저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미국-이란 봉쇄 및 협상 상황을 다룸. 시장 바닥 통과(617까지 반등)로 판단하며 단기 낙관, 다만 봉쇄 장기화·유가 고공행진·중동 긴장에 따른 리스크 경고. 금리 인하 확률 하락(12월까지 34.6%). 팔란티어는 저점 부근 분할매수 관심 표명하나 현재는 미매수, 가격 목표 언급.
다듬은 글
We've obliterated them so hard, we're now going to blockade the blockaders. Hey everyone, Meet Kevin here. Obviously, our kids didn't take the blockade too shabby. This morning we expected in our alpha report the bottom of the market would come within a 15 minutes and that from there things would be relatively stable.
But beyond relative stability, we actually made it all the way back to 617, which we projected would take at least two to four weeks when we started talking about call options and the bottom of the market last week, which for now looks pretty dang good. Looks like not only has the market secured a bottom if we zoom out on the one-hour chart here on Weble, we see the bottom was about 555 coming all the way up to 618 today before retracing right to that 617 line.
Not too shabby at all. Pretty strong day actually today and we held that 607 line in the pre-market. So, what is the latest in terms of facts of what is going on? What is my opinion in terms of the greatest risk now going forward? And what is this talk about a second round of talks with Iran? Where do we stand and where is all of this likely going to go?
So, let's break it all down as quickly as possible. First things first, the regime Iran wouldn't open the straight during the ceasefire. So, obviously there's little reason to assume that the Iranians are at this point bullied into a corner where they actually desire negotiating some form of resolution with the United States.
Hence, really JD Vance's marathon 21-hour negotiation, which isn't really that much of a marathon, uh in my opinion was set up to fail. But it did put sort of a good faith effort out there that hey look, we're willing to talk, but you know, we're going to ratchet it up over here from the United States point of view.
Now, the Wall Street Journal editorial board says this is actually a good thing and that even though oil prices are going to spike through this, this is essentially Donald Trump calling Iran's bluff and now Iran and China have an incentive to both restore traffic. Uh that is because about 80% of Iranian oil shipments likely went to China in 2025, which is a huge lever to try to bring China in and we know Donald Trump doesn't like China.
And this is really a master class in beating up China. Obviously, the greatest risk is that things spiral out of control. eparate from the editorial board, later in the day ended up reporting that China's foreign minister has announced they are ready to play a constructive role in promoting peace in the Middle East, which is literally exactly what the Wall Street Journal editorial board predicted.
Now, this makes sense because a blockade is going to be very expensive for Iran. It could cost Iran up to $435 million per day in lost revenue including $276 million in lost exports for Iran. This is a big deal and potentially risks really like starving the economy in Iran. Now, Iran does have oil stores and storages that they could lever up even around the world, even have some floating stores out in Malaysia and China, which they could leverage against, they could take loans against with the Chinese or even the Russians.
They obviously have allies that are going to help them try to survive this. So, there are ways they can get through this, but really this is a tool for trying to squeeze Iran now economically. Now, there is an argument being made that Iran could end up suffering some form of deflationary crisis due to this economic crushing that we'd basically be imputing on Iran.
There's this company called Vortexa, they're a data firm, and they argue that an export collapse combined with no cash from imports could lead to hyperinflation and currency devaluation in Iran as they print money and basically you get hyperinflation and that finally motivates the people to turn around and overthrow the Iranian regime.
Which a lot of people wonder, hey, Donald Trump at the beginning of this war on February 28th said, hey, make sure you rise up against your regime, you know, we're here to help. We're going to strike them, you guys rise up and nobody's risen up to overthrow the regime. Now, some people say that that's because the protesters from December, January were really just sort of like paid protesters and it was all sort of a ruse.
I you know, it's hard to know exactly what to believe here. So, I always try to just keep it straight to the facts the best we can and then let you sort of make your own decisions. But the reality is once you start getting true economic pain as a fan like what when people are lining up in at food banks because they're starving, you know, that often times can start leading to a lot of pressure on a regime.
So, it's possible that Donald Trump is really trying to pressure Iran from multiple angles, limit their oil exports mostly going to China, force China to purchase more expensive oil elsewhere in the global economy. So, you're really now squeezing China and you're squeezing Iran. And the goal in doing so is to get them both to basically demand Iran give up its nuclear weapons program and really their nuclear ambitions.
Now, this makes sense and we'll see where this goes and of course we have to get to where things can go wrong. But first it's it's just worth clarifying again a little bit about the JCPOA. Some people have brought up the JCPOA, which remember that did give Iran about $400 million of its own sanctioned money back.
And through that 2020 15 Iran nuclear deal, the Iranians did agree to suspend their nuclear weapons program, but only for a certain period of time. The intention at that time was that during that suspension time we'd be able to inspect Iranians weapons facilities and their enrichment facilities and then negotiate more with them through diplomacy over time.
That's one way of foreign policy is using diplomatic means, negotiated truths and settlements and agreements. That's diplomacy. Then obviously there's just military might. And that is what Donald Trump prefers. This is why in part Donald Trump chose to tear up the JCPOA because it didn't address the missiles or weapons program over the long term, which of course Israel hated.
And so Donald Trump's method is more let's just force them into submission. There are pros and cons to both, but obviously the big con right now is, all right, well, what happens if we start getting fast boats attacking our 15 warships in place to enable the blockade that we have, both missile destroyers and otherwise?
This is mostly the United States at this point given that the United Kingdom and France will not participate. And you know, the risk is that not only do we end up having to board tankers or becoming, you know, victims to potential naval mines or worse, Iranian drone or missile attacks against our ships, which obviously the goal is to take these down and and to defend ourselves, but if our ships get overwhelmed and all of a sudden we have hundreds of dead Americans because one missile hit one of our American ships, you know, now all of a sudden the cost of war go up and the cost of an escalated conflict grow as the Iranian regime gets emboldened that aha, we got him, right?
We got we got him in the fishbowl, so to speak. So, really this is a game of time now. Iran is slowly getting choked by this blockade. China slowly gets pissed because they have to pay more elsewhere, but the entire global economy also has to pay more because if China goes buys else oil elsewhere, then that's going to drive up prices and lower supplies everywhere else.
So, even though there are big costs to Iran, it also increases the cost for the entire world. And this is why in part the odds of a rate cut did fall a little bit after this blockade. a decline. The probability of a rate cut is sitting at, let's see here, 34.6% by December. So, it did fall about five to 10 percentage points in terms of a chance, but you know, that doesn't mean that things are all okay.
In fact, the International Financial Stability Board has just warned that this Iranian and Middle East crisis really risks bonds, asset values, private credit, multiple vulnerabilities basically collapsing at exactly the same time. This comes as Hezbollah is rejecting talks between Lebanon and Israel and really suggests that the the tinderbox is hot, all right?
So, it's kind of like we got a tinderbox that we could use to make a fire and it's really hot and we don't want to hold it and we're not sure which corner of that box is going to start sparking and then you've got a conflagration and a crisis, right? And now remember the goal here and if you like this, you know, sort of delivery, make sure to subscribe to the channel, but but the goal is always just to give you as many facts as possible because I feel like last week markets cheered a little bit that Israel was entering direct negotiations with Lebanon, but when I read that I was like, do people not realize that Israel and Lebanon are not fighting?
Israel is striking targets inside of Lebanon, but that's to fight what Israel calls the vermin or the virus inside of Lebanon, Hezbollah, which is really just sort of this parasite living in the host of Lebanon. So, it's kind of like Lebanon is the house and the Israelis are trying to bomb the basement because Hezbollah is in there, right?
And then the house collapses because well, you know, you bomb the foundation, the whole thing falls. So, you know, that was a little weird last week, but then again, you know, we had a massive short covering over the last week and that's why we called the bottom too. You know, people made fun of me in the comments saying, "Kevin, you called the bottom too soon." I'm like, "No, I don't think so." And you know, we've been actively been buying the dip in software stocks mostly because I mean today software had a fantastic day.
Part of that was due to Oracle and sort of, you know, enthusiasm. Last week we had a lot of short covering in the market. Honestly, you don't have to buy my stuff over at meetkevin.com. I mean, I encourage you do. I I think we have a great program and I think we do great things. And you get all the trade alerts of exactly what we're buying the fundamental analysis.
So, it's I mean, you get a combination of technical analysis, ourses, live streams, and trade alerts, right? I mean, it's a lot of value in one package. But my point is there are a lot of opportunities out there. I mean, honestly, I'm just going to give you one and I'm not buying it right now, but I got my eyes on it because it keeps going down in value and and I kind of I've liked this stock for a very long time.
I called it one of the first two actual artificial intelligence plays back in 2023. And if you bought it back in 2023, you would have made a crap load of money because back in 2023, this thing was selling for like $15. Okay? Uh you probably already know what this stock is. This stock is Palantir. But Palantir has actually grown up substantially into its valuation with its earnings and its forward earnings growth projection.
Uh you know, I'm not tempted to buy it at this particular price, but I have to say the fact that it's come down now 70 bucks from $207, you know, it's like a third, you know, I've got I've got some targets where I'm like, "Man, if this if this hits some of my magic numbers, I'm setting out a trade alert.
I'm buying this sucker, right?" Uh but but the point is there there are a lot of opportunities. And they don't have to be the same stocks that I'm buying. You know, I'm just saying there's a lot of stuff that during these geopolitical nervousnesses and hisses, uh you know, create opportunities. Now, what what are the problems that could unfold?
Well, obviously the the risk here is uh if this Well, basically it's if Look, this is all about higher for longer. Not higher for longer interest rates, higher for longer oil. The longer oil stays high and expensive and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by the Iranians and the United States since we're now blocking the blockaders.
We will block the blockaders and nobody else blocks as well as we do. In fact, some might say we are the greatest of blockers ever. The world has never seen blockers quite like us before. They see us and and people they don't even try. They don't even try because they know if they try, we will board them.
And we don't even have to board all of them. We just have to board some of them because it'll send the message to all the others. Don't even try to mess with my block. Anyway, um you know, the the risk is obviously not only American lives being lost, but that even if we have a second round of talks, which Donald Trump is open to, Iran's foreign minister is open to, and we have a ceasefire expiring a week from tomorrow, which would be the 21st of April.
So, we still have a little technical ceasefire window here. And Israel, in fairness, has shelled out on bombing inside of Lebanon since last Wednesday, which is good. It kind of suggests that maybe we could have another round of talks and maybe we can actually get somewhere. Hopefully, that's the absolute hope.
And during the blockade, maybe we can start working on some demining and we can really relax all of the pain that's going on. That's my hope. I still think the bottom is in. Obviously, things could get worse. So, I think there's always a good reason to be skeptical. But um you know, China doesn't like this blockade and this is really good pressure on China and I think getting them involved with the Iranians is fantastic news and is actually likely to help push the second round of talks to something more progressful by the 21st when the ceasefire expires.
And I mean, we know how much they extend this stuff, so they could always extend it again, too. So, we'll see. Anyway, that's that's it for today. So, go check out meetkevin.com want to learn about anything else that we've got going on. You can also check out househack.com if you like the real estate stuff coming out within the next couple months, our valuation AI, very exciting.
And with that said, everything else over here is going great. I hope you're doing well. Thanks for subscribing. Some you know, make sure you go to Dave & Busters on Wednesdays. It's not sponsored. That's usually just when they do the half-price stuff. And now I think I'm going to take Max to the hobby store because when I was a kid, we used to use those nitro Traxxas RC cars.
Oh, and Jack pulled a sick card yesterday. Uh I pulled a sick card, too. What did I pull? Well, it was this wasn't This was okay. I pulled a Caterpie right here, which was nice. Uh so, that was great. I got a really nice rare right here. I think that was somewhere around 17 bucks uh raw. And then Jack pulled like a $37 raw card yesterday, which I think those are worth like three or 400 bucks if you get a PSA 10 on them and PSA 9's probably like 90 to 100 bucks.
So, some pretty good pulls on Pokémon lately. Anyway, back to Traxxas. When I was a kid, I always used to use the uh nitro uh Traxxas cars, the RC cars, which were stinky, oily, messy. You had to calibrate the carburetor all the time, change the filter. You know, it's a lot of work. These days, I guess the like electric induction engines these puppies got are insane.
So, if anybody has any recommendations on these, drop me a comment. I'll be watching over the next couple hours here. But uh I'm pretty excited about it. So, anyway, thanks so much. I hope you're doing great out there. I love you all. Appreciate you being here and we'll keep trying to give you concise facts on a regular basis. Thanks for being here. Good luck. By.
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