저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연속된 '유노 리버스'처럼 시장이 반등하다 되밀리는 패턴이 반복되며, 헤지펀드 과다 레버리지(재담보 이용, 8~20배)가 디레버리징을 촉발하고 있다고 주장. 대부분 종목이 동반 매도되는 디레버리징 국면으로 보며, 현 하락은 레버리지 청산 성격이라 종목 펀더멘털 문제가 아니라고 해석. 테슬라(700 이하), 엔드페이즈(150 이하), 캐누(반등 플레이) 등을 저평가로 언급하며 추가 매수 의사 표명. 시청자에게는 마진 축소를 권고.
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well everyone meet kevin here it happened again mark you pulled another uno reverse card on us that's two in a row that's kind of as if we've got like a double uno reverse going on or something here but it's not like we're getting the reverse back in our favor or anything no no no it just the same crap happened to us twice market goes up twice yay market's going up nope just kidding and then same thing this morning this is what happened thursday market goes up oh nope just kidding this is despite the fact that this morning goldman sachs via the bloomberg terminal says oh higher rates are priced in or good we don't have to worry anymore folks i think this archagos and this is just my speculation here but i think this arcade goes family fund disaster where this family fund ended up having not just and when i say family fund basically think hedge fund with more secrecy rules they had 8 to 20 x leverage by rehypothecating the same collateral i would not be surprised if we have a lot more leverage issues on wall street than we even realized today quick explanation as to what that means so you go to a bank and you're like yo i want to buy a house i got this uh hundred thousand dollars to use as a down payment usually when you buy a house i mean this is how it would work you would put your hundred thousand dollars into an escrow company the lender the bank would look and go ah okay you got your hundred thousand dollars there okay now we will give you the other nine hundred thousand dollars so you could do ten percent down on your million dollar house let's say hey that's normally how it works but because these private hedge fund family fund bull crap secrecy rules basically this uh arcade goes dude is able to go hey um and put 10 down on this house over here except instead of a house it's you know contracts on stocks uh which we've explained in a different video we're not going to re-explain it here uh you could look that one up just type into youtube meet kevin uh here youtube.com meet kevin hedge fund uh leverage your margin meet kevin hedge fund margin and uh yeah yeah will the hedge fund melt down crash markets okay so if you want an explanation in terms of what kind of derivatives they were buying that's a good one okay so watch that one but this is kind of part two to that uh and the reason it's part two is because we explained what this guy was doing let's go back to this house example you take a hundred thousand dollars with these secrecy rules you're like yeah yeah yeah this hundred thousand dollars is my collateral let me borrow 3x to go buy stocks totally normal okay no problem you you got your hundred thousand dollars no problem here we got three hundred thousand dollars we can play with now except in this case instead of being t's two billion dollars and six billion dollars in in leverage that he's basically able to use in total but now this company goes around to all the different banks does the same thing there's no escrow company because there are privacy rules there's no there's no rule that says okay well you've got to take your collateral and park it over here no no you just keep your collateral well now he's able to use that same collateral for multiple different banks potentially five to six different banks and leverage up as high as 8 to 20 times on his bets well the market doesn't have to go down a lot for you to get screwed in that kind of scenario look if you've got a hundred percent leverage on let's say tesla stock and it goes down around 35 percent you're probably gonna get a margin call if you got eight to twenty times leverage on something the market probably only has to go down like five to eight percent for you to start bleeding and maybe ten percent for you to start getting liquidated and that's kind of all it took with this hedge fund and so what does this have to do with now well folks let's get your hit points up basically and yeah that's actually kind of what i mean i believe that it's possible a lot of hedgies are using way more leverage than they should be and potentially the reason we keep seeing these uno reverse the the uno reverse is these false starts in basically a stock recovery after this six month crash is because every time stocks go up hedge funds realize you know what this is a good time to rebalance pay off some more debt i don't know i could be wrong but the problem i'm seeing is is we don't have a very clear rotation anymore it used to be you know initially the first three weeks it was like oh just plow money into recovery stocks sell tech really but wait a minute dave and buster's is down you've got redfin down you've got end phase down enfie's not tech you've got uh other companies over here like cheesecake two percent down the simon property group's down you've got nordstroms that's down macy's that's down gap that's down and these are mixed in here with airbnb and darden uh and of course the uh you know end phase and zom and there goes canoe 10 percent you know here's uh etsy 5.3 percent here's matterport like it almost doesn't make sense like wayfair was actually one of the companies that was holding up pretty strongly while tech was selling off or the furniture companies buying no no literally every stock is going through its sell-off period every stock is almost going through its initial round here of deleveraging which is kind of interesting because it really echoes what ray dalio talks about in this potential great deleveraging coming personally i think this early round of d leveraging that i think we're seeing with the weenie babies basically like oh my gosh we got a lot of margin too we don't want to be in our cages let's sell and sell let's cover a little bit and let's reduce our risk a little bit at higher valuations i wouldn't be surprised if that's exactly what's happening now we don't know with certainty and we probably won't know uh for for weeks or potentially even months until we get some more clarity why is all of this volatility happening but the money's not clearly going from one place to another anymore i think it's it's too simple to be able to say oh well kevin i mean it's going from the airlines today to the cruise lines today well the problem is when airline shares go down like when a stock goes from a hundred dollars to let's say eighty dollars and hedge funds are like oh we should rotate over to cruise lines it's not like they've got to pocket that twenty dollars if people stop wanting to buy shares at a certain price that money just instantly evaporates like that's the interesting about or interesting thing about stocks i mean ask yourself this why is it that a billionaire can be created because they own let's say a million dollars worth of stock uh in their company and one day it's worth ten dollars so you know they're a 10 millionaire and the next day every share is worth a thousand dollars because they ipo'd like literally nothing really changed there jerome powell didn't come in and print the money printer just all of a sudden because that company is now publicly trading that person shares that we're worth a dollar each are now worth a thousand dollars each that's literally money created out of thin air that same thing happens in reverse so i don't necessarily think this is the hedge funds and the weenie babies here winning i don't think they're winning right now i think they're they're feeling the same pain that a lot of us are feeling in the market the difference is i think they're over leveraged and they have to sell this is why we saw people like chamath liquidate virgin galactic you think after coming up on stage and telling everybody how great and when i say stage the public domain telling everybody how great virgin galactic is and how excited about virgin galactic he is and how great its profitability is going to be in two years you think after that he wanted to sell i don't think so i think he got forced to sell because he was so highly margin so highly leveraged that basically in order to remain competitive in the hedge fund world you pretty much got to sit at like 80 to 100 margin call me crazy but i think these uno reverses we're seeing or a a symptom of weenie babies being weenie babies they're not a symptom of you making poor stock picks the companies that we're buying especially the companies we talk about on this channel they're phenomenal companies these are these are christ attunities to be buying these stocks at just cheap levels uh in my opinion relatively cheap levels like tesla under 700 it's still cheap even though we ran to like 7 10 7 15 today now we're under 688 again you know end phase under 150 come on canoe you can't tell me that's an eight dollar combine whatever whatever the point is and and canoe is a little bit more of a speculative rebound play anyway it's not like a big position but anywho uh i might i might add to that one because that one's getting real cheap anywho this this is not uh to me anything but d leveraging and in in a that's what's happening in my opinion but the second thing or the b which is actually a good thing is that the more this happens the more this uno reversing happens in my opinion the more we're de-risking the market and i'm not just talking about prices going down i'm talking about because we're getting this like up and down stair stepper of we're up uno reverse we're up una reverse we're up una reverse we're actually or at least some hedge funds some weeny beams are able to use those profits to pay down margin and then they get back in the game pay down margin get back in the game pay down margin get back in the game and hopefully it's de-risking the entire financial system now i don't know that is just a hope that i have but personally and this is the big bottom line for for everyone get your margin down if you have margin remember options contracts do not give you margin uh like they don't offset the margin that you have however the cool thing about options is you can't get margin called so like if you want to leverage sometimes options are nice about that we'll be releasing 14 lectures on margin and option in the stocks and psychology of money group great they're super fun lectures uh but anyway and then we'll be adding even more because i'm always adding content to these courses uh but anyway this is really a big warning shot just keep that margin down that you have and go shopping take this extra time that we're getting this extra blessing of more time and go shopping just my two cents
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