저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
주식 투자 성공의 핵심은 지식·확신·인내이며, 집중 포트폴리오(8~10종목)가 수익을 키운다고 강조. 멀티배거는 드물어 1% 미만이라 집중투자와 장기 보유가 필요. 시장은 섹터 로테이션으로 움직이며 한 섹터가 오르면 다른 섹터는 부진할 수 있음. 리스크는 예측 불가능한 충격(2018 중소형주 급락, 2008 위기)이라 관리가 중요. 내부 경영(정직·배고픔·영리함)을 외부 요인보다 중시. 구체적 종목 전망은 명시적으로 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
So people will join you in the future and I understand that the biggest way to earn money in the share market is this, which you have also explained to me that knowledge, debt and patience, so in all my three stocks, the only thing that I understand is your conviction and then debt, how many shares you have and how big a risk, as Swami ji told, how big a risk you can take in it is important and patience, if in the recession of 2008, all your money gets wiped out, then at that time, with what patience do you keep it and do not sell your shares and so this is the only story behind it, so that's it, this is what I want to computer, thank you very much [appreciation] thank you sir, yes welcome sir.
So Vijay Bhai, right from the beginning we have listened to Swami ji, listened to EMS, Saurabh told us about compounding, told us about global investments. It is dinner time now and the real test of patience of all the audience is coming now. Everyone is interested in knowing one thing. What is that market?
It is like this friend and sometimes I feel that I had read that story in my childhood that there was an elephant and four blind men, the one who holds its tail thinks it is like a rope, the one who holds its leg thinks it is like a pillar, it is like this, so everyone has their own perspective of the market and I am actually blind but I am blind in the rainy season, I see only green all the time, my life in the stock market, my career, you can imagine it must have been around 30-35 years old.
I do n't remember a day when I did n't have shares. I don't remember a day when I was 100% in cash, I can never even think of it in my life. Even 10% cash of two, four or five rupees might have remained. That too does not last more than 10 days, 15 days or 20 days. So everything appears good to me. You are 100% invested through out your 30 years.
Yes always, that is why perhaps you have become so wealthy. No, wealth is still work in progress, friend. Right now I'm a little bit higher than where I was. But I am far below where I want to go. So if I am a traveler, friend, I have no home or destination, I have to keep moving. If you call this much wealth work in progress, then when will it stop?
Stop what? Stop. Now Warren Buffett said that I will retire 20 years after my death. Then what will be the stop? Well, we have just discussed about Bangar Cap, so we have heard about large cap, mid cap, multi cap, from where did you come up with this new word Bhangar Cap, see Bhangar Cap is such that it is not just a new word that you have come up with it because sometimes even in large caps there are Bhangar Caps.
So the meaning of scrap cap is not just that the penny stock is scrap cap. So, there can be junk caps in large caps, mid caps and small caps. So secondly, if you understand me, I told you that these 5000 shares will be junk. If you tell Saurabh Dada, he will say that out of 6000, 5880 is scrap cap. Isn't it equal?
So what is it? So I want to tell him this. Simply one should understand this. Penny stocks have already come inside the Bangar cap. Understand this. Whatever shares there are in the stock market which do not grow, whose there is no revenue growth, there is no growth in the company, but their empty PE expands, that too during the period when there is a bull market, when there is a fast market, then their PE expands, PE of 10 will become 15, PE of 10 will become 18, when the market falls, it will come back to 5, 7, 8 and ultimately there is no growth in the company, so I take them from the point of view of Bangar Cap because the growth of PE, people, there has been no empty PE expansion in the three shares that you are talking about.
Suppose the PE expansion of a company grows 10 times and the company grows 10 times, then it becomes 100 times. So you have a very concentrated portfolio of 8 to 10 stocks. Your core portfolio consists of 8 to 10 stocks. Eight to 10 Stocks Core Portfolio. Portfolio. So you believe that the more concentrated the portfolio, the better can be the returns.
Of course there is no question. You should look at your homes, if there are 10 children in a house or two children in a house, where is prosperity? There is no prosperity in a house with 10 children. It happens wherever there are two children. There is another example that whatever you and I talk about multiple, the shares increase multi times, forget it, it does not happen 100 times all the time.
There are also five times. There are also 10 times. The shares that are going to be his are 1%. Not even one such share out of 100 will come. If you look at the history of 15 years, of 202 years, then you will not find even 50 shares which would have given a return of 100 baggers, Dada, almost exactly, not even 1% of the shares are multiples [laughs], so one share out of 100 is a multiple, so think if you invest in 100 shares, one by one you invest in 100 shares, if your one share is ₹100, then the total portfolio becomes 200 out of 100, your youth will be spent in it, 101 years of your life will be spent in it, so saying this, one should invest wisely and concentrate.
The portfolio should be kept and if the portfolio becomes concentrated then automatically you will keep ₹10. If you invest ₹10 in a share instead of ₹100, that is the only way to create wealth. Vijay Bhai your favorite court is Rome Wasn't Built in a Day But Hirashima and Nagaseki Was Destroyed in a Day.
So what is the principle about this court? No, it is simple that look at the stock market, it works here for two reasons. One is internal and one is external. Internally, if you are a Chartered Accountant, MBA or a High School Educated, then you may fail miserably in the stock markets. So I [sound of clearing throat] know a lot of executives of companies who are big CEOs who run companies worth Rs 5000-10000 crore.
But the stock market is going to be zero for them. Because they understand it internally. Let us understand the balance sheet of the company. Understand the numbers. Understand the economy. But apart from the external factors, it also became political or you can say it was related to the draw or something related to imports, it was related to forex.
Along with all these things, as he said, it is very important for him to know about the stock market because of Mac. So that means you need to be an investor [laughs] and also have some knowledge of economics. So let me say this, its simple, the most weightage in this is that my court of trading is that Hiroshima and Nagasaki will disturb any day.
and Forget About Trading. You should also see here, what happened in 2018, 4-5 months ago, all the mid-caps fell from 40% to 80% across the board, so if you were leveraged at that time and if you had done a great job at that time, till 2014 you were watching the show and in 2018 you came to bat and there was a shock, then your Hiroshiwa Nagasa was shaken within a single day [sound of clearing throat], so this is the quote on that that all the investments in the stock market are risky investments, there is no full proof investment here, that is like an ocean in the risky place where you have to make your boat there.
Keeping this in mind [laughs] if you understand risk, what is risk? The risk in which you cannot assess the risk is the real risk. If you assess the risk then it is not a risk. Then that, then that is risk management. So this court of mine is Harashima and Nagasaki, destroyed any day or related to these circumstances and related to especially future and option related to trading which I call it and plus Bhangar Cap which people talk about penny stocks, people think that they want that ₹4 share because I have 1 lakh shares, quantity is more than quantity, they are impressed that I have 500 shares, ₹1 lakh shares, so to avoid them, so before we open the floor for questions, I would like to inform you that Vijay Bhai, along with being an investor, he is a very good singer, also he is a very good lyricist, also and I cannot stop myself to at least play one song at the end of this session, so can [praise] I just sing two lines like this, Thoda Profit Jamana [song voice] shuru ho gaya, Thoda Profit Jawana shuru [ song voice] ho gaya, mujhko feel laga me I became a Guru.
I started feeling like I had become a guru. What's next? When I gained confidence, I placed a big bet. When I gained confidence, I placed a big bet. I lost so much money [song voice] it was fun. My future option is always the tension. You tortured me so much, I enjoyed it. Done. Thank you very much.
So today sometimes the IT system does not work, so perhaps it is more fun live. I will just inform you that once a similar presentation of Modi ji was going on. And the mic went through the middle. This was when he was a Chief Minister. I Saw This on YouTube and the mic went off. So Modi ji said a very good thing that it was good that the mike was switched off.
This program did not appear in newspapers. He will definitely come tomorrow. But it will not come that the mic is switched off. This has come, this will come, that Modi has become speechless. So we will have a couple of questions. Yes Mukesh Bhai. Mukesh Bhai has come from Nashik specially to attend this.
Sir we are very big fan of Yars and Vijay Kedia, first we look at the sector, first we look at the industry or first we look at the script, what is the success story that is number one, number two as you said, we should look at internal factors and external factors. Our perspective is formed on both these things.
So who should be given more weightage ? External or internal? Thank you. As far as I understand, the sector you mentioned remains somewhere in the mind. Of course, the sector is important. The sector keeps running in the mind. Because this is our job, once we invest, as I have said many times at many places, what is our job ?
Once on the plane. From here, understand that the plane is going to London. not going anywhere. It is a 6 hour journey. So that pair host also says sit back and relax. So once you enter inside him then he becomes like Abhimanyu. In that old movie, Ajit used to say, coming is your wish, Barkhadar, going is our wish.
So my investment is like this. If you make a large size investment and invest within mid caps, then you cannot come as per your wish. [Sound of clearing throat] So the sector, of course, is the important one because what I look at the most is growth. If you understand that today the numbers of the company are bad, today the balance sheet is also bad.
It means it is not bad just like that. But if the reason is bad but there is growth in the sector and another quote of mine is that there should be fire in the management, there should be ambition in it. So Honest, Hungry and Smart is one of my quotes that three things should be there in management.
Honest, hungry and smart. All these three things should be present in it. So if there is no growth in that sector and if there is hunger in the company then it cannot achieve much. So the sector is more important from the outside but after filtering down it comes down to which company within that sector can grow more than its peers.
Can grow fast. So this is the approach. So first of all, this is the answer to the question and secondly, between external and internal, the internal factor should definitely be given more weightage because sometimes external factors are mostly temporary [laughs] factors, like suppose there is a drought or if any such problem arises in the Forex sector chronically, then it is a different matter.
But if your internal base is not strong and even if the external factors are good, you cannot progress. And if your external is good, internal is good and if the external is bad then it may be temporary. You must be aware that the knowledge that I have given you of being hungry and honest, hungry and smart, with your smartness you can use it well in bad times so that you can grow fast in good times.
Which sector are you looking at in the coming days where you feel it will be quite good? I like the top sub-sector of India, Sir, practically [laughs] the thing is that I like the entire India, I feel that my vision is of 10-15 years and in India two things run on rotation simultaneously. One is elections and secondly these sectors of the stock market move on rotation.
And this is the way of the government and this is the way of the sector also. The shares which boomed from 2003 to 2007 and became 10 times, 15 times, 50 times, 100 times, could not do anything from 2008 to 2014 and those which did not do anything between 2003 to 2007, became multibaggers between 2008 to 2014, this works on rotation, now there is a quote of mine that buy like a bull, like a bear and watch like an eagle, just like he catches fish, he comes back after catching it from the top and takes it to the sea, that is your work only, if it is full time investment and if you cannot give that much time, then you should do it through mutual funds or PMS or whatever it is.
So we can have one last question please. Sir, here you talked about all the shares, talked about Sera, talked about Al, so I want a share in your portfolio, it is Apkotex, I want to know its future outlook. You have a huge investment in it and I also follow you on your portfolio on YouTube. Whatever you invest in, I invest in it nominally.
So I want to know the future outlook about the app and secondly you told about success, knowledge debt but the third thing is not there, our small investors do not have patience, so what should be done for that, see Vijay Bhai, these people have your complete horoscope, I said you have a lot of fans here because everything here is air conditioned, there is not even a single fan with me, first of all you should not follow anyone blindly, forget about me, I am a very small man in the stock market and I am not saying anything polite or modest.
Whichever list of big people you see, my name is at the very last. But I always say that I am a work in progress. And that line doesn't end until the man quits. So first of all, you should not blindly follow anyone because whatever I am talking about shares or whatever I have reduced talking about these days, if you ask me, my mind may change the next day because I myself am an investor in the market.
I am not a fund manager. So I am not responsible and accountable to anyone. My mind may change or if I do not have any better opportunity then I can go and sell those shares. So you will not know that. So you can get trapped in that. First of all, secondly, it is difficult for me to say this to you regarding tax.
Generally, I like whatever is related to it, especially like my investment in Sudarshan, you would know, I like this field of specialty chemicals. Its Mac management is good. You must know who its management is. So, I like the future of these specialties in chemicals and niche segments in chemicals, not commodities.
And what about patience, you told me how to get patience, sir? Yes, knowledge, courage and patience. No, that's it. Thank you. How to get patience, brother. Look, get patience, do meditation [laughs]. That simple way to get patience. Someone asked me, friend, you take it, everything happens, when the market falls, what do you do?
So, I said, look, friend, I do yoga. When the market falls, I get into shavasana and lie down in my room doing shavasana and do yoga. So, the biggest patience is patience, friend, you will have to develop it. When you leave the small money, then you will get the courage to raise big money. If we keep getting attached to small money, we will miss the bigger picture.
So I have a quote, please read it. It says chase the story behind the stock not the money on the table. Money will make you rich but stories will make you wealthy. So you will have to control your mind and do what you want. He told you that the swan and the heron are like Mother Mansarovar, is there anything like that?
The heron chooses the mother's knife, the swan eats the pearl, then you have to become like the swan, become like the heron, this is what they tell themselves. Before investing in the stock market, before understanding the stock market, it is very important to understand your mind, yourself, your character.
First understand yourself and then try to understand the stock market and find out which formula fits me. In so many things, I have to decide which policy and which principle suits my mind for what. Ca n't you fool your mind?
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