저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 미국 주식·일부 자산 버블을 경계하면서도 원자재(은 등)는 역사적으로 싸다고 보며, 당장 매수는 하지 않지만 언젠가 매수 기회가 올 것으로 본다. 주식·버블 경고: 미국 주식시장은 장기간 심각한 베어마켓 없이 올라왔고 이는 역사상 드문 일이라 경계해야 한다고 주장. 주식 시장 전반: 대부분 국가 주가가 사상 최고치 근처이며, 채권도 역사상 매우 높은 수준으로 버블 우려가 있다고 언급. 부동산: 일부 지역은 좋지만 뉴질랜드·한국 등 여러 부동산 시장에 버블이 형성 중이라고 평가. 원자재: 은은 사상 최고가 대비 약 60% 하락, 설탕도 60% 이상 하락해 역사적으로 싸다고 평가. 농산물도 저렴하다고 언급. 다만 원자재 투자에도 손실 위험이 있고 지금은 은을 사지 않는다고 함. 은은 태양광 등에 쓰여 매수 타이밍을 기다리는 중. 은 기술적 분석(진행자 영상 내용): 2월 약 17% 하락 후 일부 회복했으나 현재가는 연초보다 낮음. 23달러 아래 횡보 중이며 22.25달러가 다음 목표. 23달러 돌파 시 하락 압력이 멈추고 단기 반등 가능. 22.25달러(61.8% 피보나치) 이탈 시 추가 하락 신호. 브릭스 통화: 브릭스의 새 기축통화 추진에 회의적. 인위적 통화는 장기적으로 성공한 적이 없으며, 위안화는 완전 태환이 아니어서 국제 교환 매개가 되기 어렵다고 주장. 거시 리스크: 중앙은행의 통화 발행과 정부의 과도한 차입이 계속되며, 소규모 사건(예: 2007년 아이슬란드 파산)이 큰 위기의 신호가 될 수 있다고 경고. 투자자 중 초보 투기자가 늘어나는 현상을 우려. 마무리: 은 가격은 23달러 아래 횡보 중이며 하락 추가 가능성, 23달러 돌파 시 반등 가능성이 있고, 브릭스 기축통화는 시기상조라는 결론.
다듬은 글
we see some of the science inflation is rising again interest rates are rising again we see new entries coming into the new investors coming into the market and they call up their friends it's like I discovered this new thing called the stock market and it's fun and you can make money and it's easy it's easy to make money and so all the signs that the world has seen many times before are happening again I don't know how much longer this will go on I'm not selling short not yet but I do see worrying signs for the markets and therefore the world economy silver began 2023 with a slow start but its price fell significantly in February it has since recovered some of those losses but the current price is still lower than it was at the beginning of the year the overall outlook for 2023 suggests that silver may continue its upward trend from the end of 2022 but the recent fluctuation in its price makes it difficult to classify the market as either a bull or bear Market in February the price of silver fell by about 17 percent from just under twenty four dollars an ounce to under twenty dollars an ounce the price of silver is currently consolidating below the 23 level indicating new negative trading conditions there is an expectation for further decline towards the next Target at 22.25 however if the price manages to break above 23 dollars it would halt the corrective bearish pressure and potentially initiate an attempt to recover in the short term on Tuesday silver showed a slight positive trend for the third consecutive day but it has not been able to surpass the 23 dollar level during the early European session from a technical perspective there was a recent breakout above the 2265 to 2270 range which includes the 200 hour simple moving average and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level this breakout is favorable for bullish Traders if the price drops below the 22 dollars and 25 cents level which corresponds to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from March to May it would be seen as a fresh signal for bearish Traders and could lead to further losses Jim Rogers highlights that it has been a relatively long period without a serious bear Market in the United States silver is down by 60 from its all-time high and sugar prices have also dropped significantly however it's important to note that investing in Commodities still carries risks and there is no guarantee of making money let's listen to Jim Rogers point of view see that some prices are make me happy because they're cheap and I can buy them agriculture is cheap for instance I hope I think so there are some prices that are cheap and that makes me happy because maybe I can make some money investing in them but I guess U.S stock prices make me unhappy to use your words because they're they're bubbles developing I mean Apple goes up every day you know that's been a great country company that does not mean it's going to be a great stock forever okay I see that stocks in most countries either are or have been at an all-time high or near making making new eyes you know bonds and bonds have never been this high in the history of the world so bonds are certainly above them so what's left a property yes you can invest in property and in some places it's great but many property markets New Zealand Korea I mean there are many property bubbles going on around the world and really only these Commodities that are cheap I mean silver is down 60 from its all-time high sugar now more than 60 percent so the only asset class that I see where they're really cheap about entities our Commodities that doesn't mean you can't lose money if you buy them but that's the only place I see on a historic basis cheap prices but I'm not buying silver today but I do know it's cheap I know that I mentioned sugar I know that some of these things are awfully cheap I don't the market is not telling me in the market I hope will tell me when to buy it but someday I'm going to see how everybody's negative on Silver and talk about how it always goes down and blah blah blah if that happens that the market will tell me to buy but silver is used in solar energy as you well know and many other things I'm not sure when I will buy or what the Catalyst will be I just hope I'm smart enough to buy it but guys you know it's been what 14 years since we had a serious bear Market in the United States and I'll use the United States since it's the largest market and that has never happened in American history we've never had such a long period without serious economic and financial problems doesn't mean it's not going to go for 24 years or 44 years but it never has so whatever is happening we're getting towards the end the brics Nations have announced their intention to create a new Reserve currency but there are important questions regarding its feasibility and adoption the impact of Western sanctions on Russia and its exclusion from dollar trading systems has led countries to increasingly consider alternatives to the US dollar for trade the brics Nations which collectively account for a significant share of the global economy have seen this as an opportunity to create a new Reserve currency that could challenge the dominance of the dollar Jim Rogers a renowned investor has expressed skepticism about the break's ability to develop a new Global Currency comparable to the US dollar Rogers has argued that artificial currencies have not been successful in the long run while they may work for a certain period they have not been able to maintain stability and value over time he also emphasizes that the Chinese currency is not fully convertible it is gradually becoming more convertible but until it achieves full convertibility it is unlikely to become the world's medium of exchange or International currency despite the challenges the brics Nations have shown a willingness to work together to create a new Reserve currency if they are successful this could have a significant impact on the Global Financial system however it is too early to say whether the bricks will be able to overcome the challenges and successfully launch a new Reserve currency let's watch Jim Rogers interview markets can go up and down and do all sorts of strange things but eventually it's the investors who call the tune and if we have a lot of speculative new and speculative uneducated or inexperienced I guess is a better word and the experienced investors it worries me the central banks keep printing money and governments keep borrowing and spending money the US government borrows gigantic amounts of money every day every day look at Tokyo oh my gosh you're going to believe how much they borrow and spend it's going on around the world and I'm not suggesting this is good for the world okay I'm not suggesting it's good for you or me or our children or you know something will happen and we will not pay much attention it'll be a small country or a small industry or something and not many of us will recognize what's going on you know in 2007 Iceland went bankrupt but nobody can there nobody paid attention of course until everybody paid attention it was on the Evening News by 2008 and we all knew there was a problem that's the way it usually works or historically it works so I don't know what the smallest straw will be but I know that few of us will recognize it as it's happening well historically I would call it an artificial currency for lack of a better word artificial currencies have not been successful down the road I mean they may they may work for a while but the you know I'm a simple peasant guy I want to be able to put it under my bed and hide it away if I need to and I knew we have not ever in history had an artificial currency it's worked very long so I I wish some luck but I think they're going to have to do I mean if they meet and they say oh and by the way China's now got a convertible currency that would be a big step in the right direction but I don't see an artificial currency having a major impact well the Chinese are in men be the currency is not convertible at the moment it's partially it's getting more convertible well until the currency is convertible you know I don't see how the renminby can be the world's medium of exchange the international currency maybe eventually yes but not now I mean I only remember but it's not convertible uh and I don't but I don't see any other currency on the horizon it's got the potential but not yet Kai I'm I don't see I cannot imagine the world having an international medium of exchange which is not convertible in the end the price of silver is consolidating below 23 dollars indicating further decline towards 22 dollars and 25 cents however a break above 23 dollars could halt the decline and initiate a recovery the brics nations are working on a new Reserve currency but it is too early to say if it will be successful that's all from us if you like this video please subscribe like and 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