저자: GeorgeTillis및KevinGreen · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 발표 전 애프터마켓 분석. 데이터센터 매출 356억 달러로 컨센서스(341억) 상회, 전년 대비 약 93% 성장. 다음 분기 매출 가이던스 430억 달러 내외로 기대치 부합 또는 상회. 매출총이익률 가이던스(71.5~75%)가 컨센서스(72%)보다 낮아 마진 압박 우려. 옵션 시장 예상 변동폭은 ±10~11.5달러(120~140 범위). 딥시크 리스크는 현 실적에 반영되기 이르다는 입장이며, 컨퍼런스콜에서 수출규제 관련 리스크가 하방 요인일 수 있다는 의견 존재.
다듬은 글
all right we got a little bit of pressure in the aftermarket on Salesforce earnings which did disappoint in the Outlook but the cloud story should be a little distinct from the hardware story as Nvidia will be the highlight this afternoon George Tillis joining me alongside Kevin green as the numbers um getting ready to come out kg talking me about the expected move here I think for options Traders that's kind of the first and foremost thing as we were looking at the chart earlier kind of in the middle of this range that's been in between 12 and 140 yeah definitely the expected move is sitting between let's say $10 and $11.50 kind of just depends on when you're pricing out the options now there is actually a little bit of a callide skew uh for this print and rightfully so that's something that's not outside of the norm when you're kind of looking at Nvidia earnings over the last you know year year and a half or so but we are right there in that range so 140 to the upside you're looking at around 120 to the downside here and any type of break between those levels either higher or lower probably will create actually a pretty decent little squeeze or even a meltdown uh when it comes to the stock here now we have seen in the past where the market has not been as reactive uh to the earnings announcement for NVIDIA and so we it would not be outside of the norm for us to actually see the stock trading within that range which once again those Market maker moves is trying to price out at least one standard deviation move so 66% of the time it's trying to price out that it's going to stay between 140 and 120 I think that that uh um is kind of a fun setup because you could get a sizable move you can meet that market maker move uh in either direction and still be within at least what I have on my chart as the major volume areas 120 and 140 think the numbers are coming out right now Nvidia ticking up to about 133 in the aftermarket so uh let's look at that chart wow I get the numbers for you uh by the way uh obviously we rallied already on the session so Nvidia adding on more is a pretty good sign data center Revenue came in at $ 35.6 billion versus 34.1 that's the first big red headline there that's a good thing uh nice beat the first quarter Revenue Outlook does exceed the expectations of 42.3 billion at 43 billion plus or minus 2% so if they do swing that 2% to the downside then uh they would miss a little bit but uh it's uh pretty much uh solid uh next quarter adjusted gross margin 7.5 to 71.5 Street was looking closer to 72 so maybe a little bit of disappointment there on the next quarter outlook for uh gross margins um in terms of by the way just uh revenue on the trailing basis uh they did they did beat uh 39.3 billion Street was looking for 38.2 so about a billion doll beat uh is a perfectly fine number George do you think gross margins missing expectations that's the only thing I see so far that would be a definitive Miss George is that a big deal for them right now or should they be just concentrating on pushing out as much as possible and worry about margin later so I'm I suggest it's the latter I think that's more important I think more product is is key for NVIDIA obviously the gross margins which you know are relatively high for a hardware company at 76 or so percent these are based on the trailing numbers and net income margins of 56% uh at some point in time those will break and I think maybe we're starting to see the the breakage if that's even a correct way of phrasing it of the of the profitability of the business uh so it comes down to volume and that's essentially the inflection point uh investors will have to contend with with Nvidia because pricing power has been key to generate these these enormous you know rate of changes in in Top Line Sales in EPS so you know overall we have to contend with that I think the market is trying to digest that for for lack of a a better way of expressing it at least in the after hours but I think volume is is going to be key going forward the other thing is at least myself I'll be looking for more in more um more information about their platform as a service and effectively their Omniverse software offerings uh because we have to consider that the replacement rate for gpus will eventually decelerate and they can certainly make up for that with um with software yeah with their maintenance and software uh services and um kg what do you think about this number you know it'll be one thing maybe if we were I don't know 10 20 bucks higher in Nvidia but uh should this be enough to hold on to the 130 uh yeah I think it is for now and we have the conference call too right so everybody in their mother uh that loves this stock is going to be on that conference call and it's more likely that it's going to be bullish than bearish for uh the Market Jensen long does a phenomenal job with trying to project out into the future look is there going to be margin concerns I don't think that should be a question for anybody that's been in a hardware cycle just in general right now you have to do you do have to get the volume that is out there uh in the q1 guide for the most part I would say probably is in line with expectations and I think the street was also expecting that as well a$2 billion doll beat when it comes to the guidance that's something that's been in trend for the stock for a very long time and that's the bar that has been set we're still trading at around $132 right now I think the Market's going to wait for the conference call um but the the numbers overall look good where they need to and the data center side of the equation actually looks pretty decent yes you had a little bit of weakness in margin for the current quarter uh but I think that's also going to be expected as you have more competition and then also their own refresh cycle Oliver this is the quickest that they've ever seen when it comes to a refresh cycle in the GPU space and so it's not out of the norm that they might be canalizing their business just a tad bit and I think that's also probably being reflected in the margins well nobody's buying gaming chips except for me I guess I got I got updated in mine a couple weeks ago but that uh source of Revenue is declining like 14% but it's only a couple billion uh the almost a doubling of data center revenues to 36 billion from a year ago it's just hard to spin anything negative fundamentally when there's that type of growth George um because uh 93% growth in data center revenue is to 35.6 billion obviously that's how we got to this $39 billion uh business for NVIDIA uh which is climbing at an 80% uh rate and it's just it's not an expensive stock when you consider that growth that's where it really um still seems to argue as being a uh functioning healthy pillar for the market now of course we never know uh obviously but right now this thing is pinned exactly where it closed and that seems kind of fair I so I mean look what's Happening Here I suggest is not a bad thing for NVIDIA once they come out with new technologies and this is the case for any any hardware or technology company or any production uh of any sort for that matter is is that the scalability needs to be reset particular on the new generation artificial intelligence gpus so margin compression should be should be expected uh going forward the other thing is is I think the the demand elasticity aspect of their products uh it's becoming more elastic there's more substitutes you know I'm not saying AMD is there they're not there yet huwei in China so essentially pricing power will eventually erode for NVIDIA but they need to make up for volume and they may not necessarily had the volume that the market has demanded over the past you know six quarters just because they can't keep up uh so now it s I suggest that things are turning meaning that volumes will increase pricing power will accelerate margin compression will be uh something to expect and it's not a bad thing but they'll make up for it in higher sales units and so uh that pivot point you know I think maybe this quarter it may be happening but you know in the context of the market itself as well as the expectations it's still still uncertain and that's just the way I interpret what's happening in the after hours I mean this is a it's enormous stock uh and it's doing pretty much nothing right now as everyone's trying to digest the outcome uh well I guess um all the options uh trades betting on a big move are getting Stamped Out uh you kind of whispered to me off air kg that you were leaning towards maybe a muted move um I was kind of thinking bigger but I ad midly kind of have a macro bias to kind of everything and I feel like the stock market itself uh is kind of in a period of regime change which begs for a larger move Nvidia doesn't necessarily have to and I would say that when you have as good of growth numbers as they are putting up here and really know here's here's what's important too remember that um The Narrative around deep seek was going to be that orders would get uh delayed or rather cancelled or that people wouldn't need as many chips I mean the 80% growth rate that we just got is very much like on the trajectory that was already laid out for them to slow down in terms of sales because we were doing like 300% a couple quarters ago so it doesn't really seem like that uh deep- seek narrative is terribly bearish so in terms of the market eyes I would kind of think that the onus is on Bears to try and prove that there's a bear case here where at you know this is still the main bull case for markets and the numbers look pretty good yeah so you you touched on a couple of things there so let me try to go through each of them the first one is uh seeing any type of reaction for from Deep seek within this report I think is too early yeah way too early look we already know what the Caps uh is gonna uh no it won't because the thing is they nid only guides a quarter ahead and so if when they're locking these orders in they're locking out nine months 12 months in advance right we won't see anything that's residual from Deep seek or any type of that development probably for another two or three quarters um you know a company's not going to make that drastic of a move based on a news report and something that has not been fully substantiated and it's somewhat questionable and so and and the demand is is still Rising you still have the mega cap names are still buying and no one even talks about the Sovereign uh uh funds that are trying to get access to this right the countries themselves the Saudi Arabia is of the world um that's still kind of in the backlog for NVIDIA right now so there should have been no expectation that deep seek would would have shown up here to in this quarter in their guide for next quarter and when they report next quarter it shouldn't also uh show up in their guidance either it's going to be two three quarters down the road where you're going to see that type of impact that's going to be one thing two we still have the conference call so let's go they don't provide a lot of information when it comes to their earnings release right Jensen long is not going to talk about a potential product roll out in an earnings released he'll talk about that on a conference call and I think that's where you're going to get a lot of the fireworks and here's the reason why right optimism when it comes to demand are you seeing any type of demand falling off is Blackwell having some issues when it comes to production this report and the guidance says no uh what are you going to do if you have substantial sanctions or tariffs put on your products going into China in the age 20s that is actually going to be a really big question because if there is any type of fear that any further China exposure is going to be cut off and potentially scrutiny on the Singapore sales which uh you know some people say that is a little bit questionable that could actually drag the stock down so I think there's probably more of a risk to the downside based on the answers from executive leadership in the conference call then probably a rise to the upside but traditionally we do see a rise I just yeah we gota wait a lot more information that we need totally and I think that the tone uh to your point about the timing of impact uh of deep seek if anything that might show up in the tone of the conversation on the Outlook not so much the numbers so we'll see how uh Jensen does but he is usually not one to shy away from very encouraging statements so uh I don't think any of this suggests uh in the earnings that he would be uh remiss of that usual positive buoyant attitude what do you think George I don't think yeah I don't think the Deep seek will even be brought up maybe maybe some someone else will ask questions about don't think it'll be an issue yeah I don't think it'll be an issue honestly I think that we everyone should expect that you know we are essentially seeing an earnings plateau uh in terms of the rate of change we saw in the last six quarters that's going to be something you have to get used to I think it comes down to now is is how can they integrate more software and their Omni Omniverse cloud services alongside their Technologies and that's really I think going to be key for sustainable Topline sales and and earnings going forward so you know I think you know valuation still looks very compelling uh I just think that you have to be realistic and and look for normalized Trend growth not necessarily this parabolic trend growth that we've seen over the last six quarters okay all right good stuff uh appreciate the analysis guys
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