저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Marc Faber는 단기적으로는 인플레이션 수치가 개선될 수 있으나 장기적으로는 인플레이션과 금리가 1980~81년 고점을 넘어설 것이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션 지표: 2023년 6월 근원 PCE는 전월 대비 0.2% 상승으로 2021년 9월 이후 가장 낮았고, headline PCE도 0.2% 상승으로 2021년 3월 이후 최저, 전년 대비 headline 인플레이션은 약 3%. 금리 전망: 10년물 국채금리는 1981년 9월 21일 15.84%로 정점을 찍었으며, Faber는 이를 넘어설 것으로 본다. 연준은 기준금리를 0.25%p 인상해 22년여 만의 최고 수준에 도달했고 시장은 올해 추가 인상이 없을 것으로 예상. 재정적자와 금 관련: 재정적자는 인플레이션을 낳는 일종의 세금이며, 인플레이션이 높아지면 금 수요가 늘어 금 가격이 오를 수 있다고 주장. Blumenthal의 미지급 부채(unfunded liabilities) 논리에 동의하며 미국이 통화를 팽창시킬 수밖에 없다고 봄. 연준 및 정책: 연준과 정치인들이 진실을 말하지 않는다고 비판. 주식시장 50% 폭락은 감당할 수 없어 실질적으로 돈을 찍을 것이며, 명목 GDP는 늘지만 실질 생활수준은 하락 중이라고 봄. 달러 체제: 다수 통화의 국제 무역 사용(중국-브라질, 아르헨티나·방글라데시의 위안화 결제 등)을 언급하며 달러 중심 체제가 점진적으로 퇴조할 것이라 봄. 금본위제를 선호하나 가까운 시일 내 실현 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 시장 구조: 미국이 글로벌 주식시장 시총의 50% 이상을 차지하나, 중국(산업생산·시멘트)과 인도(경제규모 영국 초과) 등 신흥국으로 경제력이 이동 중이라고 주장. 투자 조언: 금·귀금속 선호, 안정적 통화 선호, 미국 외 국가의 주식·펀드·원자재·부동산으로 분산투자 권고. 영상 대부분은 장기 거시 견해이며 구체적 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
my view is that although the inflation figures may look better for the next few months in the long run I think the inflation figures and interest rates will exceed the peak we had in 1980-81 when the 10 years Treasury was yielding more than 15 percent it peaked out at 15.84 percent on September 21st 1981.
I think we're gonna exceed that overall inflation has moderated meaningfully in recent months in the United States the core pce which excludes food and energy only increased by 0.2 percent in June the slowest rate since September 2021. the headline pce which includes food and energy also saw a 0.2 percent increase in June the slowest rate since March 2021 currently the year-on-year headline inflation rate is around 3 percent in the United States Mark Faber founder of Gloom boom and doom report highlights that inflation may appear to improve in the coming months but both inflation figures and interest rates will go higher than the highest point we saw in 1980 to 81.
if inflation does go higher as Faber predicts it could lead to an increase in the demand for gold this could drive up the price of gold making it a more valuable investment Mark also mentions that fiscal deficits which lead to inflation act as attacks on the overall system the fiscal deficits of the late 1990s under President Clinton were the Catalyst for the current situation a fiscal deficit occurs when a government spends more money than it earns in income in 2009 during President Barack Obama's administration the deficit increased to over one trillion dollars to finance government stimulus programs aimed at combating the Great Recession while it was a record dollar amount it was relatively small compared to the size of the economy which was only 9.7 percent in 2020 under President Donald Trump's Administration the deficit Rose to 3.1 trillion dollars for the entire fiscal year Mark also agrees with the opinion of Blumenthal who suggests that the U.S may have to inflate its currency due to unfunded liabilities which are obligations that the government has without having enough money to cover them in light of this the FED raised interest rates by 0.25 percent the highest level in more than 22 years two more rate hikes were expected but markets now predict no more hikes this year the FED will make decisions on interest rates based on the latest data Mark believes fed is willing to take action to prevent the stock market from dropping significantly even if it means printing more money let's watch Snippets from Mark Faber's interview but before getting into the video make sure to subscribe our Channel and give this video a thumbs up thank you I think for the U.S they could of course reduce spending and they could increase taxation but the way the political system in Western democracies is set up is that whenever taxes go up they go up on poor people and the middle class and the upper middle class but the super rich they always find ways to avoid taxation through all kinds of Foundations and benefit sensor force and so on so at the end tax increases have a very negative impact on the economy because it hits the the people that consume the most in other words the middle class and the lower classes and so it's unfair spending cuts would be desirable especially in the case of the U.S end of European countries where transfer payments are huge you understand a country that has expenditures it could spend money on infrastructure and productivity improving uh Capital spending but to take money out of the pocket of someone through fiscal deficits and transfer it to someone else is of no use macroeconomically speaking and the deficits that I need to point out is a tax a fiscal deficit and which then leads to inflation inevitably is a tax on the system and in my view this gentleman this Blumenthal is absolutely right the U.S will have to inflate also because of the unfunded liabilities the Catalyst has begun already for a long time fiscal deficits under Clinton and the booming stock market of the late 1990s there was a for a brief period of time for three years there were fiscal surpluses since then it's all right ink and as a result of that the government debt goes up and more money printing is necessary to finance this mess the FED like other government agencies and like other politicians and government officials they are all lying lying they never tell the truth they tell the public what the public needs to hear and their interest is of course to maintain the financial Market at the high level they don't want deflation in financial assets and if they could they would also prevent deflation in real assets like properties but this is difficult to control but basically they can't afford the stock market to drop 50 percent so they will print money in real terms in other words inflation adjusted has gone down in other words the fed and the government statistics report that GDP is going up but my figures suggest that the standard of living of the typical household in the U.S and in Europe is going down on being asked about the year to be launch breaks currency Mark believes that many different currencies should be used for international trade as this would help to spread power and reduce the risk of economic instability China and Brazil have made an agreement to conduct their trade and financial transactions using their own currencies instead of the US dollar China's yuan is becoming more influential globally Argentina is the latest country to accept the Yuan for transactions when importing goods from China moving away from the US dollar similarly Bangladesh which is India's neighbor has also decided to use the Yuan to settle payment for a nuclear plant regarding the current dollar dominated system Mark believes that it should gradually phase out as economic power has shifted to emerging economies like China and India he prefers a stable currency backed by gold and other precious metals and would like to see a return to the gold standard however he doesn't think it's likely to happen soon the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ are two of the largest stock exchanges in the world and together they represent a significant symbol of American Financial power their combined market value is much bigger than any other Stock Exchange globally as the Dollar's dominance wanes it's anticipated that investors will increasingly look to Emerging Markets like China and India for investment opportunities this could lead to a more Diversified Global Financial system which could be beneficial for everyone Mark recommends diversifying investments in other countries including stocks funds Commodities and real estate to take advantage of opportunities beyond the U.S market let's watch Mark Faber's interview with Stansberry Research in my view it is desirable for the world to have many participants in global economic Affairs and in global politics in other words I think the system should not be a system where you have a kind of a currency a Global Currency like the dollar was so before the British pound or the Spanish pizeta and so forth I think the basis that we have many different currencies and that people trade freely with each other in other words when China trades with Saudi Arabia or China trades with Brazil or China trades with Russia there's no need the transaction should occur in U.S dollars it should occur either in Saudi real or uh or in Chinese you you are no rmbs in other words I think the best for the world is that the dollar system that prevailed is gradually phased out and this is going to happen because the balance of economic power which was strongly in the hands of the United States in the 1950s and 60s since the 70s and especially after the 1990s when China really began to open up this balance of economic power has shifted into emerging economies China produces is a much larger industrial producer than the us today in 1970 China only consumed two percent of global industrial Commodities today it's close to 50 percent China produces more cement than the rest of the world combined there's a big country and another big country is coming up India it's now a larger economy than Britain who were the colonial Master of the Indians for years uh it's a new world but the American politicians they can't accept the fact that the U.S is no longer the number one economic power in the world it is still an important power but it's not the number one power any longer the many number one Powers including China in some Industries India in other Industries Brazilian other Industries and and I mean I'm in favor of uh cold and precious metals and I'm in favor of a stable currency I think money is far too important to leave it into the hands of some academics who've never worked in their life they went to universities and write all kinds of paper that are entirely useless a taxpayers expenses and so forth but they shouldn't be in charge of essentially the budget of a country so I'm in favor of course of a cold standard but I don't think it will happen now I think what investors should consider is that at the present time the U.S is approximately or more than 50 percent of global stock market capitalization and the US dollar is the unit of account globally most trades still happened happens in U.S dollars I think over time this will change and that investors should move money out of U.S dollars but not only move out of U.S dollars and hold the funds in the U.S they should actually invest in other countries in the stocks funds commodities and real estate inflation is a Hot Topic right now and there are a lot of different opinions on how to deal with it what do you think about Mark Faber's views on inflation do you agree with him let us know in the comments below that's all from us if you like this video please like share when we release new videos currently 96 percent of you have not subscribed to our Channel our goal is to reach 1 000 subscribers as 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