저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 주식·주택 거품과 저금리 정책의 폭발 가능성을 경고하며, 60/40 포트폴리오는 쓸모없어지고 원자재 중심의 장기 인플레이션 환경을 대비해야 한다고 본다. 거품과 경제 충격: 2000년형 성장주 거품과 2006~2008년 주택 거품이 겹치면 피해가 훨씬 커진다. 2008년 미국 주택 거품 붕괴 때 주식도 50% 폭락했다. 현재 미국 주택은 가계소득 대비 2006~2008년보다 비싸고, 지난해 주택시장 지수는 20% 급등해 신고점을 찍었다. 단 캐나다·호주·뉴질랜드·런던·파리보다는 여전히 싸다. 자산 가격 상태: 주식 거품이 2000년과 비슷하고, 원유(약 88달러)를 비롯한 원자재는 고평가, 실질금리는 역사상 최저 수준이다. 채권과 주식이 모두 비싸므로 전통적 60/40 포트폴리오는 완전히 쓸모없다고 본다. 연준 풋(Put) 약화: 그린스펀·버냉키·옐런·파월을 거치며 시장 하락 시 금리인하나 유동성 공급으로 구제하는 '풋' 기대가 있었으나, 지금은 부채/GDP가 훨씬 높고 금리는 이미 매우 낮아 도구가 크게 제약된다. 풋이 남아 있더라도 심각하게 훼손된 상태다. 인플레이션 전망: 그랜섬은 과거 20년간 인플레이션을 거의 다루지 않았으나 지금은 다시 주요 변수가 됐다고 본다. 1970~80년대식 폭등보다는 상승·하락을 반복하며 20세기 후반처럼 계속 논의의 중심에 있을 것이라고 전망한다. 원자재와 구조적 제약: 저렴한 석유·니켈·구리 등 유한한 자원이 고갈되기 시작했고, 식량가격지수는 높으며 기후변화로 병목과 가격 급등이 잦아질 것이다. 현재 비싸 보이는 원자재는 더 오를 수 있고, 원자재(또는 일부 원자재) 보유가 인플레이션 시기의 탈출구가 될 수 있다. 인구 측면에서는 노동력 부족과 출산율 급락(중국 출생아 1080만 명 수준)이 진행 중이다. 펀드 전략: 가스-디젤, 브렌트-WTI 등 수많은 소규모 상대가치 베팅을 하는 헤지펀드들이 잘 대응할 수 있다고 본다. 자원 분야에서도 큰 동적 움직임이 나올 것으로 예상한다. 연준 평가: 연준이 점진적 금리인상으로 인플레이션을 통제할 수 있다는 확신에 대해, 거품 붕괴의 고통을 연준이 충분히 인식하지 못한다고 비판한다. 그린스펀의 닷컴·주택 거품 방치와 장기간의 금리 인하 정책을 문제 삼는다. 파월 평가: 파월에 대해서도 신뢰하지 않으며, 저금리 정책을 만병통치약처럼 여기고 부작용을 무시한다고 본다. 자산 가격을 체계적으로 밀어올리고 금리를 마이너스로 내리면 자산 보유자에게 돈이 몰려 불평등이 심화된다고 지적한다. 리스크: 거품 붕괴 시 소비 위축과 주택 충격이 결합해 경제 전반에 심각한 피해가 발생할 수 있다. 장기 인구·자원 제약으로 가격 스파이크가 반복될 수 있다. 출연자 전망 요약: 주식시장 거품 붕괴와 주택 충격이 임박했고, 인플레이션은 지속적 변수, 원자재는 유리, 60/40은 무용하다는 것이 핵심 견해다.
다듬은 글
if the super bubble bursts as you predict it will what happens what happens to the economy what does history tell us some bubbles are very specialized to u.s growth stocks like 2000 and they and they hurt there is a wealth effect people lose money they they pull back on their spending but they don't hurt anywhere near as much as when you combine that with a housing bubble so in 2008 where we had the only housing bubble in american history that burst and the stock market came down 50 percent in sympathy then you're talking serious damage to the economy through the income effect because this time we have as a multiple of family income u.s housing suddenly is more overpriced than it was ever in the housing bubble of 2006 to 2008 it's and and they got there this last year since we last spoke the biggest increase twenty percent that the u.s housing market index has ever had has taken it to a new high and they are in the us still much cheaper than canada australia new zealand london paris etc so that is a global event that could cause enormous pain so we have a housing problem we have a stock market bubble like 2000 we have overpriced commodities oil is 88 and and we have of course the lowest real rates in the history of map if bonds are overpriced and stocks are overpriced does that make the traditional 60 40 balance portfolio useless absolutely useless for years investors have taken comfort in the notion of an implicit put any time the market stumbled the fed would effectively bail it out with a rate cut or more recently by injecting liquidity the greenspan put became the bernanke put which became the yell input and finally the power put does inflation and the handcuffs that it puts on it complicates it and yes it limits it it probably does not remove it because of inflation yeah and and because of low rates and now you don't have the tools that greenspan had bernanke was more limited he needed a lot of help from from uh treasury from government spending and what about now now you have a much higher ratio of debt to gdp you have much more debt on the balance sheet of the federal reserve and you have much lower rates they will try they will have some effect there is some element of the put left it is just heavily compromised as you suggest how worried are you about inflation i haven't written about inflation for 20 years i when i did quarterly letters i never featured inflation it i didn't think it was on the radar screen it is now on the radar screen once again it's not that inflation will go roaring back to 1972 or 1982 it's that it will always be part of the discussion from now on in my opinion instead of forgetting about it it will be spiking and irritating and falling back and then spiking again it will be part of the scenery in the way it used to be in the second half of the 20th century there's a lot about this economy i think that will be dragged back into the late 20th century we've had a very very abnormal honeymoon goldilocks period for 20 years which i think is ending let me put it this way we're in the early stages of running out of raw materials of course we live on a finite planet there's only a certain amount of cheap oil cheap nickel cheap copper and we're beginning to hit some of those boundaries and we're going to have bottlenecks here there and everywhere the food price index of the u.n is about as high as it gets a growing food is not getting easier climate change is coming with heavy floods serious droughts and higher temperatures none of these make farming easier so we're going to live in a world of bottlenecks and shortages and price spikes and we have to get used to it and learn to manage our way around it so commodity prices that people perceive to be high right now may yet go quite a bit higher i think so and it may well turn out that owning commodities or selected commodities will be something of an escape valve commodities have a long history of doing quite well when inflation picks up for obvious reasons and inflation is quite likely to pick up looking out into the future it is pretty clear that we are running out of labor fertility rates have dropped like a stone china is reeling from the shock of finding that it has 10.8 million babies last year it's only the other the other year seven or eight years ago it had 20.
and this means absolute certainty that the cohorts of 20 year olds coming into the workforce will will be smaller going forward everywhere everywhere in the developed world we're below replacement in fertility you know the universe of professional investors well is there anyone out there whom you expect to navigate these waters well i think there's quite a few hedge funds that have a style of making a hundred small bets trading gas prices against diesel prices and brent uh oil against uh texas oil they do a thousand arcane little relationships they're all independent of the market if they do it well they'll make a few percent maybe even quite a few percent and there will be some enormous dynamic moves in resources the federal reserve is confident that it can contain inflation with a series of incremental rate hikes what do you think it will take i think the fed absolutely does not get the pain that's involved with a bubble breaking you can see that in the history of the last 50 years greenspan encouraged the tech bubble he bragged about the productivity gains from the internet that would last forever actually productivity has declined slowly but surely since then when it broke it caused a lot of pain but anki learnt nothing he encouraged the housing bubble he denied its existence even though it was a three sigma one in a hundred year event that had never occurred in american history before and what have we learned we just went straight back into the game over stimulating pushing the rates down down and down they have gone for 50 years so they started at 16 on the long bond and now the real return you would get is minus two you've been a long-time critic of alan greenspan that's true you're a critic of ben bernanke and i suppose by extension janet yellen too do you have any confidence in the current chairman jay powell no no he hasn't expressed any reservations about the greenspan bernanke yellen powell policy of pushing rates down they act as if a low rate is a panacea and comes with no downside that is clearly nonsense it's created i think the biggest evil in in our society and that is inequality if you drive up the price of assets systematically and it's bound to happen if you drive the rates down to negative territory who do you make money for you make money for the people with assets
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