저자: Kevin · 외국인
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엔비디아-오픈AI 1000억달러 투자 약속이 사실상 축소(20~30억달러 수준)되어 AI 투자 사이클이 둔화 조짐이라고 주장. 오라클은 현금흐름 악화, 대규모 감원, 채권·주식 발행(450~500억달러)으로 부채 부담 확대, CDS 급등. 사모신용 펀드 환매와 UAE 투자 지연도 리스크로 지목. 반도체·메모리 주의 필요, 다만 즉각 전량매도는 아니라는 입장. 시장 과열 신호로 내부자 매도비율 상승도 언급.
다듬은 글
Holy smokes. This is potentially economically catastrophic. We just had Nvidia rugpull OpenAI. Although some people are saying it's not a rugpull, it's a big problem. And we're going to go into the details of it. Oracle laying off 30,000 employees while potentially not becoming cash flow positive for the rest of the decade and now raising money.
Big problems here. All related to the chic's 49% purchase of Donald Trump's WLFI just 4 days before inauguration. Not sus at all. But all three of these things connected to the private credit disaster that's brewing. We've got to pay attention to this because this could be the turning point of the entire decade.
And I think it'll make a centuriesl long style impact. So watching the movements doesn't mean go sell everything tomorrow and panic and go to cash or whatever. It means let's be reasonable. Let's break down what's actually going on and take this all one step at a time. So in this video, we're going to break down what is going on with Oracle's cash crunch, the warning for memory stocks like Sandis and Micron.
We're going to talk about what Jensen just said regarding the Nvidia rugpull, which is a very big deal. And we'll explain why this spy chic everyone is talking about is involved with all of this. And then of course, all of that ties into private credit. So without further ado, let's get started. First, we had a rug pull on the Nvidia OpenAI deal this weekend, and it led a lot of people to pick sides immediately because that's usually what people do.
They go, you know, the Nvidia bulls go, "Yeah, no, everything's fine. Jensen said it's going to be the best investment ever into OpenAI, the greatest ever." And then on the other side, you got bears going, "Holy smokes, they just basically cut this agreed upon deal to the tune of 70 to 80%." And the reality is both can be true, but I want you to think of this for a moment as a circle.
In fact, let's make this just really simple by taking out a piece of paper and a Sharpie here. So, all I want you to think about, boy, this reminds me of the old whiteboard days. Leave me a comment if you were around to the whiteboard days. But anyway, think about this. if Nvidia commits since September of 2025, which they did, uh, to an OpenAI deal where they provide $10 billion to Open AI every time they open up a new portion of a data center or achieve some kind of milestone, then all of a sudden, OpenAI can go spend that money on data center leases like at companies such as Oracle and Oracle can then go buy many billions of dollars worth of Nvidia chips and then of course Nvidia says, "Hey, well, if we reach the first $10 billion milestone, we could do it again and again and again and again and again." Well, we already know this is very circular and weird.
But what happens when Nvidia starts getting a little gunshy? What happens if they stop drinking from the potion of AI and people start realizing, "Oh crap, we might need to hedge our bets." Well, that's when the whole chain starts slowing down or potentially worse. And we're starting to see the or worse already.
But let's understand these numbers for a moment. Take a look at this. That $10 billion that wasn't a timeline of investment announcements, partnerships, and the apparent walkback of what was framed as a landmark AI infrastructure deal. $100 billion was what the commitment was tied to different phases of a hundred billion uh buildout.
Well, all of a sudden that $100 billion buildout is likely only to be about a 20 to30 billion buildout, if that. And that's because Jensen says this 70 to 80% reduction isn't because he doesn't want to invest in OpenAI. It's because he's starting to have his doubts about OpenAI. See, OpenAI bragged and cheerleaded about this 10 gawatt of Nvidia systems and this strategic partnership in September of 2025.
It led Oracle to skyrocket. It led Nvidia to go up about 4% and people got really excited about OpenAI. Now that the excitement is fading, Oracle is getting sued bigly, which we'll talk about the lawsuit in this as well. But understand this, this was ballpark the commitment. Nvidia meets OpenAI, hundred billion dollar total fund, 10 gigawatts, millions of Nvidia GPUs, and they would bring them online with one gigawatt at a time starting with the second half of 2026.
And every, you know, 6 months, theoretically, we would do an extra gigawatt. Yet all of a sudden, before we even get to the first gigawatt, Jensen is getting cold feet. And this is what starts the slowdown of the cycle. That is no bueno. Now, how do we know that this cycle is slowing down? What is Jensen privately saying?
And how do we reconcile that with what he's saying uh publicly? Well, privately, per the Wall Street Journal, Jensen has emphasized to industry associates in recent months that the original $100 billion deal was non-binding and non-finalized. It was basically a concept of a plan. So it was never actually a deal, you know.
So people go up to Jensen, they're like, "Hey, how's your hundred billion dollar investment going?" And he's like, "No, no, no. Well, you know, we were only going to do 10 at a time. We're not going to do a hundred." That That's crazy. Why? Because that's why. Okay. No, actually, why? Because Jensen described a lack of discipline from OpenAI's business approach.
Well, that's not good. So all of a sudden you're saying OpenAI, this company that you want this really cozy relationship with is maybe not the best company to have a relationship with. And if you cozy up to the looney in the business who has, you know, $20 billion, let's say, of revenue, and somehow they're going to turn $20 billion of revenue, even though they're losing money, so they basically have no money, they're going to turn that into $1.4 trillion of spending.
Maybe all of a sudden you're like, you know what? If I associate myself too much with OpenAI, I'm going to come across like a clown and customers like Anthropic and Google might not trust me as much anymore. So, Jensen has to play the tightroppe game. I like to call it the friendly neighbor. Imagine this.
I think this is a great analogy. Let's say you're Jensen and you sell hardware and tools. You're a friendly neighbor and Sam always buys from your warehouse. Sam's got big plans. That's great. You're like, "Hey, Sam, you're welcome to spend at my store anytime you want. I'll put a little bit into your business, but am I going to go hundred billion dollars deep into your business?" Uh, no.
Now, why am I not going to go $100 billion deep? Well, you know, I got I got other companies I got to take care of as well. I can't only rely on you. This is distancing. Jensen is privately going, "I don't know, man. We can't trust these people. We can't go down with them." publicly he's saying, quote, "I really love working with Sam." Okay, well that's meaningless.
That doesn't mean anything. Just because you love the person. Whether that's true or not doesn't matter. Uh then he says that OpenAI is one of the most consequential companies of our time in public interviews. Okay, well that's meaningless. That doesn't mean anything. And he says, "We're going to make a huge investment into OpenAI." Well, yeah, but you already said you were going to make a quote huge investment back here of hundred billion, but your new version of huge might only be 10 or 20 billion.
And that new version of huge, and this is the big concern, represents a 70 to potentially 90% reduction from what you originally said. So even though, yeah, you're still going to make a big investment, you're privately saying the guy lacks discipline. You made a non-binding agreement. You created a concept of a plan with this guy and Sam Alman ran with it to try to raise more money from other people and now you're distancing yourself because you don't want to go down with the Sam Alman scam.
Well, we don't know that it's a scam, but you know that's what some people are worried about. And so this is why we see, hey, you were involved from the beginning, 2016, you donated the DGX1. Elon was involved in this. You were part of the 2024 $6.6 billion fund raise. you were part of the 10 gawatt infrastructure announcement deal, but now all of a sudden you're U-turning.
That U-turn is an early warning sign. Again, it doesn't mean run and go to the bank today. It's just an early warning sign of a turning point. And that creates risk. Now, again, I don't want to come across like, you know, some crazy bear. We do uh, you know, I'm 5.5 on the bull bear scale right now or bear bull scale right now, which means I'm pretty midpoint.
I did set us down from 6.5 because of the wash appointment. I think that's a mistake. I made a video on it that same morning, Friday morning. I also said this is probably a top for gold and silver, which if you didn't see it in my video, which it was there. It was also, of course, in our alpha report.
So, quick shout out just to catch you up to speed. These were our calls, the last three trading sessions in the alpha report. January 29th, Microsoft loses at open. the cues are going to go down. Tesla follows down and Microsoft goes down to 428. I called it 80% likely and all happened. January 30th, we called a silver and gold top in our alpha report before we started seeing the collapse and watch for stability in the cues around 627.
It's exactly what happened both these days, by the way, when I was on vacation. So, I apologize for that. And then of course Monday, February 2nd, that was this morning. I was looking for a hold in pre-market and an open. And as long as we got a hold at 617, which we did, I called for a schllo to 627 and that it was a buy the dip.
And that Tesla would probably go down to the 414 line, which it did, and Hood would go down, which it did. I think it's down like 7% right now. So if you want to be part of that, remember that's the Meet Kevin alpha report. And this is our I mean rocket ship of a line-to-line movement today right here that we called out.
And what was remarkable is you could actually even see in Tesla the perfect 414 bounce right on the line. Uh anyway, I know that might seem unbelievable especially since Robin Hood also crashed about 10%. Sorry, not trying to come across as stock god. Make mistakes as well, but the last three trading days have been phenomenal.
So take a look at that if you're ever interested at mekevin.com. Now, with that out of the way, let's understand that while Jensen is distancing himself, there's something worse going on, and it has to do with the Oracle cash crunch. Oracle is losing so much money that they are not expected to be cash flow positive until, frankly, 2030, if even.
They're losing so much money that they're now having to go to their customers and suggest, hey, you know what? uh in order for us to actually build out data centers, we're going to require a 40% deposit and we're going to cut 20 to 30,000 jobs from our company and you can maybe bring your own chips.
So, think about that cycle for a moment. Let's go over here. Let's grab a little pointer device. Okay, if Nvidia starts getting wonky about actually investing that much money into OpenAI and Oracle over here says we need 40% down to even start building these data centers. Well, all of a sudden, OpenAI gets squeezed from both areas.
This is bad. Open AAI, who desperately needs money, isn't getting as much from Nvidia. Hopefully the Saudis or, you know, the UAE or whatever come to bail them out, but OpenAI isn't getting as much from Nvidia and they need more. So, they need more and they're getting less and they're burning more. All three of those are bad.
That's not sustainable. That's not sustainable. That's not sustainable. All three of those are bad. So, the cycle is still going, but it's starting like like a a gear that's getting like a little branch stuck in it. It's starting to grind to a slow and part of it is clearly outlined by Oracle. Like why do you lay off 20 to 30,000 people?
Cuz Oracle doesn't have money anymore. They need more money from their customers. Why are you telling your customers to bring their own chips? Cuz you can't afford the Nvidia chips. Why do you need 40% deposits? Because you don't want your bond holders to keep suing you. Oh, that's right. After the, we'll talk about this in a moment, but after the September bond raise that they did, 7 weeks later, they turn around raise more debt, and the bond holders are like, "What the hell?
You didn't disclose you were going to do another bond raise right after that, and we immediately lost 9 to 10% face value on our bonds. No wonder credit default swaps, just like in 2008 for Oracle, are skyrocketing. They're the highest level since 2008. We're at 155 right now, and that'll probably move even more tomorrow once we actually get the digestion in this bond market.
So, watch that tomorrow. But in addition to this, you guys are so freaking out of money, you're actually cing out your business. Like, if you look at their actual income statement for November, you might initially go, "Wow, look at all that increase in income they had. This is their net income line right here.
6.3." Well, their operating income line, uh, 6.3, yeah, income before income taxes. 6.3 billion, up from 3.3 the year before that. Wow. Look, we made almost double the money. Wait a minute. Without selling or cing out a portion of your business, your chip designing business, your net income would have only grown 10 to 12%.
Now, sure, it's still growth, but at what freaking cost? Just look at their cash flow statement for the last 3 years. Their net cash that actually ended up going into capital expenditures right here, this line, blew up from $8.6 6 billion in 2023 down actually to 6.8 in 2024 and then they got drunk and spent $21 billion.
So their capex nearly actually more than 3xed and their net income only went up before taxes only went up about 10 to 12%. But they had to gut their business by selling a 29% stake in their chip designing business to make it seem like their income was growing. So, you're kind of getting a lot of weird signs here.
You're getting a business that says, "Hey, we need to fire in the 20 to 30,000 people. We're going to gut our business just to pay our bills. We're going to demand higher uh deposits from our customers. We are going to tell our customers to bring their own chips." And Nvidia is slowing down. Folks, there's only one way this whole cycle goes, and it's not good from here.
Now, it's understandable. Maybe Nvidia is wanting to, you know, not scare companies like Amazon, you know, making their tranium chip or Google with their TPUs. And so they're trying to be respectful of their competitors and try to be sort of like, you know, LLM neutral. If uh if OpenAI doesn't win, then maybe Gemini does or somebody else, you know, Claude does.
And that way Nvidia is fine. So maybe maybe the pullback is entirely reasonable from Nvidia, but it doesn't matter what Jensen's reason for the pullback is. What matters is money is slowing. And it was no surprise that while I was doing my analysis, we all of a sudden got an announcement that Oracle plans to raise 45 to50 billion.
25 billion in debt and probably 20 to 25 in selling [snorts] stock. The problem with this is they didn't really time their stock sale that well. They should have sold stock at the top of the market. Instead, here they are selling stock when they're down 45%. Which could potentially accelerate the sell down.
Unfortunately, when you accelerate a sell down on the stock, you also increase credit default swaps because the company seems less financially resilient, which then reduces more private credit funding or people who do invest in private credit demand higher yields. Now, there's something interesting going on right now.
Jim Kramer, we always like to inverse trade, but Jim Kramer tells us that the Oracle bonds are widely overs subscribed. talk of it being a new record. Pricing is coming in between 6.25 and 7. Understand that is a massive bill for Oracle. Oracle isn't paying 4.5% like Apple or 0% like Micro Strategy, but that's a different thing.
They're not paying yields that are in alignment with a highgrade company. They're paying yields that are kind of junky. The problem with that is you now massively increase the debt expense that this company ends up facing. Remember this sheet right here? It all relates to OpenAI because TD Cohen estimates that the OpenAI partnership alone may end up costing Oracle $156 billion in just capital expenses.
So to satisfy what OpenAI wants, they need to borrow a whole lot more money. and they've already been borrowing and issuing stock, a lot of it. That's why a lot of investors in Oracle are really pissed. Look at this. Over the last three years, over the last 3 years, we've seen uh stockbased compensation increase about 32%.
We've seen share dilution of about 5.3% as we've created 142 million shares and their stock buybacks have really only offset a fraction of the total shares and dilution that they are causing now. Sure, they're going to lay off people to try to save some money, but the question is how much do we have to raise?
Because multiple banks are already reportedly pulling back from Oracle linked data center projects. We saw the private credit exodus at Blue Owl, which is really just the blue owl in the coal mine, right? The canary in the coal mine of people exiting private credit, trying to demand their money out.
We've been covering that on the channel. But we're also starting to see Oracle suggest that they may end up selling their healthcare software unit, which they bought for $28.3 billion in 2022. What are they going to do with that? Just like when they sold and raised $4.3 billion on the Ampear sale, end of last year.
They're going to use that cash to fund AI infrastructure. So, you have a company that's like, "We need money so badly, we're going to sell our chip designing company. We'll sell our stake in that. We might sell our healthcare software business where we've got great margins just so we can get our hands on more money." Because even though Jim Kramer says this is oversubscribed, it's only oversubscribed at an interest rate that's actually pretty aggressive for a company like Oracle.
They're having to increase their cost to service debt potentially to the tune of $1.6 billion. Now, their numbers already don't look that great. Let's go through some of the Oracle numbers on the balance sheet, and you could see why it's kind of urgent that they raise money. So, the first thing we do is we go to their balance sheet.
And in their balance sheet, you're going to see the following. They've got $19.7 billion of cash and they have bills to pay of $27.8 billion. So before Oracle announced their fund raise, I was looking at this and I wrote they're $10 billion short. They literally don't have enough money to pay their bills come November of 2025.
So they desperately needed to raise money. And sure enough, the same day I'm doing my analysis, they announced that they're raising 45 to50 billion. Not really a shocker at all. Now, something else that's really unique about Oracle is they've now got money that they have on a line item inside their actual capital expense list that they have unpaid capex of $6.8 billion.
That's just a footnote at the bottom of their financial statement that says, well, technically on the statement, it's not a footnote, but it says here unpaid capex $6.8 billion. That's over 3x nearly three and a half times what they had last year. And it makes you wonder, wait, so that means you all accepted inventory but didn't pay for it yet.
So somebody is now giving you basically a payable loan because you don't have enough cash to even buy the stuff that's showing up. All of this is a debt bomb. Currently, their interest expense is about $3.6 6 billion per year on about $18 billion of operating income. After this issuance, they'll probably be at about $5.2 billion of interest.
That puts them dangerously close to a leverage ratio of 3x. That's really, really important for blue chip companies. As soon as blue chip companies go under 3x, where all of a sudden their their income, their operating income doesn't cover their income, well, their operating income isn't three times what their interest expenses are, risk goes way up that the companies are one misstep away from bankruptcy.
Now, I'm not saying that the company's going to go bankrupt, but what I am saying is the following happens. Here's why 3x matters. If you don't maintain 3x debt to income basically, so your income's 3x what your debt is, right? Your debt expense, you get ratings pressure and if you get downgraded, your bonds sell off more and you potentially now eliminate the opportunity to raise money at reasonable rates.
You're already at six to seven, which is pretty high for Oracle, especially on the magnitude that they're doing. But it also gives you less wiggle room in case there's any issue at your underlying business like oh I don't know a delay in pouring concrete at one of your data centers. It's not good. And while right now liquidity spreads seems you know tight which or you know credit spreads are tight implying that there's liquidity for these bonds that might evaporate in the event Oracle drives too close to the sun and then they miss.
Not uncommon. It's how a lot of recessions began. Last one may have started with Jeffrey Epstein, but that's really a topic for a different video. So, take a look at this. These are things that have already happened. We've seen their bond prices collapse. We've seen CDS's, credit default swaps, that's secure.
That's basically insurance against the collapse of the company down or all the way up at 155. These are 2008 levels. They've destroyed about $400 billion of market cap. They dropped nearly 5% just on the day when their bond holders filed a lawsuit against them and they're lower since then. Their lawsuit, by the way, in fairness, they're probably going to be okay with the lawsuit.
The lawsuit, I read the lawsuit, it just alleges that Oracle made false and misleading statements because they didn't tell bond holders that just 7 weeks later they were going to raise even more debt. And so, that pissed off a lot of people. The problem is they're going to have to prove that Oracle knew at the time of this fundrais that they were going to fund raise again.
They probably did and maybe in Discovery they'll get something and it'll be bad for Oracle. But see how all of this cycle links together and of course how it's all linked back to Donald Trump. Let's explain this. So catch you up really quick and then let's explain the Donald Trump sheikica situation.
Nvidia less money to OpenAI. Open AAI needs bigger deposits for Oracle, but Oracle's interest expense is getting dangerously high. Oracle's demanding more in deposits. Oracle is asking people to bring their own chips. I'm not sure if it's working out. And now they're going to dilute their shareholders even more than they already have been.
All of this while the stock's already down 45%. Now, hopefully the cycle can keep going with a stimulant. All you need to keep this going is a little bit of a stimulus check. And who might be that stimulus? Well, it could be the United Arab Emirates. Yeah. You know, the UAE, the same UAE that the government, our government for, well, pretty much decades has not wanted to give our most expensive and highest quality chips because we were worried that they're going to give them to Russia or China or our enemies.
And all of a sudden, that same UAE that's like, "Oh, yeah. Yeah, we'll we'll just not give them to China. It'll be fine. Trust us, bro." Oh, okay. Well, what what's going on with this stimulus? Well, here you go. Steve Witkoff in December of 2024 visits the UAE. Eric Trump at a crypto conference declares, "Our family loves you, UAE folks, chic." January 16th, just 4 days before Trump's inauguration.
the UAE. Well, I mean, the spy chic, which is the brother of the president of the UAV, UAE, who sort of manages the sovereign wealth fund, he all of a sudden invests $500 billion into Donald Trump's World Liberty Financial, which is really interesting because World Liberty Financial had a token that, well, let's just put it this way, didn't do very well.
Lost a lot of people a lot of money. Remember that company Alt 5, ticker symbol Alts? I told you when they were at like eight bucks, I'm like, "Guys, this company's going to go BK because they're supposedly going to be a treasury company for essentially exit liquidity on these WLFI tokens." But 8 N bucks, I said, "Get out of this stock.
It's going to crash." And look what's happened over the last few weeks. There it is. Got up to $10.90. comes almost all the way down to my support line, which is right here at zero. All of this is a tool to cash people out who are investing in Donald Trump's tokens, but it's also a way to get close to Donald Trump and to get what you want.
So, what's going on here? Well, Trump gets a $500 million deal. Trump gets inaugurated. All of a sudden, you get Stargate announced, $500 billion AI venture. Then Donald Trump has a dinner and the UAE pledges $1.4 trillion dollars in investments into the United States. Conveniently, exactly what Open AI needs.
It's not a big circle. Don't worry. It's exactly a big circle. Got to get drink the juju. It'll all make sense. And then, oh, UAE gets what they want. Now, even though they're still waiting for the export licenses on this, Trump announces a chip deal with them that we're going to send them 500,000 of our best AI chips.
And then, conveniently, that same month in May after you have Donald Trump get $500 million from the UAE, the UAE decides, oh, you know what? Um, we want to invest in Binance because our friend CZ is really friendly to us. Why don't we invest in Binance using the WLF stable coin? And oh, I know. Maybe after we use Trump's stable coin, we'll convince Trump that CZ is a good guy cuz you know, we're investing in the United States and CZ and Trump will just pardon him.
Oh, and then that's exactly what happened. Trump pardons him. It's totally not rigged at all. It doesn't by any means come after the UAE or Qatar invested $ 1.5 billion dollars into Jared Kushner's fund who happens to be really close to the Israeli government and just happens to be the husband of Ivanka Trump who happens to be Donald Trump's daughter.
Crazy. And Steve Witkoff, I mean, it's not like he's getting any money out of this, is he? Oh, wait, no. He's getting $31 million that are going from the UAE to Steve Whit's affiliated entities. No, it's it's not corrupt, folks. It's not. It's just trying to stimulate. That's all we're trying to do.
We are going to direct the economy to stimulate this circle, the UAE. You see him right here? Stimulus. That's all it is to keep the Ponzi going. And so, again, doesn't mean we're going to fall off a cliff tomorrow, but it's starting to get a little funky. This is why a lot of people are talking about, hm, if the Democrats win the House and the Senate, we might be looking at impeachment again.
But that's not me saying that. That's other people saying that. That's for the next two years. We don't have to worry about that for about well 11 months. Instead, now people are wondering, "All right, Kevin, what's going on with that UAE stimulus?" Because if that stimulus doesn't come through, then the cycle slows down, right?
[snorts] Yeah. that UA deal UAE deal is held up by the commerce department right now because they're waiting for an export license. Jensen has actually expressed that he's frustrated that this very deal is held up. The UAE deal is being called quote stuck in neutral per the Wall Street Journal. And it's apparently Howard Lutnik who is holding up the Commerce Department's approval of the UAE deal until they complete more investments.
Complete what investments? their investments into Donald Trump. They did they not pay him all the way? The check not clear? I don't know. But understand that as this slows, OpenAI right here has cornered 40% of the memory supply. They're not just ordering finished RAM, they're also ordering silicon wafers.
So global DRAM wafer production is usually 2.2 to 2.3 million units per year. OpenAI wants 900k of them. Now, maybe there could be something that keeps this cycle going, and there is. It's called private credit. But the problem is all private credit stocks are under pressure. You can see that on screen right here.
Look at this. As of the as of January 2026, Blackstone's down month. These are month-to-ate returns. Blackstone's down 72, KKR down 105, Apollo's down 85, uh Aries is down 95, all down. So, private credit from a public point of view is already slowing down. Black Rockck says it marked down its AUM due to private debt exposure.
Investors pulled 15.4% of assets out of Blue Owl. Autonomous research suggests that maybe the redemptions they've been getting would slow down in the, you know, after December, but no, they didn't. The outflows continued into January. So, the private credit stimulus is on ice. Nvidia's money is on ice, or at least slowing.
The UAE deal is on ice. There are a lot of potential risk factors here that make chips a dangerous play right now. Now, this is not to say that you need to run for the exits. I mean, after all, yield spreads, you know, between highrade and low grade, they're still really tight. Now, one of the reasons people say that these spreads are tight and why Oracle, for example, keeps getting people to buy its bonds is because of how Wall Street works.
Fund managers who manage money in high yield funds need to put the money to work somewhere. They don't really care if it goes up or down because if it goes down, the whole economy is going down. It doesn't matter anyway. But in the meantime, they get their feet. Now, I'm not trying to sound jaded, but usually when we have this latestage compression where all of a sudden people are buying junk bonds, it's not because they don't see risk, but it's because there's nowhere else to put the money and they don't want to be sitting on cash because then they won't earn their fee.
So, we're actually seeing is a liquidity mirage. This Jim Kramer, oh wow, this is oversubscribed. This isn't a sign of a healthy market. Not in the face of everything else that's going on. Private credit selling off, a slowdown at the UAE, a slowdown in private credit. Well, I said that already. A slowdown at Nvidia.
All of these are red flags. And so maybe it's no surprise that insider selling is actually accelerating. Corporate Insider sale to buy ratio is at the highest level. The ratio it's at the highest level we've seen in 5 years. Which means for every $1 somebody buys in the stock market, insiders are selling $4.80.
And these are deemed to be people with the best visibility into their companies. Why are they dumping out at the fastest pace that we've seen since 2021? Maybe, just maybe, they know something. and maybe we're picking up on some of the breadcrumbs. So, if you want more breadcrumbs, make sure t or uh Twitter X, Realme Kevin.
On Instagram or uh actually on X, I'm real Kevin. And on Instagram, I'm Meet Kevin. I post updates there. I post stories of the family or my vacations or other ideas or opinions that I have before I get the videos out. So, you'd like more, go follow me at those platforms. I post there almost every single day. .
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