저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
금·은 가격 급등 전망의 근거로 연준의 금리 인하 가능성과 그에 따른 달러 약세를 강조하는 영상. 결론: 연준이 과도하게 금리를 올린 뒤 결국 인하하면 달러가 약해지고 금·은·백금이 크게 오를 수 있다는 주장. 연준 금리 관련: 2023년 8월 기준 연준 기준금리 목표 범위는 5.25~5.5%이며, 7월 인상으로 12회 회의 중 11회 인상이 이뤄졌다고 언급됨. 뉴욕연은 총재 윌리엄스가 내년쯤 금리가 내려갈 수 있다고 봄. 페이버의 견해: 연준이 금리 인상을 과도하게 할 것이며, 금리 상승은 부채가 많은 다수 가계·기업에 타격을 주어 소비 위축과 물가 하락으로 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 초고부자는 금리 상승의 수혜를 받는다는 점도 지적. 정부 부채: 미국 정부 부채 이자 부담이 급증하고 있으며 내년 이자만 1조 달러를 넘을 수 있다고 주장. 저금리 시기에 단기 차입을 한 재무부 판단을 비판. 금·은 관련: 금리 인하 및 달러 하락 시 금·은·백금 상승을 예상하나, 구체적 목표가·기간 제시는 없음. 리스크/조건: 금리가 계속 높게 유지되면 경기 침체와 물가 하락 위험이 있다는 조건부 시나리오. 출연자 전망: 페이버는 연준 발표를 믿지 말라는 입장이며, 금리 인하가 금·은에 긍정적이라는 취지로 발언.
다듬은 글
uh there was a strategist of double line which is a fund management company and he said that the Fed suddenly we'll have to cut interest rates not by a quarter percent but by one percent and in Rapid succession because the economy will deteriorate so much when that happens the dollar will tumble and gold and silver and platinum will go ballistic Dr Mark Faber editor and publisher of Gloom boom and doom report believes that the FED might need to cut interest rates by a lot to stimulate the economy this could cause the value of the US dollar to drop and the price of gold and silver to rise John C Williams the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York thinks that the central bank's push to cool the economy is near its peak and that he expects that interest rates could begin to come down next year the upshot is that interest rates are unlikely to rise much further than the current range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent fed officials could also consider cutting them soon Faber thinks that if interest rates keep going up a lot it could cause problems because most people would have less money to spend and this could make prices go down because businesses need to make things cheaper to get people to buy them even after raising interest rates to the highest since 2001 the Federal Reserve still isn't ready to call it quits on its fiercest inflation fight in four decades but the higher rates climb the harder the decision becomes policy makers on the rate setting Federal Open Market Committee raised interest rates another quarter point in July to a new target range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent a decision that marks the 11th increase in 12 meetings let's watch Snippets from Steve Hank's interview but before getting into the video make sure to subscribe our Channel and give this video a thumbs up it looks as he finally interest rates begin to have a mild impact on asset prices because uh us interest rates Rose the rate of inflation came down somewhat the rate of price increases right has nothing to do with monetary policy access to do with the demand destruction as prices went up households had to cut down on their expenditures and so it is possible that from now on the interest rates may hurt business somewhat but the impact on precious metals I would describe as follows in my view the FED will one day overdo its interest rate increases because as I've just described say in a population you have 0.1 percent of super rich people they benefit from the mild interest rate increases we had in real terms the white public say 80 percent of the population is hurt the by Rising interest rates because they have net debts right and most companies have net debt some companies have net cash they benefit from rising interest rate but the net debtors they are hurt so at some point the majority of households have a problem in their spending patterns because the purchasing power of the money they earn is going down so they cut down on spending and that will happen the impact to destroy demand then prices tend to ease when the government spends more money than it gets from taxes it has to borrow money to make up the difference this creates something called a deficit which is like a gap between what's spent and what's earned every year if the government keeps spending more than it earns these deficits add up and create a big overall debt that the country owes in the past the biggest deficits happen when the government spent a lot of money during major emergencies like big Wars or when the economy was in really bad shape like during the Great Depression right now the coronavirus crisis has made things even worse because it hurt the economy a lot and the government had to spend a lot of money to respond and help people Faber highlights that the government has borrowed a lot of money instead of being smart and borrowing when interest rates were low they borrowed when rates were already going up this is causing them to pay a lot more in interest which is a big problem let's watch Mark Faber's interview with Wall Street Silver don't ever believe anything that comes from a government official yeah that's rule number one but of course the Fed in order to maintain some degree of credibility most of their credibility has been lost already yeah but to maintain some credibility they have to increase rates to a level where they can pretend that they're actually fighting inflation it's not very clear how they fight inflation because inflation can occur in building prices like home the home prices or you can occur in Commodities or you can occur in stocks or in bonds or in wages so far what the increase in interest rates has done is to reward wealthy people to some extent including myself you take my portfolio which has maybe 15-20 percent of its money in cash two years ago I didn't get anything on my cash and now I can place money for one year at over six percent uh interest yeah so some people have actually benefited from the increase in interest rates and the people that are hurt are the people that are poor and therefore have large credit card balances they have large home loans mortgages student loans Consumer loans and so and all these uh loans the cost of these loans has all gone up meaningfully not little yeah and number two that is good the one that is hurting in the long run the most is the government because they have huge debts and whereas a clever Treasure of a company when interest rates were artificially low would have borrowed at say one two percent for 30 years Miss Janet Yellen the Secretary of the Treasury continued to borrow short term in 2020 2021 when interest rates were lower than ever in the history of the United States so it shows what the skill is of these government officials it's a complete disaster but that we've known whatever the government does is worse than what the private sector does is nothing new but uh what I want to say is that now the interest on the government debt in the U.S is exploding yeah and it will continue to go up uh by next year I think it will be over a trillion dollars the interests alone on the date also in Japan that the U.S is not unique in that respect all the governments are in the same position but I what I want to show is some people benefit from rising interest rates and other are hurt you could have interest rates at two percent and if you have no inflation at all or deflation it's tight monetary policy what do you think the impact of the FED cutting interest rates would be on the economy and prices of gold and silver would it be a good or bad thing let us know in the comments below that's all from us if you like this video please like share when we release new videos currently 95 of our viewers have not subscribed to our Channel our next goal is to reach 2 000 subscribers please consider subscribing to our Channel and helping us reach our Target
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