저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
사모신용 부실과 AI 도입률 정체가 맞물린 '둠 루프' 위험을 경고. MS는 OpenAI 매출 집중(RPO 40%)과 Copilot 갱신 리스크로 하락 전망, Meta는 광고 전환율 개선으로 상대적 우위 주장. 대형 AI 기업들의 자금 수혈(OpenAI 1000억달러 라운드, XAI-Tesla/SpaceX 연계)이 취약성의 신호라고 해석. 전반적으로 시장 조정 경계 및 현금 비중 확대 권고.
다듬은 글
There is a critical chart that suggests our economy might be collapsing actively and the suits on Wall Street are deathly afraid about you finding out about these charts. Starting with this one right here, you've got to know about the details of exactly what's going on here because it's going to make sense of everything for you.
This might be the most important video we make on the channel this year. Hey everyone, me Kevin here. If you're wondering how to combine all of the pain that happened with not only Microsoft getting shellacked by 10% today, which is something you would really only find during like a COVID crash or like a great recession style crash, Microsoft massive company 10% decline taking the entire software stack with it.
Mind you, you look at Service Now or Snowflake or really any other kind of software company today, absolute shellacking. What happened and why are these companies getting beat up? What does it have to do with this chart? And how does all of it linked together with private credit and ironically a company like Facebook, you know, Meta going up 10% today?
Well, this chart explains all of it and we're going to link everything together and break it down for you in this video. So, subscribe to the channel, buckle up, and let's get into it. First, we have to start with the baseline of what has been funding the core of our economic growth over the last few years.
We know that the normal everyday consumer isn't benefiting from the best economic data ever. As Donald Trump tells us, those are the headline numbers that are really boosted by artificial intelligence. And a lot of that spending is driven by private credit. Private credit, we know has started to roll over, but so far Wall Street banks are telling us, "Guys, don't worry.
It's these are just individual little frauds. It's all fine." And maybe that's true. Maybe everything is fine. I mean, quick recap. The same day Charlie Kirk died, it's terrible. We ended up having collapse. Oh, but they were spreadsheet fraudsters. 3 weeks after that, First Brands and auto, you know, an auto provider of things like windshield wipers and auto parts collapsed just a few weeks later.
And then now they're indicting the founder as of today for fraud. So, I guess maybe that was just fraud, too. And then I guess the collapse of Sonder Homes or Spirit or Renovo Home Loans or many other companies including Black Rockck's very own private credit fund that got written down 19% or oh I I don't know maybe Apollo writing down $170 million of private credit to zero literally 2 days ago.
May maybe all of that is just idiosyncratic, which you know is a really fancy way of saying, "Oh, well, those are just unique to their own little companies." But you can't really say idiosyncratic and believe it without thinking idiot if you believe it. There's something else going on here. And so when PIMCO gives us a warning like this, a firm that manages $2.3 trillion.
$2.3 trillion. This is like a JP Morgan size of company. When they give us a warning and start saying things like, "Hey, um, we might actually have serious problems here that people aren't paying attention to." It's often times not just time to start paying attention, but often already too late. Because a lot of these big firms, they don't want to say things are bad because then things get worse.
But they do eventually want to tell you things are bad because that way they can tell you they told you so. It's Ca so they get sued less. Anyway, maybe I'm just jaded, you know. Call me call meet Kevin that jaded guy on YouTube. Anyway, look at this. Private credits hidden hazards. PIMCO president warns investors are turning a blind eye to mounting risks as problems from loans from the zero rate era come due.
This is really a fancy way of saying there's refinancing risk and a lot of these private credit funds have been throwing money at artificial intelligence. That's what we're about to hit. That's why there's a warning about sector concentration. It's artificial intelligence. And then of course we get limited disclosure, limited marktomarkets, right?
We saw Blue Owl is seeing this exodus of investors. Blue Owl is a company that's throwing money at Meta's data centers for them. They're taking on the debt risk financing these data centers and artificial intelligence expansions and people are fleeing them. I multiple times a day I feel like I'm seeing articles about Blue Owl investors trying to bail out to whatever limit they can get out.
uh and that they are seeing the largest exodus that we have seen since really the creation of private credit in this last boom since the great financial crisis. It's a problem. But what does all of that have to do with those original charts? That first blue chart I showed you showing this sort of peeking out line.
Well, frankly, everything here it is. AI or artificial intelligence adoption rates have started to flatten out across all firm sizes. So this on the left side here on the Y ais shows you the percentage of new firms entering into artificial intelligence. So in other words, if you're a firm and you're like, "All right, boys and girls, it's finally time to pick up, you know, tighten our boots or tighten the belts a little bit and strap the boots on and and adopt this AI thing." You know, companies were growing.
We saw a lot of this since the GPT moment and more and more companies are like all right it's finally time to adopt AI that period of time has now started to shrink or see fewer companies making those decisions this means the aggregate or total number of companies has started to flatline because you're getting fewer companies coming in saying we need to adopt AI so if you take a look at this artificial intelligence adoption rates have started to flatten out across all firm sizes What you find is really an S-curve here.
GPT moment. The early easy adopters kind of like the first people who adopt full self-driving like me in 2017 making YouTube videos. Guys, I'm on autopilot on the highway. This is the coolest thing since sliced bread. Leave me a comment if you were watching my videos back then. But anyway, now you go through this era of early adopters to euphoria where a lot of people are adopting and then you get the slowdown period where you got half of companies to adopt and the other half are like, "Ah, AI hallucinates too much or AI sucks anyway.
We don't need to use that crap anyway." Right? Those are the hard ones to get. That's like getting grandpa to get into a self-driving car. Okay? It's going to take a lot more effort to get these folks to adopt artificial intelligence. This is a massive problem because all of a sudden when artificial intelligence adoption rates flatten out, what does it mean for the entire sector of AI which is boosting our entire economy which is boosting private credit?
Well, it potentially means that AI investment might start petering out. And if AI investment starts looking like it's going to peter out, then private credit is going to start petering out. And if private credit starts petering out, then AI investment continues to peter out. It's a doom loop. When and it doesn't matter which one came first, the chicken or the egg in this case, private credit petering out or AI petering out.
Now, you could have a private credit crisis that starts making funding harder for AI, even though we're still trying to boom in AI, and you still go down because it's a doom loop. When one fails, private credit or AI, doesn't matter which one starts. When one starts faltering, they both start faltering.
And that's when you start seeing what I call bailins from companies like Nvidia, which you're going to see in this video. Companies to OpenAI or XAI, which you're also going to see in this video, then you start really scratching your head going, "Uh-oh, what's going on here?" So it's not just these charts though.
Take a look at this. Those were firmwide charts. AI adoption though for generative artificial intelligence work at work essentially right has flatlined. This chart goes all the way back to August of 2024. And you can see the lines for share using Gen AI use Gen AI last week use Genai Gen AI every day last week have flatlined.
So, it's not like the people who were using it just once a week all of a sudden are using it every day last week or the people who are using Gen AI are all of a sudden also using it last week. We're not really seeing a movement there. We're seeing flatlining. Flatlining is bad. Kind of like you go into a hospital, THEY'RE LIKE, "OH, FLATLINING.
CRASH CARD. HE'S CRASHING." The crash car come in. The defibrillator comes clear. Kind of trying to, you know, get it up again. Okay. we're trying to, you know, sometimes people have a hard time or industries have a hard time getting it up and then we got to help them out a little bit and then hopefully everything's fine or it's a sign of a larger problem.
And that's the problem here is if you go to the very next slide, you can see how has your firm's use of artificial intelligence affected your firm. And well, you could see that the vast majority of companies here about 69% report no change. Otherwise, you've got really nominal responses. You've got just as many people saying that artificial intelligence has essentially combined here either decreased their productivity by 1 to 5% or more than 5%.
If you combine those together you're roughly equaling the increase of more than 5% group over here. Uh and then of course you do have this increase of 1 to 5% but you know reporting companies that's really only somewhere between 15 to 25%. So in other words, this bucket right here on net is the bucket that's really driving artificial intelligence.
Otherwise, a lot of people are reporting, I don't know, it helps a little bit, but is it really at that level where it's doing as much as we're being promised? Maybe not. Now, I personally think we're in myself, my real estate startup, we're somewhere over here in this high value ad task and and we're seeing massive productivity, but we also study and work artificial intelligence on a daily basis.
I mean, after all, we're a s a service startup. same company. I just invested another million dollars of my personal money on my birthday just yesterday into my own real estate intelligence software intelligence company because we're looking going, "Wow, we have a really bright future." That's our opinion, right?
This isn't a solicitation for you. If you want to invest in that, go to houseack.com, but read the offering circular. This is just a way of saying I'm really optimistic about what we're seeing with artificial intelligence, but that's not the point of this video. See, I could be really optimistic about what we're doing with artificial intelligence, but that doesn't matter for private credit or all the companies taking on debt.
We don't take on debt. We don't care. But all the other companies taking on debt and relying on private credit, they need everyone to be like, "Oh my gosh, I got to have more AI." And it's like, you go to, you know, you go to Cold Stone, you're like, "I got to have it." That's what companies like Microsoft rely on.
And in a moment, you're going to see the difference between Microsoft and artificial intelligence or and Meta. And this is actually a really critical distinction that could also help your investing future. So, pay attention to this distinction because it's going to be huge. Now, something else that could also help your investing future is well, this this is a exact print up of our alpha report that I sent out this morning about 30 minutes before the market opened up.
And I want to show you this because you could learn something from this alpha report. And then we're going to show you actual statistics. Just know if you want to get this alpha report yourself, I'm making a very special because of this video and the shellacking that just happened extension of our coupon code bday at meet kevin.com to Friday at 11:59 p.m.
Yesterday was my birthday. We had a schlacking in markets today as I went on vacation. So, we're going to extend that coupon code to 11:59 p.m. and then there's going to be a big price increase on the product. So, if you want to get lifetime access for these alpha reports I send every day the market is open, check it out at mekevin.com.
But let's take a look at the insights on the alpha report this morning exactly the way I posted it. There it is. 129 2026 alpha report. I set this at about 6 a.m. this morning. I wrote uh yesterday bleed out towards Powell. Nailed it. Hopefully you were able to stay safe because we talked about all that yesterday.
It was just a sort of a quick recap like what did we get right, what did we get wrong from the day before. critical today. I wrote, "The more I study Microsoft, the more pissed I get. 7 billion of their net income came from OpenAI as a liquidation value adjustment." H over 40% of their RPOS, we'll talk about that in just a moment, are just from OpenAI.
More the more exposure companies have to OpenAI, the riskier they are. Meta does not have this issue. who I wrote and so I wrote therefore I also said by the way Tesla is gutting itself of what it's done well to fund the unknown and I had some comments about this so I wrote that my opinion today was the move was the following watch the first 5 to 15 minutes if Microsoft tanks in the first 5 minutes which has more risk than Tesla we're probably going down to 428 which if you look at the chart is exactly what happened today.
I forecast that this will though lead Microsoft to go down to under $400 by midFebruary. Giving away some alpha here. I also wrote in this case, Oracle has more downside and the upside on chip plays stays limited, which Oracle sold off as much as 5 to 6% intraday and then all of a sudden the chip plays, they were pretty flat and stable, but again upside capped just like what we wrote.
And so my warning was if institutions are selling Microsoft, we're bearish the Q's today. We were green when I wrote this on the cues when I wrote this report and we tanked. I wrote that Tesla if the Q's go down might follow Microsoft down and it did. I do also write that this is not trying to be bearish on the entire economy.
If OpenAI craters, that's bad. We're far from that at this point. But we've got to be watchful. And the watchfulness is what I want to show you in this video because after this alpha report released, we got these charts from Apollo Credit. Now, why is that interesting? Apollo Credit is literally the firm that just wrote down over $und00 million of private credit losses, writing over $und00 million down to zero because of artificial intelligence and private credit.
But that's interesting because they're also the ones putting together these charts. Well, some of them and this data, which then makes me wonder, maybe they're trying to secretly let us on to something. So, here's another chart from Apollo. Are productivity gains flattening? Percent of hours saved as a share of hours worked in the previous week.
In November of 2024, we thought we were saving about 1.4 hours per week. Then we went to 1.6. Then we went to 1.8, now 1.7. The gains have stopped and we're now actively in reversal. Now, this is survey data, so it could be unreliable, but Microsoft's data is actually proving the point. In fact, we reported this on Microsoft in the fourth quarter that Microsoft had some engineers leak that Microsoft was starting to lower sales targets for some of their generic artificial intelligence agents products.
And see, if generic artificial intelligence agents were really capable of replacing enterprise software, that would be really great for Microsoft. But they had to lower their quotas cuz they can't get people to stick. This was an early warning sign that there were problems at Microsoft. Another problem about the entire artificial intelligence stack, unfortunately, is that companies like Microsoft and Meta keep blowing more and more money on artificial intelligence.
Facebook, for example, Meta just announced that they're spending 13% more in capex in 2026 for artificial intelligence than we thought they were going to. We thought they were going to spend about $110 billion this year. They're actually going to spend somewhere between well midpoint somewhere around $125 billion.
And there's an upside part to that range too, which is wild. But if you look at this chart, you can see the capex as a percentage of GDP today is actually way higher, the yellow bar, than what we saw in the 2000.com bubble of telecom companies. Oops. It means this spending we're doing is even more drunk and loony than compared to the.com bubble which is somewhat scary.
So let's understand why Kevin is Meta doing so well, Microsoft doing so poorly and what does all this have to do with OpenAI and XAI? Ah well here you go. Microsoft told us the following. Microsoft in their earnings told us that gaming, search and advertisements were soft. Those are core business items that aren't related to artificial intelligence.
Now, co-pilot seat was seat growth was great, up 160% year-over-year. But the problem is, remember the charts earlier where we see 69 67ish% of people aren't seeing productivity from artificial intelligence at work. That's not good for more co-pilot adoption, especially as people think that companies like Moltbot, formerly Claudebot or Anthropic and their actual Cloud product are kind of kicking co-pilot's butt.
You know, you open up claude.com now, they try to give you like, use Claude in Excel, basically saying don't pay Microsoft, pay us instead. Now, that could be idiosyncratic or there are risks to the entire industry. And you might have a feeling of where I'm going here. But remember this for a moment.
Microsoft is a little exposed. When I say a little, I should be saying a lot because co-pilot requires that users sign up for the product and renew the product. Microsoft signs a lot of three-year deals, which means we're about to hit a massive renewal cycle for enterprise co-pilot adoption in 2026 and 2027, which is 3 years after 2023 GPT release uh and integration into Copilot and 2024 euphoric ramp.
And if companies aren't reporting productivity gains from artificial intelligence, we have a really big problem, especially compared to other businesses that don't rely on that kind of adoption. Now, we'll talk meta, but before we do, what's the nail in the coffin for Microsoft when it comes to artificial intelligence potentially not being as productive as researchers are finding for the vast majority of people?
Again, I find AI productive. Maybe you do as well, but maybe we're unique and and and we forget that. Who knows? But take a look at this. Microsoft tells us they have $625 billion of remaining performance obligations. Of those, 40% are open AI. $250 billion of revenue Microsoft is telling us there is they're going to get is coming directly from Open AI.
only $30 billion is coming from Anthropic and 345 billion is coming from other Azure commitments. This is actually a real problem for Microsoft because Microsoft is telling us, oh well the, you know, the reason things slow down is because we just don't have a place to put all these server chips. Uh, and because we're not able to put all these server chips everywhere.
Well, I mean, that's why, you know, we can't plug them in. That's why Azure is growing slower. And and if we actually had a place to put all these chips, we'd be able to grow quicker. So, we're just running out of room to pull out all the chips, right? But your RPO concentration used to be massively diversified to thousands of different countries or companies around the world.
Now, 40% is in the hands of just one company, Open AI. Now, why is that a problem? Well, it's a problem because OpenAI, we know this, we've been covering this on the channel regularly. OpenAI burns money hand over fist. Open AAI is a company that isn't expected to actually generate a profit likely until 2030, at least according to some researchers.
Some say, "Oh, no, they'll be profitable sooner. They'll be profitable maybe in uh 2029, but certainly not until then." Okay. Either way, this is problematic because it means that OpenAI needs money to actually be able to pay Microsoft. But that cycle creates issues of well perpetual hopes that AI would actually be useful for people.
And as a result, to try to keep these hopes going, we're seeing our first bailin. Take a look on screen here. We are seeing current talks of a $100 billion mega round, the biggest AI fund raise in history for Open AI. Amazon in talks to invest it uh invest up to $50 billion into OpenAI. Soft Bank up to $30 billion.
Nvidia up to $30 billion. Microsoft somewhere around $10 billion in addition to pump up OpenAI to give them cash to keep the cycle of spending going even though we're seeing productivity slow down. Now this is somewhat problematic because the same thing is happening at companies that provide services to OpenAI like Coreef.
Think about this for a moment. OpenAI is burning money like crazy, not seeing the enhancements we're hoping to see at Microsoft. So, both of them are suffering. And so, it's no surprise that a data center company or a Neocloud like Cororeweave is also seeing problems. Coreweave is a company that saw its stock drop over 64% at a low in December of 2025.
Now, it's since recovered a little bit, but you should ask yourself, why did Cororeweave recover a little bit? Watch this. Coreweave recovered in December because of the following. On December, well, in January, actually. On December 31st, Cororeweave is on fumes for cash. I wrote on X, you can follow me there at Realme Kevin or on Instagram at me Kevin.
I post there pretty much daily. Take a look at this. Corre is on fumes for cash and announces new loan terms that allow unlimited equity cures for any failure to satisfy debt service. In other words, Cororeweave is so badly running out of money trying to provide service to companies like OpenAI so they can keep paying Microsoft that they're begging the lenders to give them exceptions.
And they're basically saying, "Hey, you know, if if we could get somebody to bail us out or bail us in by investing more money into us, is it okay if you know, we screw up some of our loan terms?" And the banks are like, "Well, if we say no, we're screwed anyway, so yeah, I I guess it's okay." And so what happens just three and a half weeks later on January 26th, Nvidia invests $2 billion into Core at $87 per share to prop up Cororeweave.
Nothing to see here. Just like the private credit issues. It's all idiosyncratic. It's all just these individual companies. They had little hiccups. You know, Cory had trouble pouring concrete in Texas cuz, you know, it got a little cold and a little rainy. So, so they didn't want to pour the concrete, you know?
I mean, come on. And if they poured the concrete, then Microsoft could have plugged in the GPUs and then Nvidia wouldn't have as many GPUs in inventory and it would all be fine. But see, that's what people, much like a perpetual motion machine, get wrong about artificial intelligence. Take a look on screen here.
Artificial intelligence is this promise of perpetual motion, or at least the investments that we're seeing. This, hey, Nvidia is going to generate chips. Microsoft is going to plug them in. OpenAI is going to do the inference for us and the training for us and and Corewave is going to help hold some of these chips, whatever, right?
They all have their different ser services and purposes that they serve. You know, Azure over at Microsoft or Coreweave providing the the leasing of the GPUs or the renting out or the sale of whatever, right? The idea is that as long as the money keeps flowing, it's fine. But the thing that people forget in this infinite money loop is perpetual motion doesn't exist.
If you create a loop of water, let's say, and you're like, "Oh, I could have energy forever. I've solved perpetual motion." Everybody's thought about that as a kid, like, "Why wouldn't this work?" Well, it's because there's this thing called friction. Friction kills motion. Nvidia throws cash at companies like OpenAI that are burning.
I mean, this here says $5 billion per year. That's a dated number. They're currently probably burning somewhere between 19 to 48 billion per year. But we don't have that full color because well it's a private company and you know that's that's hidden. That's a lack of disclosure like what PIMCO warned about.
Uh you know Microsoft isn't seeing a lot of ROI for like 67% of their users on C-pilot. At least that's what firms are saying per Apollo and Coreweave can't even pay their freaking debts. So they're breaching their covenants. All this stuff creates cash burn, lower adoption, funding stress, and loss.
Eventually, the perpetual motion machine stops. And why? Because friction always wins. Circular funding schemes don't work. Because in the long term, cash burn always takes over and bankruptcy ensues. It's not good. The only question is when does the music stop? Right? Like I wrote in my alpha report.
Remember you can get that at me.com. Use that extension code. When does it stop or where do you go in the meantime? Do you just say who cares? Let's go somewhere else in the meantime. We're going to talk about that somewhere else and Meta and some other stocks in just a moment. But the fact that you have to remember is this isn't just open AI.
This is also Elon Musk's XAI. Take a look at what I call virus takeover stage one. XAI has drained capital from all of these different companies. Black Rockck, Fidelity, they've taken the Twitter revenue, Cisco, Valor, A16, Andre Snor, uh Tesla, they've taken $2 billion from. They've taken money from SpaceX.
They've taken money from Nvidia. They've taken money from a lot of different companies to fund Elon Musk's version of GPT. That's stage one is suck in all this money because just like OpenAI, they got to keep sucking in money to keep this cycle going. Got to use nice words here. But what comes after this sort of feeding frenzy where, you know, they get two billion, then 20 billion, then 10, then six, then six, now you know, or originally 135.
I read this upside down. $135 million originally, then six, then six, then 10, then 20, then two from Tesla, right? All of this, oh, SpaceX should frankly be on here as well. All of this money flowing into XAI for a money losing business to keep artificial intelligence propped up so Elon can win his personal vendetta against Sam Alman.
But what happens next? Well, this tells you how bad the bailin is. Not only do we have a hundred billion dollars potentially getting raised to bail in OpenAI where existing investors are throwing in more money going, "Oh no, crap. We need to save this and keep the cycle going." Elon's doing the same thing, but Elon hasn't made as many friends as Sam Alman.
So Elon gets a bailin from himself. Elon at XAI calls up Elon at Tesla. Hey yo, I need two bill. How are we going to do it? Oh, uh the more shareholders voted no uh on on on acquiring XAI shares if we include the abstensions. Uh well, let's just let's just redefine it. Let's not count the abstensions as nos and let's just count the yes votes uh and we'll call it a pact.
Can I get my two $2 billion now? Yeah, sure. Here's a $2 billion. So Elon negotiates with himself to get money from Tesla. Even though the normal way the Tesla board decides, you know, when when you count abstensions, it's voted as or it's counted as a no where we don't want to invest in XAI. That's the normal way.
Even though that normal way says no, Tesla's not going to invest in XAI. Now you got Elon going, oh guys, well, you know, since the vast majority of you wanted to invest in XAI, we're going to do it cuz he needs the money. But that's not enough. So then Elon's got to pick up the phone again and go, "Hey Elon, at Spec Space SpaceX, yeah.
Uh, can we merge uh into SpaceX because you're going to IPO and that's going to give us public liquidity for this massive money losing business." So what do we have here? Stage two, the infection spreads. The parasite breaches the crown jewel. XAI, the money destroying virus, gets into SpaceX. SpaceX, a company that generates profitability from Starlink, over $20 billion in government contracts.
You've got billions of dollars in space launches, revenue that's exploded from some of their older levels, including their valuation that's exploded. I'm a venture capital investor in SpaceX. You know, our venture capital firm is probably up three plus three 3 to 4x on our SpaceX investment. So, don't get me wrong, I love SpaceX, but I don't like this money destroying virus potentially coming in to screw up the SpaceX IPO.
But that's what's happening. Why? Because if it doesn't happen, the virus is going to self-destruct. It needs another host to suck money from. So, why not attach itself to a business that has been built for 23 years and generated over $800 billion of market cap, potentially as much as $ 1.5 trillion.
Why not attach yourself and leech from that? That's exactly what Elon is doing. And so this is where when we broadly look at what's going on in the artificial intelligence space, we should be really concerned. And in my opinion, a lot of companies with exposure to artificial intelligence seats, this would be uh like a co-pilot where you've got essentially a wrapper around some kind of AI product, are potentially facing really big renewal risks.
Now, I do think a lot of babies are getting taken out with the bathwater here. Like Service Now's numbers are pretty good. UiPath is a fantastic example of a company that's getting absolutely battered because of this idea that you know any company that sells seats even like an Adobe is going to get destroyed by artificial intelligence.
You know UiPath is an interesting one. I mean just look on screen here. UiPath, in my opinion, has this unique moat because it's something that like a moltbot can't compete with because they provide to about 900 enterprise customers governance, audit trails, compliance, reliability. They're used in healthcare, HIPPO regulations, financial services, government, insurance, consulting.
You got to have accuracy. So, UiPath is actually a really cheap play, but it's probably at risk of more downside because, well, frankly, right now everybody's selling everything software. And so, that brings us to Meta. Is Meta potentially a better play in this environment? And why is Meta doing so well?
Well, as we've been sort of hinting from the beginning of the video, Meta is very different from Microsoft. Look at this. Meta, according to JP Morgan, is likely to see their revenue grow 30%. And what's unique about Meta's revenue is they're not actively relying on you renewing your co-pilot subscription.
Meta makes money from you enjoying content on Instagram or Facebook, reels, stories, whatever. the more they can convert you to buy stuff by feeding you what you want to see using the benefits of artificial intelligence by feeding you the right stories, the right posts to keep you on the platform, by feeding you the right ads to convert you more likely, which is exactly what's happening.
Their conversion rates at different parts of the business are all skyrocketing anywhere on the low side of 3% increases in conversion rates year-over-year to as high as 24% increases in conversion rates. Watch time year-over-year is up 30% at Meta. This is a business that has figured out how to keep you glued on the platform, whether it's Instagram or Facebook.
Same's probably said about Tik Tok, though. You know, you got some questions there. I guess now we're censoring Epstein and everything related to Epstein because that doesn't align with the Trump administration, but whatever. Trump administration also wants everybody's retirement account to throw money into private credit because the suits on Wall Street need some money.
Anyway, knock on wood. we don't never get censored over here on YouTube. So, we can keep freely talking about uh these these sort of topics. But Meta is an interesting one because AI enhances Meta's existing revenue without requiring seats or subscriptions or new adoption. They just keep showing stuff to people on that that are vertically scrolling and buying stuff, which is basically every single consumer in America.
Users don't have to learn artificial intelligence or how to use C-Pilot or how to use all the features in GPT. It doesn't matter. There's no renewal risk either because advertisers pay for results, not seats. And there's really just this transactional, hey, people are getting impressions and hopefully they're clicking and buying our product.
This is a totally different business. And for well, frankly months, I've been saying that Meta looks pretty dang cheap. And so to me, it's not a horrible surprise that Meta had this very nice skyrocket. and it's a stock that we've been talking about quite a while uh on the channel and in the course member live streams.
But all of this together creates a really interesting bottom line. Economically, aggregate data tells us the economy is doing fine. But if private credit continues to slow down, then the whole AI ponzi flows, you know, it all flows down. It all cycles down into the toilet. We're going to keep getting little adrenaline shots.
That's what we're getting right now. Okay. This hundred billion dollars to OpenAI adrenaline shot. The money to XAI that Tesla gave them uh or you know is going to potentially come from the IPO. Little adrenaline shots. But those adrenaline shots won't last forever. And that's exactly why you've got to be cautious in this market.
Educate yourself on a daily basis. Diversify. Increase cash. Ignore the people like, "Oh, but Kevin, the dollar is losing value. If you have cash, you're losing value." No, no, no. That's foreign exchange. That matters if you go, you know, buy stuff from Europe or you're going to go fly to Europe on a vacation.
Otherwise, cash is a call option on everything. And if your cash is yielding 3, four, 5% or whatever, then you have optionality above the rate of inflation anyway. So, it's really less of a problem. Anyway, if you like this presentation, consider what we do over at meetke.com. Join that alpha report.
We've extended that to 11:59 tomorrow. If you want, you can bundle it up with the real estate artificial intelligence that we do over at househack.com. I'm going to go enjoy my vacation and hopefully tomorrow we get a little bit of a rebound in markets so cooler heads can prevail. Otherwise, the carry trade on wide is about to accelerate.
Comments 0