저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 연준이 인플레이션 싸움에서 물러설 것이므로 달러 약세와 금 급등이 올 것이라고 주장한다. 금 가격 전망: 금이 2,000달러, 2,100달러, 2,200달러를 돌파할 가능성이 있으며, 지금은 횡보 중이지만 상승이 시간문제라고 본다. 쉬프는 장기 보유 관점에서 지금 사두고 기다리는 편이 나중에 비싸게 사는 것보다 낫다고 말한다. 연준 금리 전망: 연준이 금리 인상을 일시 멈춘 것은 고금리로 인한 실물경제와 은행권 피해를 고려한 것이라고 해석한다. 현재 금리 5%는 1971년 이후 역사적으로 낮은 수준이며, 14년간의 초저금리와 비교해서만 높게 보인다고 말한다. 연준이 금리를 더 올리지 못하므로 결국 인플레이션이 크게 오를 것이라고 주장한다. 달러 약세 전망: 중국, 러시아, 사우디, 브라질, 인도 등 주요국이 달러 보유를 줄이고 있어 달러에 강한 하방 압력이 생긴다고 본다. 미국의 무역적자(연 약 1조 달러)와 재정적자(연 약 2조 달러)가 사상 최대 수준이라 달러 가치 하락이 불가피하다는 입장이다. 달러가 약해지면 금 가격이 오른다고 설명한다. 은행 시스템 리스크: 실버밸리은행, 시그니처은행 등 대형 파산을 언급하며, 정부 개입이 없었다면 2008년보다 큰 금융위기였을 것이라고 본다. 국채·주택저당증권 가치 하락과 상업용 대출 부실이 누적되고 있고, 예금자들이 머니마켓펀드(5%)로 자금을 옮기면서 은행 예금이 이탈하고 있다고 지적한다. 인플레이션 전망: 정부 재정적자를 연준이 화폐 발행으로 메울 수밖에 없어 인플레이션이 급등할 것이라고 주장한다. 중국이 달러를 쓰는 방식이 바뀌면서 수입 물가도 올라 인플레이션이 미국으로 다시 수입된다고 본다. 단기 금 가격 흐름: 금은 일시적으로 100일 이동평균선 아래로 내려갔으나, 달러 지수가 5주 저점에 근접하며 반등했다. 달러 지수가 낮을수록 금이 상대적으로 싸진다고 설명한다. 리스크/조건: 연준이 금리를 낮추거나 노동시장이 붕괴하면 금에 호재가 되는 시나리오가 제시된다. 반대로 연준이 매파적 입장을 유지하면 금에 악재가 될 수 있다고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
bold's really gone gone sideways but I think it'll be interesting to see what happens if we do get a big breakout in gold gold takes out 2 000 maybe 2100 2200 once the price of gold really starts to go up I mean maybe right now they feel they can go slower and you know they're taking advantage of the fact that the price has been relatively stable it is a bit surprising that it hasn't already moved up given what's going on I think right that's causing some people to kind of doubt that it's ever going to move up because they'll say well if it can't move up given the circumstances it'll never move up well that's just not true it's just it's just taking time gold prices hit a three-month low below one thousand nine hundred and thirty dollars but recovered due to selling pressure on the US dollar the dollar we can buy over one percent making gold more appealing to investors with other currencies Gold's performance next week depends on Market perception of the fed's rate Outlook hawkish stance could weigh on prices while a devish Outlook could boost them regarding this issue Schiff recently shared in his tweet don't believe the hype on the fair talkish pause on rates If the Fed really was hawkish it wouldn't have skipped this rate hike there's a good chance that the fed's next move on rates will be a cut not because hashtag inflation is lower but because the labor market finally cracks Schiff recently appeared in an interview with Paul Baron Network in which he highlights that the FED has been raising interest rates in an attempt to cool inflation but so far these efforts have been unsuccessful when the markets realized that the FED will not be successful in its battle against inflation and will eventually concede inflation is expected to Surge causing gold prices to Skyrocket Schiff also believes that it is important to consider that current interest rates are historically low a rate of five percent is not considered high when viewed in a broader historical context for example the federal reserve's funds rate has typically been below five percent since the adoption of Fiat money in 1971.
Schiff added five percent is only considered high in comparison to the rates we have experienced over the past 14 years or so now we are getting into the interview of Schiff to listen the shift point of view lateral damage to the economy to the banking system I mean in his q a yesterday he said that he's never going to tell Congress to stop spending or stop the deficits he said that's none of his business fiscal policy is in any of his concern well that means he's going to have to monetize all those deficits that he refuses to criticize which was skyrocketing there's going to be tremendous pressure on the FED to create inflation not to fight inflation and so when the markets realized that the FED is not going to be victorious in this fight against inflation it's going to surrender inflation is going to win gold is going to go ballistic you know uh and you know so I just you know feel that you know I'm willing to wait it out because I know how much it's going to go up when it finally moves and I'd rather own it now and wait than have to scramble to buy it later at a much higher price well I kind of think the FED is is done at least for the time being I don't believe that they're going to follow through with the additional rate hikes that their you know they're forecasting between now and the end of the year I think they pause for a reason I think if they really were committed to continuing the inflation fight they wouldn't have paused they would just raise rates because they've admitted that they're still not high enough and inflation is a bigger problem than they thought um so why pause I think the reason is because they're also paying attention to the damage that higher rates are doing to the real economy and in particular to the the banks and the financial system and and so I think they don't want to put any added pressure on such a fragile situation so they stop hiking but I don't think it's going to matter I think that just leaving rates where they are is too big a burden for the system to handle and you have to keep in mind that rates are not high five percent historically is low I mean if you go back to the you know the era where we've been on Fiat money go back to 1971 and where have the FED funds rates been five is not is not high it's only high in relation to where we've been for the last you know 14 years or so uh in this unprecedented period of monetary access but we now have the highest inflation since the 1970s yet interest rates are nowhere near where they were back then so they've got a long way to go up but of course the FED can't let them go up which means inflation is what's going to go way up that's why I'm so embarrassed I'm in bullish on gold because I'm very bearish on the dollar in the interview shift highlighted that the major countries like China Russia Saudi Arabia Brazil and India are reducing their dollar Holdings and seeking to unload their Surplus dollars this is a significant development as these countries have traditionally been the largest holders of U.S debt the reasons for this shift are complex but they include concerns about the US's Rising Dead levels its record budget deficits and its trade deficits the reduction of dollar Holdings by these major countries will exert significant pressure on the dollar he also added that the reduction in foreign demand for dollars and treasuries can potentially lead to a devaluation of the U.S currency which would increase the price of gold let's move towards the interview of Peter Schiff because the the FED tightening cycle is coming to an end and and so that's been the the Tailwind for the dollar it's now uh going to be a head win I mean it's going to be weakening the dollar but you also have this unprecedented movement now around the world to de-dollarize you know countries that were significant buyers of dollars and then U.S treasuries are now sellers you know China obviously doesn't want our dollars it doesn't want to buy new dollars it wants to get rid of dollars it owns same thing you know clearly Russia you know is not a dollar buyer anymore uh Saudi Arabia that doesn't appear to want dollars anymore Brazil uh India uh you got major uh exporting countries that have huge Dollar surpluses in their you know trade and a large dollar reserves in their in their Holdings that want to unload uh so this is going to put tremendous pressure on the dollar at a time where our budget deficits and our trade deficits are in record territory we've got trillion dollar a year trade deficits two trillion dollar a year budget deficits uh we're you know there's no place for those three trillion dollars to go you know uh and so that this is massive inflation because you know for years and years America exported its inflation we printed money and sent it out to places like China they used the money to buy treasuries which kept our rates low and then they shipped us Goods that they produced which kept consumer prices low right now we're gonna import that inflation back because now the Chinese aren't going to want to buy these dollars and so they're they're and no and therefore Chinese goods are going to be more expensive we're not going to buy as much stuff so our prices are going to go up and now the Chinese are going to take those dollars that they used to hold in treasuries and they're going to come shopping in America to buy our stuff and a lot of it isn't going to be the new stuff that we make but it's going to be the old stuff that we already own so it's like a giant repossession but all this money is going to come in and prices are going to go ballistic certainly people the bankers didn't anticipate that the FED would be this aggressive in fact early on I didn't think they'd do it either I I didn't even think they can get away with it I thought that pulling the rug out from under the economy you know would topple it faster uh so I was kind of surprised that they were able to get rates to five percent without more damage now of course we got that damage and they backstopped it we had Silicon Valley Bank Signature Bank or these these massive failures and there would have been way more had the government not come to the rescue it already would have been a much bigger financial crisis than 08.
now all they've done really is been able to you know hold it off you know but the the momentum is building as rates stay where they are and more and more you know low yielding debt matures in a higher rate environment but the pressure continues to mount on the banks because the value of their collateral is collapsing uh you know that not only the treasuries and mortgage back but they're commercial loan books are imploding yeah and they're losing their deposits because their customers are taking their money back because they can buy a money market fund and get five percent they're still paying zero on checking you get maybe a quarter of a percent at most on savings accounts yeah you can get a couple of percent if you you buy a CD but why lock your money up for three or five years when you can get more just putting it in a money market and getting a checkbook you know you can get money market checking you know at a brokerage firm and and get five percent of your money gold initially declined falling below its 100-day moving average but quickly rebounded as the value of the dollar tank this sequence of events highlights the inverse relationship that is often observed between gold prices and the performance of the dollar a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies which dampens demand gold found support in the market as the dollar Index approached a five-week low which had a positive impact on its price and overall performance when the dollar Index is low it means that the US dollar is weaker relative to other currencies making gold relatively cheaper to purchase that's all from our site make sure to hit subscribe and like button if you like this video and click the Bell icon if you want to watch more videos like this
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