저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
2008년 금융위기 이후 중소형주 3종목이 100배 올랐던 경험을 근거로, 현재 지수는 횡보하거나 조정할 수 있으나 종목별 기회는 있다고 봄. 2021~24년 과열 조정이 진행 중이며 인도 인프라·금속·관광 섹터의 기회를 언급. 헬스케어는 고평가로 보고 하락 시 매수를 권함. 중국 ETF는 50~70% 상승 후 보유 중이며 추가 매수는 안 한다고 함. 인도 PSU 은행은 저평가로 봄.
다듬은 글
I am telling you because I remember in 2008 after this Lehman Brothers financial crisis happened market where sideways between 2009 and 2014 index wise market did not index did not show new high I think before 14 something if I remember correctly but during that time also there were so many mid caps even luckily my three stocks went up 100 times between 2008 and after 2008 crisis between 2009 and 2014 they went up by 100 times so that gave me this you know courage and this is what the same formula I am applying now also maybe this index wise this market would consolidate but you will you will certainly get some opportunities in this market which is going to give you very handsome return but the idea is this to identify the same stock at right stock at right time that is what our homework should be of that level So basically you are saying wait for another covid or 2008 like crisis No no crisis has already come now this is the crisis only no crisis we have seen you see in 10 years only you will see one crisis only no no don't expect this
not at all I don't want any crisis either Yeah yeah so that crisis we have seen now we are seeing the correction of that that uh exuberance exuberance which happened between 2021 and 24 so maybe after 2000 in 26 you will find some level playing field kind of things will happen in this market I don't think this market is going to crash further from here this is what I feel as of now So where to hunt then where to hunt because there are a lot of pockets which are looking cheap but there are lots which haven't fallen at all also So that is why I tell you this is not a easy process as I said that you have to be you have to identify the right script should be available at right price so that is not a easy easy thing that is an ongoing process and world has become also dynamic like you were talking about this IT sectors and all I was seeing that if I remember correctly in last 15 years people has not given you any any kind of return this is what is happening to IT then and it is having a large market share in in our market cap cap Infosys all these IT companies are having a major share so and they are not performing that way so this is it's not a difficult it's it's not a so easy thing it's a difficult thing but you have to everything is difficult in life you know You make it easy with songs
No depend yeah I'm trying to because you could not get there what I got it or getting on the bus So we can get it and start getting it To current state may patients get me to say to describe your state of mind right now what is that song No in activities also an activity not necessary that you have every day you have to really say tell me what they got So what So that's what I'm saying it's not necessary that every time you have to be active in this market if you don't find any any idea but protect your money don't lose this money on your every trade or every investment alone you can have your money in the bank for the timing whenever you get right opportunity that that time you strike But you know Vijay it's easy for people like you who have seen two bear cycles and then massive bull markets as well but for most of the investors who have come in at the covid lows they've not seen a bear market just yet very very difficult for them to be patient in this market So this is a lesson for them that is what I'm saying any school any college or any exam cannot or any course cannot teach all these newcomers that how to behave in this market so everybody has come and everybody wants to become a crorepati overnight that is the real problem so now this what is whatever happening in 2025 and 26 or whatever is happening it is actually it is going to teach them a very good lesson this market always doesn't go one side there has to be a correction and reaction and action all these things happens a part and parcel of of this market so I think that would actually that would build their character that would build their personality to be in this market for next 20 30 years so I think this lesson was very important which they are going to learn if they learn from this lesson then it is a good thing for them and otherwise Joe Apple head it So what opportunities are smiling in this market right now Is it currently I feel opportunities are not right I could not get both a plenty of both the opportunities I think again I I think that one has to be very selective so if you let me tell you that like suppose if India has to become a 10 trillion dollar economy by 2030 32 or whatever it is now 10 10% GDP growth we are predicting projecting so maybe in 7 years we will double so maybe in 7 10 years we will 10 12 dollar or whatever it is so I think without like infrastructure you cannot imagine 10 trillion dollar economy so I think and those also find sectors which has already you know reacted they are infrastructure stocks as I said it it has already they have already two thirds of value has gone now now they are available at a one third or maybe 30 40% of of their peak so I think it it could be a good opportunity in these sectors metals also ultimately this metal whatever happened in this metal and now they are correcting but I think maybe next 10 years should be good for this metal stocks also so similarly tourism also government is also focusing on tourism I think tourism is also a job creator tourism should also do well so there are some pockets which are going to do well I understand infrastructure but again your way would not be via L&T right I'm sure there are small and mid cap companies you're looking at any niche businesses within infra Yeah of course because I always invest in a small companies not L&T and all these things and all so there are many companies you will find out which are doing something in water we are doing something some EPC into power and all because as everybody is talking without power now again you cannot imagine even China has actually I read somewhere that China is advising USA to increase its power production China is advising people don't teach us you just increase your power otherwise you're going to have a problem because of all these whatever this data center all this demand is going to come so huge demand is going to come so they are teaching USA so I think same thing applicable to us also so any company which are catering to all this business of power and water and all this infrastructure should be invested What else is looking good I think I like like hospital business I like I have invested in hospital company I like hospital business because there is in India we have a young population also and as well as the same time don't ask the name
You are taking my because so India is now a unique situation we are a young country also as well as we are in aging population also so I think the demand for hospital is going to be there for next 10 15 years stocks are very expensive so one I was basically lifting the mic to say that Yeah that health care as a sector is priced to perfection and valuations have gone off
So wait for pray to God that suppose if something happens and all this now they have reacted 20% from peak 20 30% they have reacted from come off from their peak but still they are expensive so you have to keep a watch if market reacts and if you get something cheaper then you can invest otherwise keep money in liquid fund But you know Vijay the problem is and that's the same with the other sectors also that you said tourism and hospitality definition of cheap is now very different than what it was 5 years back
Yeah so I will tell you that is that is the you know market is very unique I will tell you another cheap sectors but you will you are not going to invest in those companies like PSU banks and all so I'm bullish on PSU banks but nobody is going to invest they are available at 5 6 7 12 13% credit growth rate dividend yield also 3 4% but you won't like it because you want fun You means people like all these young people are coming to the market they want fun they want some excitement so better to have a instead of investing in this cheapest stock that will give you fun that will give you excitement that will give you hangover
[gasps] Okay so other than the sectors the one call that you really got right Vijay and I still remember what 2 years back China your investment in China do you still have that and are you still bullish on your China return Yeah yeah yeah yeah I said China I am a patriot okay China is close to my heart let me tell you business wise okay so anyhow so I know this much only in Chinese so I am a fan of China from business perspective let me tell you I am really a big fan of China I think China is the first wonder of 21st century what China has done every country should learn from China, including India, including USA, including Korea, Taiwan, or whatever.
So, I have invested in ETF, which is listed at exchanges, and I'm still holding. Of course, I am holding. I don't want to increase more because already gone up by 50, 60, 70% from their low. So, but I am very Yes, I am upbeat on China. [clears throat] Okay, on that note, Vijay Kedia, always a pleasure having you on the show. Keep smiling, and may your portfolio always do.
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