저자: 짐로저스 · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 향후 원자재 강세장과 이후 대형 약세장 도래를 전망하며, 원자재 투자 비중을 유지·확대하겠다고 밝힘. 결론: 원자재 강세장 지속, 주식은 말기 상승 후 심각한 약세장 예상. 중국 투자: 1988년경 중국 주식시장 개설 무렵 투자 시작, 1999년 본격 투자 후 지속 보유. 중국 경제·인구 규모의 잠재력을 강조하며 자녀 세대에 유리할 것이라고 봄. 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁: 미국이 2014년 우크라이나 정권교체를 주도해 현 사태를 촉발했다는 입장. 양측 모두 잘못했으며 전쟁이 유럽·미국·러시아에 장기 파장을 줄 것이라고 봄. 전쟁이 인플레이션을 가속한다고 진단. 원자재 전략: 인플레이션 방어 수단으로 원자재 보유가 최선이라 주장. 러시아·우크라이나가 농산물·탄화수소 대생산국이라 원자재 강세 요인이 된다고 봄. 수십 년 전 원자재 지수를 만든 이유이며 현재 원자재 투자 비중이 크다고 밝힘. 원자재 강세장이 아직 길게 남았다고 전망. 통화 정책 전망: 중앙은행이 시장 조정 때마다 더 많은 돈을 찍어낼 것이라 예상. 이로 인해 원자재 강세가 이어진다고 봄. 주식 전망: 미국 강세장은 역사상 최장 기간(약 13년)이며 금리·인플레이션 상승 국면에서 주가가 고평가 상태라고 지적. 주식은 한 번 더 마지막 상승(블로오프) 후 매우 심각한 약세장이 올 것이라 경고. 이미 일부 주식을 보유하지만 공매도는 아직 시작하지 않았다고 언급. 부채·정책 리스크: 2008~2009년 위기는 과도한 부채 때문이었고 이후 전 세계 부채가 급증해 다음 약세장은 더 나쁠 것이라 봄. 정부가 위기 대응 수단을 소진하고 있어 향후 큰 피해(casualties)가 나타날 수 있다고 시사. 출연자 전망 요약: 원자재 보유·확대 유지, 주식은 단기 고점 이후 대형 약세장 대비 필요.
다듬은 글
well my original when i went to china's i drove around china several times on my motorcycle uh in the 80s i could see what was happening i finally found a stock market there was no stock market but they opened the stock market 1988 or so on one of my trips i went down knocked on the door and said here i am i want to i want to buy shares because since i've been investing in stocks for a few decades found the stock market started investing in shares only really seriously in the late 90s it was impossible before that uh because i could see i knew that someday you'd if you'd invested in america in 1899 you'd have been very very happy well here was 1999 and i could see the possibilities of investing in the chinese stock market so i did so and i have been doing so ever since i was once in china speaking and i came across tiger and i i thought it was pretty strange what these guys were going to try to do from a chinese base but i could see that they were very smart guys they had a lot of drive and they had vision and if they could do it they had to be successful and it had to be a great thing to do so there i was and the same thing i figured 50 years from now my children will be very very happy that i invested in china and that i invested in tiger you can ask me in another 40 years or so um yeah very very very very interesting i mean like again i think a lot of people uh whether they're in europe or in the us on can't really appreciate the scale of china just in terms of the population and the economy and the potential of where it's going as well um to what extent with what we're seeing now in the world and um the the challenge is going i remember reading a uh you know something you wrote once which was that pretty much every country in the world you know has changed its borders in the last 200 years so everything's always in constant flux and change uh there's obviously many you know many out there that believe that things are going to get a lot worse before they get better uh what's your personal view as to what we should be expecting or at least preparing for uh with what's happening to you politically around the world at the moment specifically with what's happening with russia ukraine uh and the kind of escalations that are taking place right now well the russian ukraine war is is a little bit absurd it really started because america engineered a coup in ukraine in 2014 you know throughout the government and put in a government that was friendly to the us and to nato and that has led to the current situation i mean i'm not suggesting the russians are doing anything right nobody is doing anything right in ukraine neither the russians nor the ukrainians but it somebody should have and could have figured out a way to solve this problem it seems to me unfortunately now the gates of war have been unleashed and it's not easy to close that gate once you open it and i'm afraid that this is going to continue to have repercussions in europe certainly in america certainly in russia it's interesting roger that not many countries outside of europe are supporting the sanctions etc so much of the world either is saying we don't care about it or it's it's not clear-cut who's right or wrong uh in the u.s of course it's clear-cut the russians are horrible people the rest of the world often doesn't see things the way washington d.c does uh fortunate or unfortunately and i'm afraid this is another period like that when other many people are questioning who's right and who's wrong here as far as i'm concerned they're both wrong this is an insane war it can ruin a lot of things and of course it's accelerating the inflationary movement which is already underway in the world and the way to protect yourself from inflation the best way to in inflation the prices go up if you own the things that go up you're going to get rich you're certainly going to protect yourself and so that's one of the reasons i started this commodity index decades ago and that's i have a lot of investments in commodities now because i can see that the commodity bull market may have a long way to go yes and partly because of russia and ukraine because of the madness that's happening there they're both huge producers of agriculture hydrocarbons i mean they produce a lot of stuff that the world uses absolutely i mean we i'm flying this weekend uh i'm flying uh back from u.s to london and then on to warsaw in poland where where i have been for the last two years with my girlfriend like you know waiting at the pandemic and uh and and when you see i mean like it just happened this week uh you know russia cutting off uh all the gas to poland and immediately the difference in the actual uh fuel prices that are taking place right now as well to what extent right now given that there is all of this man-made turmoil that's taking place so it's not even like you know like slow moves changes that are happening immediately to what extent uh i do is your approach uh to be looking at what you need to be doing to move into more those commodities that actually are like like ending up having shocks uh put on them uh to what extent are you like letting things write out based on the fact that is is it's quite difficult to ever know exactly what the next movers people are going to be making quite difficult you mean it's not easy i didn't know that well maybe easy for you i'm glad you warned me uh commodities were in and up cycle anyway because of supply demand for a variety of reasons then along came gigantic amounts of money printing like the world has never seen and borrowing and spending like the world has never seen so we have to have a commodity bull market it seems to me anyway so i own the commodities and i plan to buy more they're not going to stop printing money when the when we start having corrections in the markets the central banks are going to panic and print even more money and we may have one last blow-off in the stock market but and i do own some shares i haven't started selling short yet but after that blow off i'm afraid we're going to have a horrible bear market roger we've had markets throughout history we've always had them we'll have them again and this bull market in america has been going on the longest in american history it's 13 years now doesn't mean it can't go on 30 years but it already is the longest stocks are getting high inflation's coming back interest rates are coming so we're going to have a bear market again and roger is going to be the worst in my lifetime 2009 8 and 9 we had a bear market because of too much debt roger since then the debt has skyrocketed everywhere in the world gigantic amounts so the next bear market has to be a bad bear market we've had them throughout history they're going to continue whether we like it or not and then next was going to be very bad would you say that that what was taking place uh what was taking place after the global financial crisis which which was largely papered over through all the money printing that took place since then that with the with the next bear market coming and the fact that that the governments are running out of uh running out of ammunition as to what they can throw at this um we're gonna see uh casualties uh
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