저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
신흥국 경기 부진 속 미국·중국 주식 선호 주장. 밈주식 지수가 두 달간 횡보해 조정 경고 신호로 해석. 검색 트렌드상 투자·주식 관심 급감, NFT·비트코인 관심은 높음. 이번 주 내구재주문·제조업 지표 등을 단기 촉매로 언급하며 모멘텀주 일부 비중 축소 제안. 단, 명확한 자산별 가격 예측은 제한적.
다듬은 글
hey everyone we kevin here let's talk about investing trends for the week ahead are we going to see boom or are we going to see bust and where should we be paying attention well the first thing that we want to keep an eye on is the fact that the united states and china are absolutely crushing it so if you were thinking to yourself ah man should i really be investing in emerging market stocks or should i am i okay to just be focusing on the us and maybe a little bit of x bing and neo and the chinese stocks well a lot of folks based on current data would say you know what stick with the us and china and that's because france germany italy the united kingdom japan all of their economies are contracting countries relying on tourism and services are suffering the most the united states has one fourth of their population vaccinated already and at the same time emerging markets are getting devastated because the better the u.s does the higher interest rates go in the united states which makes it more expensive for emerging markets to service their us dollar denominated debt and it makes it even harder for them to recover this is leading folks to estimate that by 2024 output in emerging markets will still be three percent lower than what we had before the pandemic that's not good but that is also leading a lot of people to say you know what i guess it's totally okay for me to focus on u.s and chinese stocks instead of everything else and that is unfortunate for all the other countries in the world i think we're going to hear a lot more about these divergent economies in the weeks ahead now another big trend that's happening right now is something that bloomberg just reported and that is an indication that an index tracking 37 of the most popular meme stocks found that over the last two months we've been pretty much flat and this is now leading bloomberg to headline articles that are suggesting we should expect a big reckoning quote big reckoning they said that not me coming in meme stocks they're specifically targeting amc express zometica the uh veterinarian company uh if i didn't mention it gamestop and amc uh these are some of the big names obviously in the the meme stock movement we've seen crazy movements in these also of course sundial but the top 37 of these popular meme stocks that are being tracked by bloomberg have basically flatlined over the last two months and they're suggesting that this could be the end of that meme stock trend and we could be expecting some big falls or corrections in any of the meme or momentum stocks it could be wrong wall street's been wrong before but they're sending a big signal or sort of a big red flag warning for these particular stocks now we do have a lot of other trends breaking as well and the easiest thing to do here is really just to look at some of these trend changes that are happening let's go ahead and jump on over and see exactly what's happening here so in the last 6 to 10 weeks we had a big explosion in people searching for investing and investing in stocks but this is now wearing down to where we're getting to six-month lows and a lot of interest in investing investing in stocks is plummeting real estate investing has been flat searches for ammo are decently up not at high peaks that we've had recently but they're definitely up searches for flights have not recovered yet to 2019 levels but they're definitely up substantially here recently searches for zom sundial gamestop amc have definitely trended down especially from their highs about six to eight weeks ago uh we've got searches for penny stocks down substantially searches for cryptocurrency down searches for crypto decently high over the last six months i'd definitely say we're we're still hanging out at high levels not at peak levels but at high levels d5 kind of falling down a little bit bitcoin trending still up still good ethereum still good nfts all-time highs on nft related searches i would not be surprised for us to hit new highs and nft related searches non-fungible tokens day trading six-month low swing trading almost a six-month low as well option trading about to break that six-month low spec uh so special purpose acquisition company searches down about uh to a six-month maybe about a five-month low i should say vaccine searches through the roof searches for arc invest plummeting searches for arc invest really peaked around february 16th when the market was at its highest and of course as the market falls people are less interested in arc invest it's kind of the opposite of how things should be but that's how it is searches for trump all-time lows over the last 12 months searches for abide in compared to trump also pretty much at all time lows over the last 12 months searches for suicide for some reason have jumped in just the last three weeks which is very unfortunate definitely talk to somebody if you're having any kind of feelings at all negative feelings talk to somebody keep watching positive videos shootings are up unfortunately searches for shootings are up searches for nike are bumping a little bit here in the last few weeks home gym searches have trended down a little bit in the last couple of weeks here a peloton searches also down a little bit in the last couple of weeks however searches for peloton treadmill are at relative all-time highs which is pretty incredible you've got searches for etsy still really really strong we got searches for wayfair not as strong as we saw searches for storage are relatively up although i didn't do self storage here so that might be a little bit of a misleading search do it yourself trending down sell home at all-time highs over the last uh really five years here we're peaking sell house relative to buy house also both of these all-time highs moving company definitely on the uptrend here over the last five years searches for tesla also somewhat on an uptrend over the last year here searches for volkswagen spiking ford kind of flat gm kind of flat stimulus falling searches for unemployment trending down savings account actually trending up over the last five years a good amount searches for variant like covet variant up spirit airlines up but not 2019 levels american air same thing delta air same thing delta actually probably the closest to getting to 2019 levels searches for sell stocks and buy stocks uh have actually kind of fallen here and searches for inflation are definitely elevated over the last five years so it gives us a little bit of an idea what some of the trends are that we're seeing right now some of the other things to keep in mind are that this week we are expecting to get an update on durable good orders in a february the durable good orders this would be things like cars or larger appliances these this x or orders measure unexpectedly fell 1.1 percent in february month over month and this is despite having a forecast of durable good orders going up 0.8 percent february's was our first decline in 10 months and a lot of that was due to cars being down 8.7 percent because of this massive car shortage wouldn't be surprising if we see another negative set of news on durable good orders and that's coming out monday at 10 a.m eastern so that could have a little bit of an impact in the market there so if you're looking for a shorter term catalyst mark your calendar 10 a.m eastern durable good orders on a monday morning at 10 a.m eastern we also have the monthly manufacturer's shipments inventories and orders report this has been up nine months consecutively we're up two point six percent month over month in january uh and uh we you know it's probably too early to see an impact of the suez canal if we're even really going to see an impact uh there was a lot of talk that as long as we got that ship freed by monday we shouldn't see too much of an impact ship did get freed by monday so that's good another catalyst coming up is on wednesday we have the federal reserve releasing their minutes from their prior meeting but they don't have any meetings or speeches coming up so that's kind of old news and then really to sort of put this all together it seems like it's it's quite possible that over the next week to a few weeks here we might see a little bit of sort of a an anti-momentum stock movement we could see a pro airline stock movement we hopefully will see a pro tech movement again but that could be heavily dependent on what bond yields do we'll see uh and we'll see if crypto can keep some of its momentum or if we've kind of peaked on crypto and we're going to keep focusing on that recovery trade specifically like the airlines i do hope that things will be relatively relaxed going forward but that is just a hope we have no idea relaxed and healthy would be a nice two to three percent gain uh you know every so often throughout this week and maybe the next few weeks rather than seeing these insane euphoric 10 10 10 percent gains which tend to be followed by crashes anywho this is a little bit of an outlook for the week ahead i don't see any negative catalysts for a big crash coming up i would expect volatility and hopefully volatility that averages up that's my expectation based on what i'm seeing and if i were exposed to momentum stocks i'd probably consider reducing a little bit of exposure unless of course you're looking to buy the dip but uh for example if i were going to fundamentally invest in something like zom i might potentially wait a little bit to fundamentally pull the trigger on on a longer term investment in a momentum stock at least with how trends are pointing to a potential pullback again in those like express amc gamestop zom and so on so keep an eye on those emerging market funds as well a lot of folks have index funds that are exposed to emerging markets maybe that's a buy the dip opportunity but not if it takes three or four years for the emerging markets to really circle back you'd be better off picking up in my opinion some discounted tech plays especially look at how etsy and tesla are still performing in trends and the searches for peloton treadmills folks people are upping their searches for nike and gyms uh or or health related goods this may be a sign that as we reopen people are gonna be interested in uh getting into shape and who knows maybe we'll actually see a little bit of a boom in not only exercise equipment who knows but certainly exercise clothing so some investing ideas perspectives on helping you build wealth in my programs link down below you can use the amazing coupon code to the moon link down below i appreciate all of you for watching and folks we'll see in the next you
Comments 0