저자: Kevin · 외국인
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ceasefire 이후 약세장 저점 판단, 하드웨어·반도체(SOXL) 강세 지속 예상. 기관(BofA)도 risk asset 강세 언급. 인플레 기대(5y5y)는 안정 판단. 소프트웨어는 헤지펀드 노출 저점으로 매수 기회 언급하나 단기 공매도 재진입 경계. 이란 봉쇄는 선택적이라 긴장 완화, 유가 하락 흐름. 개인 장기투자는 고FCF·강한 가격결정력 저평가 종목 선호.
다듬은 글
Well, it has paid to be bullish over this last week and the institutions are saying both about what sectors people are flowing into, what sectors people are not allocated to, maybe where there's an opportunity, what's going on with short selling, what's going on with Iran, the blockade, the Saudis, the Europeans.
We're going to cover everything as succinctly as possible. I don't want to say quickly because then it sounds like we go quick. You know, we can make it last. Anyway, let's get into it. Uh first, bullish calls have obviously paid off over the last week. Uh last week I suggested that we are likely marking a bottom of the market and so far that was exactly what happened.
In our alpha reports last week, we suggested it might make a lot of sense to buy calls on the Qs 2 weeks to 45 days out and a lot of those are up over 100% now. People have made bank on those. Uh hopefully you have as well. We also made a call that hardware has done really well since the ceasefire announcement and likely would continue to do well since the ceasefire announcement coincided with a SpaceX IPO updates with not only a $2 trillion potential valuation, but also potentially utilizing Intel on that 14A fab for 2028-2029 production of a Tesla Terafab style chips.
That obviously really a topic for a different video, but all of that timing, ceasefire and uh this SpaceX Intel talk really led to well, frankly, this easy call in my opinion on hardware. SOXL is up over 50% since the bottom last week. So, guess who's chiming in now? The institutions. Days after my call last week, Bank of America actually ended up coming out and saying that the ceasefire is {quote} likely durable and that this equals bullish.
They literally wrote ceasefire durable equal sign likely bullish. In fact, their quotes, so you know this isn't just coming from me because if might already be a member of the Meet Kevin Alpha membership at meetkevin.com. But, the quote from Bank of America is quote, "We believe a durable ceasefire has been reached and is a catalyst for a sustained bullish recovery for risk assets." That's good for crypto and stocks, right?
And bonds. They think that peak yields and peak spreads are likely behind us while forward progress will remain uneven. Obviously, reason to be cautious, right? Quote, "We believe the coming months favor constructive credit positioning, disciplined extension into duration, aka bonds, and renewed focus on tax-efficient income as markets grind higher through the recovery phase." In other words, yo bro, we bullish stocks and bonds now that this ceasefire looks like it's doing pretty damn well.
Now, we're going to make that a few calls a few days after Kevin did, but that's okay. You know, I got a lot of heat in the comments for saying the bottom was likely in. You know, who knows? I mean, things can obviously change and get worse, but so far, I'll tell you if we look at actual charts of what's going on in terms of what matters, there are few things that you should really pay attention to.
In the very short term, one-year inflation expectations, which are really volatile. Everybody's talking about this on Twitter. It's like a stupid thing to talk about on Twitter. This is why I'm not even going to show you a picture of it. They've fallen back down. But, one-year inflation expectations are like It's like the stupidest thing ever.
Don't pay attention to it. Pay more attention to things like the five-year five-year break-even. Uh here's an example of what the five-year five-year looks like. The blue line is the current five-year five-year break-even inflation expectations. You can see that we had a modest bump over here during liberation time, this light blue line on the right.
And if anything, we've just sort of drifted net lower since then despite this Iran war. Now, the five-year five-year, the way this works is it's uh what do we think inflation is going to be starting five years out from now, so in 2031, and then between 2031 all the way to 2036. That's why they call it the five-year five-year.
Remember to subscribe for knowledge like this if it's stuff you're interested in. But, you know, that shows you more of a concern regarding, "Hey, over this next decade from now to 2036, are we really entering a stagflation 1970s, or is this just yet another, you know, short-term shock, or dare I say the word transitory shock where eventually inflation, you know, continues to quell down?" Now, obviously, we have major issues with oil prices still way elevated.
You know, we're still up 40% from where we were in January, which sucks and it's going to have broader implications. We still have problems in terms of how long this blockade is going to continue. But, it's worth noting something else. That before we get to talking about Iran and the blockade, it's worth mentioning that Goldman Sachs also observed the software bounce that we talked about yesterday.
They released a piece just this morning talking about the software bounce, indicating that software stocks are still down 30 to 35% from their peak, and they're sort of speculating as to whether or not the bottom might be near. Now, what's interesting is they actually break down the prime book exposure for well, which is basically hedge funds and institutions for software.
And it's really interesting. Take a look at this chart right here. This is the prime book exposure for US software, and you could really see software started coming kind of off on the blue line over here, which would be net exposure, and then long and short exposure is this sort of greenish line here.
You can see long and short ended up with, you know, a reduced exposure starting in in really 2023. That's when it started kind of coming down. But, net exposure, so once you net out whatever longs and shorts you have, those really fell off a cliff starting late like almost October-ish of 2025, really when you started seeing Anthropic and Claude really start killing it.
Uh new models coming out from Gemini, uh and then of course chat playing some catch-up. And they've they've gotten pretty damn good, right? Uh so uh this has led to a lot of fear and panic in software, and you can see the exposure has as really come to essentially a low over here in uh you know, now the second quarter of 2026.
In my opinion, that actually makes a great time to buy that sector, but you have to be kind of choosy here. In my opinion, when the hedge funds and institutions are running from the hill running for the hills and they're panicking, it to me it really means they're cashing in on short-term losses or really short-term gains maybe, and they're leaving long-term gains on the table.
That's my take. You know, they're really looking for trades so they can make their book for the end of the year. But as a long-term investor, somebody who's looking to buy stocks for the next 10 years, although we do talk short-term and medium-term swings on the Alpha report, for sort of a broader 10-year portfolio, which you know, I personally have or even House Hack has a longer-term portfolio, you know, my take is you want to look for blood in the streets.
Uh it's sort of like something that Warren Buffett would do. Uh and so I'm hunting for high free cash flow, fortress balance sheets, strong pricing power, low valuations, and frankly really bad momentum. So if the stock's been going down, they've got a gorgeous balance sheet, high cash flow, strong pricing power, and they're cheap, and the stock's down, you know, that's a combination that ultimately I value out in sort of a K PEG in in our um daily live streams that we do in the course member membership uh every morning before the market opens up.
Uh you know, we're really just looking for big PP. Big pricing power, you know, we really want big PP. That's it. So if you too want big Peepee, you remember you can always go over to meetkevin.com. Uh Uh join our Peepee Fest. So, uh now another thing to note and I wanted to scroll down to this is that Goldman Sachs indicates that in the software space a lot of shorts ended up getting redeployed yesterday per S3 partners.
They do a lot of the intra sort of bi-weekly short sell data. Uh this is a little bit complicated. The exchanges essentially report short interest data every 2 weeks. So, in between those 2-week intervals you have blindness. But, S3 partners they try to estimate what that short interest data is going to be in between that window.
And so, they're indicating that there's been some reloading of the short selling shotgun if you will. So, you know, that obviously is still bearish in the software for the near term. Maybe maybe not quite a bottom yet, but that's okay. So, also worth noting that Goldman says that last week a software selling made up 60% of the net selling in the market.
Now, let's talk about the blockade in Iran. Where are the strikes? Well, that's exactly what is very interesting here. See, the ceasefire appears to be holding. We're seeing a relaxation of you know, attacks in Lebanon. We are not seeing drones or missiles being launched by Iran. We are not seeing strikes being launched by the United States and Israel against Iran.
No ships have passed the Donald Trump blockade in the last 24 hours. Six vessels ended up obeying commands and reversed. There have been no interdictions or boardings yet. UN General Secretary Antonio says that talks are likely to resume soon and so far all of this is pretty damn good. Now, something that you should know about this blockade and I mentioned this on Sunday and people got pretty pissed about this.
This is what's really being called a selective blockade. Ships that do not visit Iranian ports are not subject to the blockade. And this is exactly what I suggested on Sunday. Sort of a I I described it as a permeable barrier where basically the United States says, "You can pass. You can't pass." Now, I ended up getting a lot of comments where people were making fun of me saying, "Kevin, if the word is black blockade, then then why you mean semipermeable?" "Yeah, but Kevin,
[snorts] isn't blockade?" And I'm like, "Come on, bro." Obviously, Donald Trump isn't going to block our allies. Why would he do that? Why shoot yourself in the foot when you're just trying to buy spite your enemy? So, this is not a surprise that this is a permeable barrier. Uh now, that permeable barrier nonetheless is having Saudi Arabia a little bit worried.
They were worried that if the blockade keeps going, Iran is going to push uh the Houthis to shut down Bab al-Mandab. I always screw that one up, but anyway. Uh that's because Saudi Arabia is basically exporting just as much oil as they were before the war. It's about 7 billion dollars or sorry, 7 billion barrels a day, which is a lot.
And it's because they can pipe a lot of their oil through their East-West pipeline over to uh you know, the other side away from the Persian Gulf and then get out uh through the Red Sea. That's great. And that's helped lead oil prices, especially futures contracts, to actually come down quite a bit.
We could see the June contract of WTI is now sitting at $88 and the May contract is sitting at about $92. This is well under that $100, you know, scary threshold. Brent's at 95-ish, which, you know, all of this is not terrible, which is good. So, fewer strikes, the blockade is holding so far. Six ships were turned around.
Uh however, some commercial shipping vessels, about 20 in the last 24 hours, have ended up, you know, traversing the Strait of Hormuz in part because they're not docking at Iranian docks. So, some traffic is moving. Now, there's talk about negotiating a potential deal where Donald Trump would just negotiate some form of a pause where Tehran, Iran, won't or will agree to enrich uranium.
Won't Let me rephrase this. Will agree not to enrich uranium for 20 years. Which is like really ironic if that is where we end up going. Donald Trump says he doesn't like it. He wants sort of a permanent end to it, but he also didn't kill that idea. But, it's really, really ironic because the deal that Donald Trump tore up, the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA, I know this is a political hot button issue, you know, when people hear that, people on left and right, everybody gets pissed off.
But, it's worth noting that the JCPOA would have prevented Iranian enrichment for 10 to 15 years. That's what the Iranians agreed to. 10 to 15 years, no enrichment. And now, there's talk that the United States is offering Iran, "Okay, okay, okay, okay. 10 years later, now after we've bombed the crap out of you, how about we get 20 years no enrichment?" And obviously, that could be a negotiating starting point, so we might just end up at a very similar place to what the JCPOA was, which then makes you wonder why could you not have just had JCPOA 2 rather than bomb the crap out of Iran?
I I don't know. Maybe you needed that to get them to negotiate. I don't know. Like I say, I'm I don't You know, I'm not here to pick political sides. I really don't give a flying F about politicians. I hate them all. I think they're all corrupt and they all want to spend more money and spend our country's you know, send our country's debt to oblivion.
So, I just a little bit stick my head in the sand about the emotions around it all. I just try to stick to the facts and go, "Well, politics and irony, you know, is like what do you want says, "Fate loves irony, huh?" But, anyway. So, now something else that's quite interesting that's also bullish that's What's on is that Europe is planning for a of a coalition of countries to free up the Strait of Hormuz after the United States concludes the war.
So, I think European countries are kind of expecting Donald Trump to be like, "All right, we got a deal. Peace. We don't need the Strait of Hormuz. We're out of here." Uh except it'd be something more like, "We obliterated them. We accomplished everything we wanted and then some. They gave us every single thing we asked for.
We got a huge deal. No No nobody knows how to make deals quite like us. No one. No one does it like we do." Anyway, um I think Donald Trump is just going to sort of peace out. And uh when he does, he'll sort of leave a strait that still has mines in it. And so now there's talk about Germany, France, and the United Kingdom coming together uh and creating sort of this coalition of the willing to mine, clear, and control the Strait of Hormuz or at least provide safety in the strait.
Uh Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have also been open to inviting China and India. Obviously unclear if they're going to get involved. Now, something else that's been ridiculously good for the economy, which during the last 6 weeks I've been mentioning that the economy has actually had pretty dang bullish data.
Uh one of those is uh weekly ADP. Weekly ADP payrolls came in this morning at 39,000 on the weekly level. That's insane. 39,250. That is a very good weekly ADP report. That is for the week ending March 28th. So technically we already got the March uh BLS report, but Bureau of Labor Statistics report.
Now, I have jade I had jade and still have jade about that March report because that March report continues to this trend of sort of writing down labor force participation, which in my opinion just sort of keeps the unemployment rate low as you know, you just conveniently move people to no longer in the workforce.
In my opinion, that's either rigging or it just makes us more sensitive to labor force participation going up. And both of those are equally bad. So, you can't be an all-in margin bull right now. Even though tactically I've been bullish since last week, we've been buying the dip, we've been sending trade alerts.
Uh we do that over at meetkevin.com. Remember you can join there. We got a coupon expiring in a few days. Uh you know, this this to me does not mean, you know, yellow everything. There are no risks left in the economy. There definitely still risks left, but things things are looking pretty decent. Uh you know, especially if we could wrap this war up and so far it does look like the ceasefire is holding a little bit, which I like to see.
Now, something else that I'd like to just show you is that uh you know, House Hack just bought a doc home. Well, House Hack has invested into a doc home. It is going to be the greatest doc home ever. In fact, we might even Airbnb it. So, one day you even might be able to be I don't know what my accent is.
You might be able to be a This is kind of cool. I mean, you can come out here paddle board and wave run around to the ocean if you want or or take a you know, a zodiac or something out. This is pretty nice. Uh this is R&D, by the way. Yeah, anyway, that is a uh $2 million property that we were um paddle boarding off of that we uh think is probably worth somewhere around 2.7, maybe even more once it's finished.
Uh who knows how much we build and and improve to it. Could even be over $3 million once we're done with it. So, really excited. So, uh you know, still still at the same time, you know, investing money, uh throwing it into where I find good deals, whether that's software or real estate. Also, uh thank you to all those of you who gave recommendations on either Traxxas or not Traxxas or whatever yesterday regarding the uh electronic uh sort of uh RC cars, the the higher-end RC cars.
Uh I got uh I I'll have to bring it in here, but I got uh Max a smaller one to start with because these puppies are so fast and I don't want him to destroy people's ankles. So, we'll see how good he can get with uh a smaller one first. Uh but uh we'll reveal the one we got uh soon enough. Feel free to follow me on Instagram as well and uh maybe we'll post some stories over there at uh Meet Kevin on Instagram.
Thanks so much for being here, folks. Uh seriously, uh good luck out there. I think there are plenty of opportunities left in the stock market. Don't just look at the Nasdaq. I mean, the Nasdaq, it was an easy call this morning in the Alpha report to say, you know, we're going to be marching back to 627.
We called that at 620 and uh you know, with 627, wow, look at that. I mean, we went to 628. That's the easy call. But the Qs, I don't think it are really where the opportunity is. I mean, frankly, like if you just hide all the lines over here, I mean, we're just back to where we were uh almost right here at all-time highs on on the Nasdaq 100.
I think really the opportunity is in some of the underlying components. And so, I'm really, really excited about uh about some of the opportunities out there. ]
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