you might even find it really interesting you might have joined the next Facebook so that's one thing even if the business fails you'll learn a ton from that I think that's the best experience you can get ultimately to be a good fundamental investor how do you be a successful investor now I'm assuming that you're not going to go into the business of investing and assuming that you're going to be a doctor or a lawyer you're going to pursue your passion but you're going to have some money they're going to save over time and I'm going to give you my advice on the topic it's not necessarily definitive advice but it's what the advice I would give my sister my grandmother on what she should do if she were in the same position I'd avoid investing in startup businesses where the prospects are not very well known because again you don't need to make 100 a year to have a fortune you just need to invest at an attractive return 10 15 percent over a long period of time your money grows very significantly so how do you avoid the riskiest Investments my advice would be to invest in public security invest in listed companies companies that trade on the stock market why because those businesses are tend to be more established they have to meet certain hurdles before they go public the stocks are liquid so you can change your mind if you want to sell if you invest in a private Lemonade Stand it's hard to find someone to take you out of that investment unless that business becomes fabulously profitable so that's piece of advice number one invest in public companies number two you want to invest in businesses that you can understand what I mean by that is there are lots of businesses that you come in that you deal with in the course of your day and your personal life whether it's a retail store that you know because you like shopping there or it's a product uh your your iPad or that you know you think is a great product but you unders you have to understand how the company makes money the business is just too complicated you don't understand how they make money even if they've had a great track record I would avoid it a lot of people thought Enron was an incredible business because it appeared to have a good track record but very few people understood how they made money it was good to avoid it another very important criteria is you want to invest at a reasonable price it could be a fabulous business that's done very well over a long period of time but if you pay too much for it you're not going to earn a very good return the last bit is that you want to invest in a business that you could theoretically own forever the stock market were to close for 10 years you wouldn't be unhappy what do I mean by that now again if you're going to compound your money at a 10 or 15 return over a 43 year period of time you really want a business that you can own forever you don't want to constantly have to be shifting from one business to the next and what are what are businesses that you can own forever well there are very few that sort of meet that standard uh maybe a good example is Coca-Cola right what's good about Coca-Cola is it's relatively easy business to understand you understand how coke makes money right they sell a formula uh syrup to bottlers into retail establishments and they make a profit every time they serve a Coca-Cola people are going to drunk a lot of Coca-Cola for a very long period of time the world's population is growing they sell in almost every country in the world and each year people drink a little bit more Coca-Cola so it's a pretty easy business to understand it's also a business that I think is unlikely to be competed away as a result of technology or some other new product right it's been around long enough people have grown used to The Taste uh you know they parents give it to their children and you can expect that it'll be around a long period of time to be a successful investor you have to be able to avoid some natural human Tendencies to follow the herd the stock market's going down every day your natural tendency is to want to sell the stock market's actually going up every day your natural tendencies want to buy so in bubbles you probably should be a seller in bus you should probably be a buyer and you have to have that kind of a discipline you have to have a stomach to withstand the volatility of the stock market I don't know there are very few people uh you look at the most successful people in the world I know very few of them that haven't had a major failure you know if you read through the uh they're not the financially most successful people if you read for the Forbes billionaire list and you read their stories you know they've had failed businesses and they've lost everything and they've hung on the you know they've almost died holding on to the ledge you know what's his name uh the K the uh the guy on CBS and uh oh yeah Sumner fire Summit Redstone Redstone so there are lots of examples of people who had huge adversity and I think it's how you deal with adversity that determines your ultimate success as opposed to how you deal with success that determines your ultimate success and then this guy that I met a money manager named Bob Chapman who uh I met on a panel seven years ago we were on a panel together shook hands never spoken to him since I've never had an email correspondence I've never seen him since but in the last 90 days he's been running the talk show circuit on how I'm you know either wrong or stupid or arrogant uh you know giving quotes of Vanity Fair um it's unfortunate uh you know I I don't mind criticism but I don't I don't like reading things that are I don't you know it's hard to read that for someone who doesn't know me well to be commenting on what I'm like as a person I find I find that difficult um but you know whatever I gotta you have to have a thick skin to be in this business uh and um you know if you end up in a very public uh situation you should expect to have uh fans and critics and you know I just try to focus on you know what my job is and we focus on making money for our investors and I live my life so my Approach in business in my personal life in a management role is Extreme Candor and I think that if you live that way you know you'll run the risk of offending various people over time but you'll have much better relationships because um you know if you tell people the truth first of all it's not typical you know a lot of people in the interest of politeness or fear of Confrontation or it's just uncomfortable don't speak the truth and that goes for people on boards lots of examples of super talented people sitting around the room as an institution is failing think of all the banks during the crisis where people were not willing to confront the CEO so I'm willing to confront the CEO uh and uh but I'm completely candid with him about his successes and his failures if you're an investor what would you be um that's a good question I mean I would do what I do now even if I weren't compensated for doing it um because I think it's a way for me to make the biggest contribution that I can make I mean I look I think about uh government if I could if I could effectuate change the same way I can effectually change in the in the private sector but I think I can have more influence as a private participant than a public participant so you're known for occasionally hiring people with some non-traditional financial backgrounds form a fly fisherman a tennis pro someone you met in a taxi so what actually are you looking for so most of the people that we have on the investment team are people with more conventional backgrounds uh half the team worked at Blackstone in either private Equity or Investment Banking a few guys from Goldman Sachs um but I'm a big believer you know I had internships in my life and uh you know if I meet a great human being you know I want to give some you know people who didn't go to Harvard Business School and didn't work at Goldman Sachs for four years you know some exposure so I met the beginning of Persia I met a guy named Oliver white who I believe is one of the you know he's become recognized one of the top fly fishing guides in the world very smart interesting Guy taught me fly fishing and I said look if you're interested in business and you want to uh intern at uh you know learn something about it you know come work for me and Oliver came and spent 18 months with us you're taking a very outdoorsy guy and you're putting them in Manhattan which is kind of an interesting uh thing he didn't like that part of it but uh he learned a ton about business and then he left he actually worked a lot on one of our proxy contest situations in the Ceridian we had a proxy contest one of the issues was the uh the CEO was using the corporate jet to do a lot of fly fishing junkets so we were able to track that stuff through his network of fly fishermen so it was useful in the proxy contest anyway um and uh Oliver left uh you know do and I backed him to buy a fly fishing lodge which the Abaco Lodge in uh in Abaco in the Bahamas and it's like you know 20 unlevered return on Capital and he's done an unbelievable job managing in and uh we hired a guy named Mary sadamski who I met on the tennis court a super talented guy went to Wake Forest uh you know top tennis player and uh he um you know I offered him a job and he's worked for us for the last couple of years and he did a lot of the research on Herbalife he did a phenomenal job so I just you know I was going to go to business school because he's going to he needs more training to come back into the business but I think it's a you know it's a nice thing to offer people those kind of ideas I always offered opportunities like that foreign
Comments 0