저자: ElisaCoram/EdieCarson · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 강하게 반등했지만 하락분의 절반 정도만 회복했고, 주간·월간 손실이 커 아직 추세 전환은 확인되지 않았다. 지수 흐름: 나스닥 약 +2.2%, S&P500 약 +1.4%, 다우 약 +1%로 반등했으나 수요일 대비 손실의 약 절반만 회복. 주요 지수가 지지선을 깨고 급락했던 직후라 본격적 상승 확인에는 추가 상승이 필요하다고 봄. 나스닥은 여전히 200일선 아래. 테슬라: 분기 실적에서 깜짝 흑자와 매출 129% 성장으로 주가 약 5% 상승. 다만 차트는 200일선 저항에서 손상이 크고 주가 흐름이 오래 불안정. 자금 조달 이후 랠리와 실적 지속성·추가 자본 조달 필요성 등은 여전히 논쟁 중이라고 봄. 마이크로소프트: 실적 가속(이익 +36%, 매출 +19%, 클라우드 성장) 속에 주가 약 6% 상승. 50일선 아래지만 S&P500 대비 상대강도는 신고가로, 시장 회복 시 주도주가 될 수 있다고 평가. 다만 시장 여건과 추세 돌파 전까지는 매수 기회로 보지 않음(중립적 관망). AMD: 실적은 예상치 부합했으나 매출과 4분기 가이던스가 약해 주가 약 13% 급락. 200일선 위에서 지지 시도 중이나 수주간 매도세와 이전부터 나온 매도 신호를 근거로 부정적 시각. 아마존: 실적 발표 예정, 주가 약 4% 상승, 매출 +31%·이익 +500% 전망. 클라우드·광고 성장 기대. 200일선 지지 여부를 보며 성장 지속성 확인 필요. 구글(알파벳)도 당일 실적 발표 예정으로 언급. 출연자 전망: 시장은 아직 조정 국면으로 보며 성장주 전반이 함께 밀리는 흐름을 경계. 강한 실적이 나와도 시장 여건이 개선되어야 한다는 신중론.
다듬은 글
Good morning from Los Angeles. It's Thursday, and I'm Elisa Coram, here with Edie Carson. On today's show we have your market update. We're looking at three stocks moving on their quarterly earnings reports: Tesla, Microsoft, and AMD. We're also previewing results for Amazon, which reports after the close.
Taking a look at the major indexes, we're rebounding today. The Nasdaq is up about 2.2%, the S&P 500 is up 1.4%, and the Dow is up a little over 1%. Even though we're seeing a strong rebound, we still haven't recouped all of Wednesday's losses. We've gained back about half of them, so it's like a dropped ball bouncing back about halfway. That's about where we are so far, and the losses for the week and the month are much bigger. If this ends up being just one day, we won't even remember it, even though the gains are nice right now. It's encouraging, but yesterday's sell-off was really sharp. The major averages broke through support, and more and more stocks crashed through too. So this is nice, but the day isn't done and the week isn't done. We need to see a lot more gains like this.
That's right. We're in the thick of earnings season, so maybe that will help decide which direction we go. For now, we're still well below the 200-day line on the Nasdaq. Absolutely. I just sounded like Yoda there.
Let's look at Tesla. It's moving up today but hitting resistance at the key 200-day line. Shares are up about 5% on heavy volume after the quarterly report, which showed a surprise profit and revenue growth of 129%, released late Wednesday. But the chart is still severely damaged, and the stock has had trouble for quite a while.
It's interesting. The stock surged when the funding was secured, but even before that it had been a mess. It's had a nice run this week, but keep in mind that some of this rally is ahead of the earnings. Investors are still going to be concerned. Can they sustain this profitability? Will they need to raise more capital? Will capital spending and the production ramp for the new Model Y and the Tesla Semi weigh on them? Analysts and investors are still debating those questions. On the face of it, the numbers were really strong, and the company said it was going to become profitable, and it posted a pretty strong profit.
Microsoft shares are up over 6% right now, after a trip to its 200-day line in Wednesday's session. Growth is accelerating on both the top and bottom lines. Earnings rose 36% while revenue was up 19%, fueled by strong cloud computing gains. The results look really nice, and a key technical metric for Microsoft is looking good as well.
Microsoft is still below its 50-day line, so it's not like it's poised to hit a new high. But the blue line on the chart is the relative strength line, which compares the stock to the S&P 500, and Microsoft is actually hitting a new high on it. In some ways that's a measure of how bad the market is, but it tells you that when the market turns around, Microsoft could be one of the leaders. When earnings are accelerating, sales growth is accelerating, and the stock is hitting new highs relative to the S&P 500, that's very bullish. The turnaround over the last few years has been pretty impressive for a company this big.
Even with this big bounce and the strong result, we don't have the market conditions that warrant extreme caution yet. I want to see not only better market conditions but also stocks breaking out of proper bases. So for me it's not quite a buying opportunity yet. It hasn't even really broken its little downtrend. But it's one of the best-performing stocks out there.
Let's check in with AMD, which is down about 13% on heavy volume after its earnings report. Earnings met expectations, but sales and fourth-quarter revenue guidance were weak. The stock is off its intraday low, though, and holding above the 200-day line.
It's not a great look, but the stock has been selling off for the past few weeks. It has wiped out a lot of the gains from the July portion of the Q2 report. There was a big run-up before that, partly because of the next-generation chips, and Intel had some problems. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out. But this stock was showing a lot of negative signs before these earnings. Even though it's off its lows, it was screaming sell signals. AMD also has a history of brief runs followed by big collapses. It has never really had a sustained run. Maybe this will be the change, but it doesn't seem like it.
That big gap down is further damage for AMD, and Intel is reporting tonight too.
Amazon issues its quarterly report tonight, and the stock is trying to find support above the 200-day line. Heading into the report, the stock is up over 4%. Analysts expect revenue to rise 31% and earnings to grow over 500%. Could we see another strong quarter from the e-commerce giant, which now has its hands in so many other areas, from Web Services to advertising, which is becoming a bigger deal for the stock?
It's a nice rebound, and mutual funds seem to be stepping in. It's bouncing up from the 200-day line. We'll have to see the earnings growth and the holiday quarter coming up, because that's going to be a big deal. Amazon was a real leader, but it has sold off in recent weeks, and that's hitting many growth stocks. Basically everything has been falling. If a market correction happens, it's a great company with a great stock, but it almost doesn't matter, because everything is going to fall.
That's right. We'll also get results from fellow FANG stock Google tonight. Make sure you head to Investors.com throughout the trading day and after the close for the latest market news and analysis. You can also check us out on social media: Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and Instagram. Thanks for joining us, and we'll see you right back here tomorrow.
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