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Michael Baer is selling Tesla shares. He is the one selling the 2008 stock. And he's not just selling Tesla shares. He's also selling videos in this new short position related to artificial intelligence, as he calls it. He initiated a short position against Tesla on June 30th, revealing that he sold the stock at a price of $41,622.
Now, as I record this video, the stock has already risen, so things are not going too well, but, you know, it's only a day. So he opened a position after Tesla shares jumped about 10%. Baer called Tesla ridiculously overvalued. He has often criticized the company for diluting shareholder value through stock-based compensation without buyback compensation, as well as for shifting its narrative to various technological developments.
And he's not just selling Tesla, he's selling Nvidia, Caterpillar Applied Materials, and the EyesShares Semiconductor ETF. This isn't the first time Baer has bet against electric car maker Elon Musk. He is known for having a $534 million short position on the company in 2021 before closing the deal later that year.
It is unclear at what price he sold his short position in 2021. So we don't know exactly how this deal went for him, but it was pretty significant. And later he simply described it as a deal. The exact strike prices and expiration dates of these options from 2021 have been concealed. So we really don't know what happened.
Although, if he made money, would n't he have let us know about it? For example, if he earned a good amount, wouldn't he let us know about it? Probably. So, I guess it didn't quite work out for him, especially if he shorted Tesla stock like at the beginning of the year or mid-year when Tesla stock was trading at 226 and then quickly rose to 400.
So he could have gone through a significant amount of money there. But this whole deal is not, in essence, a position specifically against Tesla or specifically against Elon Musk. It's more against the broader market and what he calls the AI bubble. So it's not a very specific thing he's doing regarding Tesla.
Burr did not disclose the size of Tesla's position. Nothing in the post indicates a dollar figure, stock count, or options structure for the Tesla short position . Oh, and this deal is from 2021. Well, we don't actually know the exact amount of money he risked because the $500 million figure was just a nominal value .
But we roughly know that he covered this position until November 2021, when Tesla shares rose sharply. So great for him. But Tesla is a side dish, not the main course. The bulk of Tuesday's note concerns semiconductors, not cars. Bohr claims that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is at an all-time high, trading more than 65% above its 200- day moving average.
Such a gap, he said, was observed only once, in 2000. And you hear the year 2000 and technology is a terrible combination. He also points to a price-to- sales ratio above 16x for the index, adding that Nvidia's exclusion barely affects it . He predicts that it is only a matter of time. He wrote about the semiconductor crash, but here's another thing you really need to remember about all of this: Tesla still fits Bohr's broader thesis.
He has publicly declared bearish sentiment on the stock, criticizing what he called Tesla's ridiculous dilution and ridiculously overvalued valuation in December, linking it to the $1 trillion mandatory payout package approved by shareholders last year. By the way, why do you call this funny if you are familiar with the company?
Because you know that Musk only gets paid for real results. If he doesn't work, he doesn't get paid anything. This is very consistent with shareholders. And this is the key part you need to remember. Barry closed his hedge fund at the end of 2025. Closed it and started Substack to freely discuss the AI bubble .
So Barry didn't write the Tesla manifesto. He wrote a note about the semiconductor bubble and added Tesla to the edge of the basket with five days to go. Anyway, Barry goes from being a hedge fund manager, you could say, because he closed his hedge fund, to just being an investor who is a blogger. So its reach and influence, I believe, have diminished significantly.
Another reason why it's probably a terrible, terrible, terrible idea to sell Tesla stock is that a merger between Tesla and SpaceX is quite likely. And the merger that is announced will likely have details where Tesla shares will be purchased at a premium and the current consensus of everyone who is like the Tesla community.
The consensus is that a merger will likely happen, or at least that's Elon's intention to combine the two companies. Whether this will be approved by Tesla shareholders is a whole other story. But the consensus is that the merger will be announced. The attempt will be made. And I don't really understand how SpaceX, if SpaceX were to acquire Tesla, why it would pay less than the market price.
It just sounds ridiculous to me. She will probably pay above market price. So, making this deal somewhat contingent on the assumption that the merger doesn't happen at all . So this is a somewhat disappointing move on Bohr's part, because if he had known just this one detail, I don't think he would have considered short-selling Tesla stock.
Even if you think, say, the assessment is ridiculous. Okay, let's assume for a moment that somehow in the universe of danger this is true, and this is not this universe, but let's say for the sake of argument, okay, let's say the assessment is ridiculous. Why does it matter whether a merger will happen and whether the company that is going to buy the company will pay a premium above what the shares are trading at?
Anyway, this short position seems pretty ridiculous to me, and I'm specifically using electric to analyze this because we know electric is pretty negative about Elon Musk and Tesla, and it wasn't actually as negative as I thought. Of course, the Tesla community has some resistance to the Tesla Economics Account short position, right?
The reality is that Tesla is not a subprime mortgage. This is dominating the electric vehicle market, scaling energy storage with megapacks, developing unmanned FSDs and robotic taxis, creating Optimus, and leading the way in artificial intelligence in robotics unlike any other company in the world.
And I would highly recommend that Michael Burr buy the hardware for the Model Y and just enable FSD anywhere in the United States. Especially try doing it in Texas or New York and see how you like the experience, and you probably will. Just because you're right about the financial crisis doesn't mean you'll be right about betting against the greatest entrepreneur of our time.
Never bet against Elon and the Tesla team. This will end badly. Since we don't know the details, such as the exact details of how much money Michael Boor put at risk , I'm assuming it's not a very big deal, and probably not that significant. Although it might be a big deal. But if it's a big deal, he won't tell us, because if he's going to lose a lot of money, he doesn't want to admit that he's lost a lot of money if the deal goes through .
So there's no advantage to him in revealing how much money he risked, because if he loses a bunch but no one knows about it , his reputation won't really suffer that much . But if it turns out that, let's say, at some point, he's right, and Tesla stock falls to, let's say, 200. He can say, "Oh, look, I predicted that, and the stock fell, and I made money, but how much did you make?" Maybe you put almost nothing in .
So, since he doesn't disclose the exact amounts, it doesn't inspire confidence in me . I don't think he himself fully believes in this deal.
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