저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 최근 CPI 발표 충격과 중동 긴장에도 불구하고 시장 조정은 일시적이며 매수 기회라고 주장. 핵심 인플레는 1.7%로 정상화 중이라 보고, 2024년 말 S&P500이 5600~5700 수준(현재 5123 대비 약 9~11% 상승)까지 갈 수 있다고 전망. 밸류에이션은 금리 4~5% 구간 역사적 중앙값 PE 20배 대비 아직 높지 않다고 주장. 연내 금리 인하는 기대하나 6월 인하 확률은 낮아졌다고 언급.
다듬은 글
I I know this is uh going to be tough for investors to to embrace it but I think something like I'm sorry what is probably where the S&P exits the year maybe even higher hi team value JJ here welcome back well today we're going to have a look at what Tom Lee from fun strat's been saying he's known as a bit of a perable and unsurprisingly he's pretty bullish on the S&P 500 for the rest of the year even though we've had these disruptions in the market in the last week or two had the CPI coming in hot which I made a video about and we've had this conflict in the Middle East escalating with Iran and Israel but that's just the day today let's see what Tom Lee is saying about the market for the rest of the year but fun strats Tom Lee says it's temporary a temporary moment of pain and a buy the dip opportunity he joins me now Post 9 to make that case good to see you again I'm glad you're here in person too so so you don't think that much change this week uh I mean I think the narrative got muddled because that CPI report was a disappointment but it was driven by what what we'd call stubborn components shelter auto insurance you know the median core CPI component now has only 1.7% year-over-year inflation I mean inflation is normalizing it's just not evident in the total picture so well he thinks the narrative has got mled notice how he emphasizes the narrative there when it comes to markets so that it's a bull market narrative he's known as a Perma bull quite often so always very bullish and that's worked out so far apart from 2022 when there was a bare Market he was kind of bullish and there too it's only bearish for short periods of time if if ever and so he thinks that the CPI that came out last week which I did a video about you know Larry Summers was talking about the interest rates in inflation I'll put that link in the description if you want to see that but here he's just saying it's an anomaly and it is normalizing down let's see what else he has to say the pce in a couple of weeks is going to be more favorable we think than these latest inflation reads and I know what everybody says about it's you know being the fed's favored measure on on where inflation is but are you entertaining the idea that this is not going to be as easy as you once thought it was going to be for this last Mile and therefore the market can't do what you once thought it could uh I mean I I'd say that that's really the narrative disruption this week you know because now the FED has three inflation reports that it can't argue against that are a little hotter than expected and the Bulls can't really explain them away either can they that's right well talks about the narrative again the narrative disrupted by inflation so this inflation has come out higher cpi's come out a little bit higher and that's disrupted The Narrative the market went down so the narrative changed even since he was speaking here where people worried about World War I heard World War III narrative you really can't predict one week one day to the next one week to the next about what's going to happen as I said he's a perable so he thinks that the S&P 500 is going to go up a certain percentage this year still no matter what happens he's kind of saying that what we would need to see is April and May CPI improvements which is in the future um and then keeps the fed from standing in the way of the economy what we don't want is a Fed that wants to further slow the economy which is rate hikes and I think if they just do even one hike this year it's still a actually a good environment for stocks one one cut you mean sorry one cut yeah let's be clear see that's a Freudian slip I to stop him there because Larry Summers said in that previous video that I made he wouldn't be surprised if there's actually another rate hike now there's some probability of a rate hike he was talking in probabilities people like Tom Lee like to think that they can predict absolutely not really so much talking in probabilities which is why I have a problem with this really where Larry of Summers and says now there's a probability that it could even be a hike rather than a cut or you know the probability is more towards what say one rate cut for the rest of the year he thinks other people think there's three rate cut I've had comments of people saying there's still three red cuts on the cards some investors expecting that so there's varied opinion there it's really hard to predict the macro as I keep saying and I don't do that I don't wouldn't want to do that in terms of investing based on that certainly not some investors do that like Stanley Dr and Miller but there are so few investors in the world who can successfully do that over a longterm mainstream Finance media likes to have these people on who are willing to predict because it you know gets viewers gets ratings but it's just such a day-to-day week to week thing but they do like having Tom Le on he can be trusted to be a permeabil I mean because the you know the the greatest fear of all is that they're going to have to hike again however remote that possibility seems today and even if you put into the the the soup all the FED commentary that we've gotten of late just seems to be push off rather than push up that's right and I think it's you know at the end of the day it's even if CPI does look like it's somewhat sticky pce as you pointed out is more cooperative and ppi is and measures like true inflation show inflation much softer um inflation expectations much lower so I think at some point we could also just ask is is CPI a bit aberant is CPI a bit aberant like he says again I go back to aswath deodoran who was on last week I made a video with him I link that in the description as well where he was saying that in history over history inflation when it's been elev ated a bit has been really sticky it's turned out to be unexpectedly sticky that's happened again and again and Tom Lee is sort of still saying that he thinks it's it's coming down it'll continue to come down so we'll have to see what happens but I wouldn't really surprise me if inflation continued to be sticky and it maybe stayed above three but I just don't know you know they're aiming for that between two and three Goldilocks zone I would not be surprised if inflation is sticky and interest rates stay elevated as well but maybe the Market's getting used to that as I've discussed before it was a shock when in rates first went up inflation went high it was a it was a shock to the market a shock to high multiple growth stocks for instance but now the market is getting a little bit used to it we've got these other things like War coming in you know with Iran Israel conflict that's disrupted the market we'll have to see what happens for the rest of the year it's going to be interesting now if you're getting value out of this episode so far I'd really appreciate it if you remember to smash that like button to help the algorith them to spread it to more people cuz that's what we want thanks what about the valuations of the market how do you counter the argument that they're just way too stretched multiples are just way too rich given what now is likely to be the case of cuts later on uh I mean I think when someone looks at 20 years of History that's the argument they'll make if they look at 90 years of PE multiples versus interest rates when the tenure is between 4 and 5% which is a pretty big range the median PE is 20 times so we're we're not even at a median PE multiple of what's existed whenever the 10 years's been in this range so and then if you look at the median stock it's actually at 16 times I'd say that there's upside to earnings I think multiples can expand I don't think 5200 is the ceiling for stocks this year what what what feels like a right the right ceiling now uh I I know this is uh going to be tough for investors to to embrace it but I think something like 56 5700 is probably where the S&P exits the year maybe even higher 56 5700 he thinks the S&P 500 will be by the end of the year or maybe even higher let's just have a look at that it's 5,123 right now which means that that's 9 to 11% higher for the rest of the year and we are in April now so thinks from April to the end of the year it's likely that the S&P 500 will go up 9 to 11% more others are not so bullish like that as I said as what the motor and thinks that it is elevated the stock market in general he certainly thinks the mag 7even stocks are elevated made a video about that before and also that Nvidia is insanely priced at the moment but he's saying that the overall Market is elevated he would definitely be expecting a pullback and after we said that it has gone down it has pulled back a little bit for various reasons CPI came out demin thinks that the market is not pricing in risks adequately it's just getting ahead of itself here and it'll probably pull back Tom Le thinking the opposite that the S&P 500 could keep going and there are so many different opinions on the market all the time now speaking of the s&p500 which is really the market Benchmark for investors to beat it's hard to beat it as you can see here on the screen this is my small and midcap portfolio mostly small caps and it's a big chunk of My overall portfolio it's up nearly four times the S&P 500 if we go back a year it's nearly double the S&P 500 now for small small cap stocks the index to really look at is the Russell 2000 Index and we can see here that year to date it's actually down.
48% and for the year it's up 11.11% so it's particularly pleasing to beat that index by such a long way with a portfolio that's got small cap stocks in it now I don't say this to brag I want to tell you about the art of value patreon Community because over there is the only place that I share my portfolio I talk about learning how to invest the way that I invest and different ways of researching stocks this is not investment advice it's showing a way to invest rather than just copying Investments which I highly discourage over there I do talk about how I go about it so I'll put a link in the description if you want to check that out and see you over there more backloaded into that than you once thought uh I think it's still backloaded because we'll have the cuts behind us and we'll have visibility into 20 25 earnings which probably could be 270 maybe 280 next year see that he's saying we have the cuts behind us he's really assuming there's going to be red Cuts this year which is a big assumption to make a lot of people do think that but anything could happen when you say we'll have the cuts behind us are you so sure right so let's just take June off the table for argument sake no June yeah you think the first one's in July or it could be September but it but that's why I asked you if the if the the moving in the market that you just suggested it's backloaded because you're not going to get a big move until you see the first cut at this point now there's a lot of disbelief in the market that's right and Scott one thing to keep in mind is the probability of a June cut has been reduced but it it can come back if we have a good April and May CPI because then it's going to put back into Focus what is the trend in CPI it does feel stubborn when you look at January February March so you men that inflation is looking sticky is looking stubborn but he's still expecting it to dissipate and he's really predicting projecting I just don't think it's the case that people should be predicting like this cuz Anything Could Happen we've just seen the last few days so you just can't predict from one day to the next one week to the next one month to the next one quarter to the next and Warren Buffett says that it's silly to invest based on these macro events that could come out of the blue or just could do the opposite of what you think now I'm going to put links in the description to those episodes I mentioned earlier and if you're watching on YouTube I'm going to put a link here here to the video that YouTube thinks that you in particular should watch next so go and see that now if you want to and thanks to everybody for watching or listening wherever you're doing that and I'll see you in the next one
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