저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Yardeni는 2020년대를 생산성 호황기로 보며 AI 수혜는 하이퍼스케일러보다 AI를 활용하는 산업에 돌아갈 것이라 주장한다. S&P500은 이익 주도 장세로 2026년 말 약 7,700(현재 약 7,000 대비 약 10% 상승), 2029년 말 10,000 가능성을 제시한다. 생산성 성장률이 평균 2%에서 3%로 오르면 큰 의미가 있다고 본다. 빅테크는 자본지출 확대로 이익 성장이 둔화될 것이라며 Magnificent 7 비중을 언더웨이트로 전환했고, IT·커뮤니케이션 서비스는 오버웨이트에서 마켓웨이트로 낮췄다. 반면 금융·산업재·헬스케어(특히 바이오)는 오버웨이트를 권고한다. 반도체 기업은 여전히 성과가 좋을 것이라 언급했다.
다듬은 글
Veteran market bull Ed Yardeni is broadening his view on the market heading into 2026. After years of backing big tech, Yardenni is reshuffling the deck as AI spending and valuations collide. He explains why he's pivoting away from the Magnificent 7 and the companies building AI to focus on the industries using it to win.
You've long touted the 2020s as the new roaring 20s for economic and productivity growth. Is that still your perspective right now? Even even more so because if the real winners of uh of AI are the users of AI, the users are you that are getting productivity uh by by using these technologies and and because of competition they don't have to pay that much for the hardware and and the the software then that would uh boost productivity and that would boost real GDP, keep inflation down and uh continue to fuel the the roar roaring 2020s.
What I don't want to see happen is I don't want to see the kind of speculative excesses of the 1920s that led to the uh the crash and uh so I'm I I am actually encouraged by the fact that there's so much nervousness about a bubble because that that reduces the likelihood of it and as I said it kind of takes some air out of it.
I think it'll be good for the economy and good for the for the market. Where do you see the S&P 500 landing by the end of 2026? And what's the biggest swing factor behind that? I mean, I know valuation levels are high, but they've been high for a while. I think to a large extent, this is in fact been an earningsled market.
And I think it continues to be an earningsled market. And I think earnings uh at the current valuation levels of about 20 to 22, I think earnings could get the S&P 500 up to 7,700 uh by the end of 2026. We're around 7,000 now. So that would give us a 10% increase in the S&P 500 by the end of the decade, by the end of what I think will turn out to be the roaring 2020s.
Um, I could see the S&P 500 at 10,000 and that would be at the end of 2029 and productivity would be a big part of that story. And how much real productivity does the market need to see in 2026 to justify current AIdriven valuations? That's a good question. Um, you know, there's no science about it, but I would say that the the average growth rate of productivity since the data was collected in the late 1940s is 2% per year.
I think that if we can get just 3% per year, that would be a big deal because uh productivity plus the growth rate in the labor force is what gives us the growth rate of the economy. And you've said that there's no way these companies can really know if their AI spending will pay off. How much uncertainty can the market really absorb before it starts behaving like a bubble?
Well, that's why just last week I said it's time to underweight the Magnificent 7 because uh until now there was almost no uncertainty about how magnificent these companies were. Uh now there's nothing but uncertainty, you know, and particularly in terms of if they continue to commit this kind of capital spending, uh who knows what kind of return they're going to going to get on it.
they may not get much of of any return. Uh at any rate, it certainly looks like the growth rate of their earnings is going to slow because they are spending a lot more on on capital. They they they used to be companies that didn't have to spend much on capital and didn't have to spend much on labor.
They uh were very uh light in in resources and and really great in generating earnings. uh now not only they're spending a lot of money on expanding their data centers uh but they're paying a fortune to get talent um and that's that's going to all squeeze their profitability. And to wrap things up here, what parts of the market do you expect to outperform in 2026 as AI adoption spreads beyond big tech?
I would say AI uh hyperscalers, the Magnificent 7 have had a great run here. they they tended to be fairly closely correlated. Now there's we're seeing some dispersion where some stocks yes a few of this seven are doing well a few aren't doing well and that could continue to be a dance that continues with the magnificent seven.
I think it's the users of their services that uh in AI and other areas that will increase their productivity. So I would uh see the market broadening to the S&P 493 and uh altogether I would continue to overweight while I I recommend now in terms of information technology and communication services uh I've lowered my recommendations from overweight to market weight.
I'm not underweing the way I am Magnificent 7 because there's plenty of semiconductor companies that are still going to do very well for example. Um uh but I do think that uh financials industrials and now healthcare which I I have been recommending overweighting financials industrials I'm just saying whatever money you're taking out of uh information technology and communications put some more in financials put some more in industrials in a sector that uh I haven't had much uh interest in healthc care is one that I would overweight particularly in the biology area
still believes the 2020s can be a productivity boom, but says the next leg of the market looks broader and more earnings driven. His message for 2026 is simple. Less concentration, more discipline, and a market that rewards who actually puts AI to work. For investors Business Daily, I'm Clara Okconor.
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