저자: GarethSolway · 외국인
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S&P500은 12월 고점 돌파 실패로 약한 돌파 시도이며 기관 매도 압력과 경제지표 악화로 10% 조정 가능성 제기. 고베타 모멘텀주 급락과 알트코인·비트코인 약세를 위험회피 신호로 해석. 엔비디아는 실적 전 소폭 하락 편향(목표 119, 딥시크·MS 데이터센터 임대 취소 우려). 세일즈포스는 방향성 없음, 281 지지/381 저항 구간 매매. 카바는 100달러 갭 메우기 후 실적 긍정 기대하며 하락 시 매수 선호. 비트코인은 92,000 이탈 시 74~75,000 하락 가능성, 장기 강세 견해 유지하나 단기 조정 후 진입 권고.
다듬은 글
welcome back to Market on close I'm Caroline woods and for Oliver renck let's get some technical analysis of this week's big earnings names and welcome in Gareth Solway Chief Market strategist at verifying investing Gareth great to see you thanks so much for joining us oh thanks for having me great to see you as well thank you all right before we get to some of these big names on to this week I want to get your technical take on on the overall Market the S&P 500 going a whole lot of nowhere right now not continuing Friday's selloff but also not necessarily charging ahead what do you make of it yeah so I think it's very interesting to see that it does appear that the buyers are starting to meet resistance and I do think that's more institutional resistance starting to recognize the economic data is starting to turn South here so again whether it's fears of tariffs or Michigan sentiment lots of different factors starting to put pressure on the sell side and I still think the individual investors buying the dip but they're just getting met with more and more Sellers and we can see that even from December I mean basically we pierced the December highs on the S&P but we've barely gotten above them and now we're back below them and that shows to me a weak attempt at a breakout that ultimately could head back lower and actually start to see a major selloff so I'd be very very kind of conservative here in the near term until we see a defined breakout above those December highs okay and how steep of a selloff are you talking about I'm serious I can't remember what word you just said yeah so so I I think the key is going to be how fast it declines like so I'm looking at the market today and I see names that were High Flyers like Robin Hood 25% off of its highs of just two weeks ago uh other names like paler paler down again today 30% off of its highs of just a couple weeks ago and to me those are the momentum names that were carrying this Market ever since Nvidia kind of stopped carrying the market and if those are losing the momentum or the kind of the the excitement of investors it to me says a bigger sell-off could be on the horizon and I'm even watching crypto altcoins are really struggling and bitcoin's beginning to come down and these are all signals of risk off so in terms of downside we could be looking at one of those elusive 10% Corrections in the not too distant future okay all right well you mentioned Nvidia uh meeting some resistance today but actually up about 10 a half% this month heading into Wednesday's report that being said uh you know it is negative on the year year to date right now so I does that mean expectations aren't Skyhigh for NVIDIA heading into this report seeing is it's not a high flyer yet this year so yes you're right margins are key here on Nvidia earnings and then also forward guidance expectations are probably the lowest they have been in a while but I will say that you know based on what we're seeing on the charts and I'm a technician so I'm looking at probabilities and chart levels there is still a slight negative bias not like historically where we've seen much greater um levels but you can see on that chart there that you would favor that first resistance which we've pulled off of and that one 19 19 support if we did break that upper level of support around 143 157 would be your next major resistance but again the bias here based on all the factors I'm looking at give it a slight negative bias on earnings with a downside short-term Target of 19 so a negative bias could mean 119 following this report or heading into the report following the report so you would expect that to be the sell on the report and then buyers would start to try to support the stock right around 119 if 119 gives way then we have a lot bigger problems in the AI uh industry and in a lot of these stocks but 119 would be where the stock would come down to buyers would be expected to come in for major support and keep the stock propped up around that level what is the the real outlier in terms of the negative news that could send Nvidia shares lower do you think it's any maybe uh talk about deep seek and and the impact there or I mean I do think yeah you're you're absolutely right on that and I apologize but so so deep seek is going to be something that we're going to look for Jensen hang to talk about and say okay is this going to reduce the spend of a lot of these players and I think something that's flowing under the radar is what Microsoft said today which was that they were cancelling leases on a lot of data centers in other words have a lot of these big players potential customers of Nvidia are they SP starting to think that they've overbought from Nvidia maybe they've doubled and tripled orders they they' they were expecting to build out so many data centers and now they're saying wait a minute with deep seek maybe we don't have to do all of this and could that be something now I will say this caveat is that Jensen hang is he's notorious for giving the rosiest pictures so he will try to sugarcoat everything but I think investors are smart enough to kind of delve into the details and the numbers and we'll come away with something but that's the real risk here is that maybe customers have bought too much and they're starting to pull back okay all right so negative bias on Nvidia heading into the report seeing some of that weakness play out today Salesforce meanwhile is basically flat today but uh even worse of a chart so far in 2025 down about seven and change percent um year today down 9% this month heading into the report so what are you looking for from Salesforce and then we can get into the chart yeah so from Salesforce I think you're watching to see what their their growth and guidance is so the Market's expecting a solid number even a little bit of a beat on earning but really always remember as investors out there listening we have to remember that the markets are pricing in the whisper number The Whisper number again is for a small beat on earnings so for the stock to Rally higher they not only have to beat the whisper number but then actually give guidance that's showing strong continued growth I think again if you look at this stock from 2023 when it was trading around $130 it is now even at the pullback level like you mentioned it's still north of $300 so there is potential here for some downside support and looking at the chart we're looking at around $281 as major support again currently trading at 310 so you're looking at about a 10% decline on earnings into major support and then on the other side if by chance they can come out Gang Busters there's not major resistance until you get up to about $381 so potentially risk reward wise the reward would actually be on the long side even though I do still think there's some risk that it does come in and underwhelms as we've seen so many companies do okay is there a bias like there is for NVIDIA though just based on the chart yeah so in in terms of this one I've studied it left and right in every which way and I have no good inkling on the directional move so for me anytime it's between like 50 55% 45% what it tells me as a technical Trader is to just sit on the sidelines and look to trade the result right so the best trades I get sometimes are just sitting on the sidelines because we know that earnings can be a wild card it can be like they can just say one thing in the conference call and it rips higher allaha Celsius last week where initially the stock traded down and then they say hey we're going to buy out this company we're going to grow again and all of a sudden the stock goes up 50% almost on the day so with with sales force it's no bias but then look to trade these Levels by at 281 and short at 381 okay meanwhile Cava Shar is under a lot of pressure uh this month down about 23% I didn't even realize the move in Cava in February down about 23% this month still up over 100% over the past one year uh what are your expectations uh for that report tomorrow afternoon yeah so they I expect a good report from these guys I think again the stock having come back in on the last earnings report the stock gapped up to $172 and it's now trading basically at $100 so again a big drop from the last earnings Gap up and reversal down to this $100 even number I love even numbers in technical trading because there are levels where people put stops so the fact that it pierced 100 today it means a lot of stops got taken out on on on buyers which means again the bias to me flips back to the upside and you could see the Gap fill right there at 100 as well and so I'd actually be looking I'm I'm a bullish bullish into earnings on Cava I think they're going to give a good report and I think it's just sold off so much here that expectations the bar has been lowered where we can actually see a good report actually push the stock up solidly so shares down 32% today as I said down 20 plus% this month would you be a buyer on today's weakness ahead of earnings I would be it filled the Gap today Gap fills in technical trading are great levels again a major Gap here at 100 the even number uh I'm a buyer into earnings uh going into the next couple days okay also want to ask you about Bitcoin which you mentioned is also coming off today now trading below 94,000 it's interesting or actually no back above 94,000 around $94,400 but still uh quite a bit off the the earlier all-time highs I had two guests on trading 360 earlier today who both had $200,000 price targets for Bitcoin by year end does the chart imply uh that to you what specific levels are you looking at on the chart for Bitcoin yeah so bitcoin's been in this sideways consolidation phase and usually sideways consolidation is can be bullish right but the problem is it's waiting for that next breakout so we have a 108,000 high that's that top dotted line across your chart right there that's short-term major resistance and then we have 92,000 below that where we're now hammering on currently and for me it's looking at the chart and just saying Hey listen we have a risk-off environment looking like it's starting to take hold the S&P is barely off its all-time highs as bitcoin's about 15% off of its all-time high so we're seeing that underperformance we've just come through a period where Donald Trump really drove in the excitement in crypto but now you're in this void period where there's no new major catalysts and to add to that micro strategies has been buying billions and billions of dollars of Bitcoin and it's not pushing price up to me that's a signal that's a concern and so for me if you break 92,000 to the downside there's actually an air pocket down to about 74 to 75,000 and I'd actually be worried about that first I think we actually hit 74 to 75,000 first before we make that next move up I'm a huge long-term Bull on bitcoin but I do believe in charts and charts having precedence and they will likely push us below 92 down to 74 to 75 before we get that next Bull move to the upside well Scott B of Prosper Trading Academy would certainly uh like to hear that because I know that's the level he's been waiting to buy to get in uh so you would wait to 74 to to get maybe further in before uh before investing any more money in Bitcoin yeah I would I would and again I think I think the key is here also is that there's a lot of Bitcoin investors who are just focused on bitcoin but bitcoin's not in its own bubble it's very much reactive to the NASDAQ and to the S&P so if you told me S&P was going to be up 10% in the next couple months okay I think bitcoin's at new all-time highs I don't believe that's going to happen I think the bit the S&P and the NASDAQ are on the verge of a pullback and I think that will bring Bitcoin down to that 74 75,000 level which will give a lot of us a nice entry on a pullback and honestly wishing Michael sailor would see this and because I think he could get a lot big bang for the buck with all the billions he's putting in if he waited just a little bit of time here I don't know the biggest Bitcoin bull there Gareth Solway appreciate the technical breakdown thank you so much
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