저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기(6개월) 시장 방향 예측은 무의미하며, 장기 투자 원칙을 지키는 것이 최선이다. 단기 예측의 무의미함: 인플레이션, 금리 인상, 경기침체 여부 등 단기 전망에 집중하지만 이는 중요하지 않고, 단기는 예측하기 어렵다고 설명한다. 단기 예측에 대한 조언: 단기 전망을 가졌더라도 확신을 가져서는 안 되며, 단기 전망에 따라 포트폴리오를 전면 교체해서는 안 된다. 장기 투자 원칙: 고객은 향후 10~30년을 보고 투자해야 하며, 6개월 후의 결과가 장기 성과에 큰 영향을 주지 않는다. 시장이 하락할 때 공포로 매도하고 상승기에 매수하는 행태는 성과를 해친다. 수익 제고 방법: 장기 시장 수익을 기본으로 하되, 시기 조절(진입·청산), 공격·방어 전환, 우량 종목 선택 같은 능동 전략으로 초과수익을 노릴 수 있으나 쉽지 않다. 초과수익의 조건: 다른 투자자와 다르게 생각하고 더 정교하게 사고하는 '2단계 사고'가 필요하다. 경쟁적 활동이므로 평균 이상 성과에는 지식 우위가 필요하며, 이것이 없다면 평균 수익에 만족하거나 지식 우위가 있는 전문가에게 자산 운용을 맡기는 것이 합리적이다. 리스크: 시장 공포 시기 매도와 과열기 매수는 성과를 저해하므로 감정 통제가 중요하다.
다듬은 글
I I my first book was called the most important thing and an interviewer last week said to me well what's the least important thing for investors and I thought for a minute I hadn't had that question before the least important thing is the short run everybody's obsessed with what is going to be inflation over the next six months what will the Central Bank do in terms of interest rates to fight the inflation and will the changes in interest rates produce a recession this is what everybody wants to know and consequently of course what will happen to security prices in the next six months and the answer is it doesn't matter that's not what matters if you think that's those are all short-term considerations it's all about the next six months three months 12 months whatever it might be number one we really can't know much about the short run number two if we develop an opinion about the short run we shouldn't have too much confidence in it it's it's hard to get that right number three nobody should change their portfolio Wholesale in response to what they think is going to happen over the next six months and number four it's not the next six months isn't what matters my clients and your clients should be investing for the next 10 20 30 years and if you have a position today what happens in the next six months is probably not going to affect the the outcome of the next 20 30 years and so why does everybody care about it so much and the answer is it's kind of like social media it's all around us people are talking about it all the time the newspapers talk about it the talking heads on TV talk about it and everybody gets on TV and they said well you think there's going to be recession in six months no I don't think so yes I think they're bad yeah not too bad but pretty bad this isn't what matters and and people drive themselves nuts uh with these matters and they hurt their performance because look at look at the markets today the markets are well down and everybody's afraid about what's going to happen in the next six months and if people get out today because they're concerned about what's going to happen in the next six months and it's going to be very hard to to decide when to get back in because if the market goes down it's going to be because the news is terrible and and if the news is terrible most people are not going to have the intestinal fortitude to get back in and they'll probably miss a rise so you can't do that timing thing very well you might as well abstain from trying in my opinion because most of your efforts are going to be counterproductive you're going to sell because you're depressed which means prices are depressed and things are on sale that's not the right time to sell and you're going to buy when you feel good and usually your good feelings will coincide with buoyant meaning high priced markets and that's not the time to buy so Steady As You Go is a much better idea than in out in out uh second level thinking really is a matter of understanding that the things people are trying to do in the market now you can buy and hold and you don't even have to think if you're a long-term investor you're you're absolved of the responsibility of thinking and making these decisions in a short on a short-term basis just buy a good portfolio hopefully we'll help you select a good portfolio and hold it you don't have to be a genius um but some people want to further enhance their returns by either getting in or getting out turning aggressive turning defensive or selecting Securities that will do better than the rest these are active management tactics that you can adopt if you want to try it not easy and kind of I would say embroider around the edges the main thrust of your return is going to come from what did the markets you're invested in do in the long run the markets and the companies but if you want to try so so you know you could buy a bunch of high yield bonds today and let's say make eight percent nine percent you say no I'd like to try to make 10.
so you can try to get in get out turn aggressive defensive or select the ones that will do better and avoid the ones that will do worse you can try these active management measures but to do that you have to think at a different level than other investors other investors on average you're going to make nine if you want to make 10 instead you have to think of something they haven't thought of you have to know something they haven't thought of you have to think at a at a level which is different and more sophisticated by definition not easy and I have an English friend Richard Oldfield who wrote a book I love the title simple but not easy the things we're trying to do for our clients are simple but they're not easy you know when I say get in get out turn aggressive turn defensive make Superior security selections security company selections I'm done it's a simple explanation of what our goal is it's just not easy to do because everybody's crying and this is a competitive this is a competitive activity investing you know you're compete you're competing to have Superior Returns versus everybody else so clearly you have to do something different from what other people do and something better than what other people do so what does that mean it sounds like it's a lot of words the first level thinker says this is a good company we should buy their securities most people look at it and see the same thing but the second level thinker says it's a good company but it's not as good as everybody thinks so it's going to produce a disappointment we should sell their Securities you see and you're just thinking through to a new level you're thinking through to the ramifications of of what everybody thinks uh and um I think that again it's simple to to explain the goal it's not easy to do but that's why uh there are superior and inferior investors that's why some people have good long-term records and some people don't survive for the long term because it's not easy but if you want to outperform I mean I would like each person who's listening to save themselves do you want to outperform or or are you happy with average performance it sounds kind of Un-American but I think in the long run average is really good enough foreign average which is a reasonable goal how will you do it and since this is a competitive activity you're competing against all the other investors out there and you want to have a better record than they do on average there has to be some advantage that you have so I would like the listener to say well what is my advantage and I think that to to be a superior investor you have to have what I call a knowledge advantage you have to either know facts that the other person doesn't know and that's very hard today because you know the in our country the SEC uh the goal is to make sure that everybody has the same information otherwise it's inside information which could be illegal so it's hard to get facts that the other person doesn't have on a given company or process them better so the people in the audience should say do I have some mental equipment that permits me to process the facts better and clearly in order to do that you have to be an expert is it reasonable for me to think I'm an expert um it's it's it's great to have aspiration but your aspiration should be based on some reality which is I know something the other people don't know is that a realistic thing to say and if not you should you know either settle for average or turn over your Capital to somebody who does have a knowledge Advantage for management and that's what we try to do
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