저자: JB · 한국인
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2023년 2월 하락장에서 자금이 적은 투자자에게 TQQQ 대신 TMF 분할매수를 권함. 채권은 주식보다 낙폭 대비 저평가이며 Fed 금리인하/동결 신호 시 채권가격이 급등할 것으로 봄. 빅테크 실적 악화와 나스닥 밸류에이션 부담(10년 평균 P/E 대비 약 20% 고평가)을 근거로 주식 회복이 채권보다 늦을 것으로 판단. 채권·주식 금리 동조 상승은 비정상이라고 주장. 현금 비중 유지 및 적립식 매수 권장.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello. This is JB. I wasn't planning on uploading a video today since the US market isn't open anyway, but a topic worth discussing suddenly came up, so I’ll give it a try. One of our membership members left a comment on the live membership board asking this question: "If I do n't have much capital and can only invest in either TMF or TQQ, should I start buying TMF in installments now?
Or should I wait? Or, well, for now, don't be greedy and plan to buy TMF in installments with only half of your capital, while keeping the remaining 50% cash on TQQ to prepare for a potential crash?" If it were me, I would definitely recommend the latter method. Now, everyone, you didn't leave that question on the membership board just to hear such obvious advice, did you?
It's okay if I'm wrong and I wo n't blame you; the final decision will be yours to deliberate carefully anyway, so you left this question because you wanted JB the to clearly state your position, right? So, let me tell you exactly. As you all probably guessed, I think it's definitely TMF right now. I believe that TMFs offer a much better return relative to the risk involved in the current situation.
Let me explain why. First, I think bonds are currently more undervalued than stocks. Of course, while TQQ has risen significantly from its recent lows, it remains down considerably from its peak, and the same applies to TMFs. However, even if there is a crash of the same magnitude, a decline in stocks and a decline in bonds should never be compared.
To put it simply, a 30% drop in stocks is a completely different matter from a 30% drop in bonds. A 30% drop in stocks—while not common—can happen at any time. But even with the same figures, a 30% drop in bonds is equivalent to a stock decline of 60% or 70%. This is because U.S. Treasury bonds, along with gold, are representative safe assets.
Furthermore, bonds are much safer than the S&P 500. We have often said this while watching the current bear market: "Wow, for the first time in decades, stocks..." This market crash is a heaven-sent opportunity. It is annoying that this stock market crash occurred right when I had already nearly exhausted my funds, but anyway, the point is to buy a lot while they are cheap.
Now, everyone, the fact that bonds have fallen this much might actually be an opportunity that is much harder to come by than stocks. That is why I view bonds as having fallen more significantly right now, which means I believe there is still a much larger potential for profit. For your reference, my long-time subscribers know that I am absolutely not someone who insists you should buy only bonds simply because they are safe assets.
You all know that back in late December last year, when both the Nasdaq and bonds experienced record-breaking crashes, I actually argued that we should buy TQQ instead. Anyway, please understand that I am not saying TMF is better these days just because it is closer to a low point relative to the Nasdaq.
Now, at this point, you might have a question. Okay, I admit that it has fallen significantly from the peak and that bonds are a representative safe asset. But ultimately, recovery is what matters, isn't it? What if they keep failing to recover the peak? Regarding this part as well... I really have so much to say.
If I were to go on and on about everything I want to say, it would take about 40 minutes just for that, and I ca n't do that. So, I’m going to pick one point that is as simple as possible and intuitively easy for everyone to understand and explain it to you. Now, everyone, what are we waiting for most in this situation?
Whether you are a bond investor or a stock investor, what we are waiting for most is a rate cut by the Fed, right? Since bonds are currently in a historically undervalued phase, everything will be resolved if interest rates are lowered. Really, everything will be resolved. Or, even if it doesn't go as far as a rate cut, if the Fed just gives a clear signal that they won't be able to raise rates anymore—a signal of a rate freeze—bond prices will start skyrocketing again.
Then, some of you might say, " Oh, can't I just buy when the rate signal is clear?" Yes, those of you who want to do that are fine. But you need to know this: we have hit a massive short-term peak. Anyway, for those of you who are too worried, I recommend pulling out everything—whether stocks or bonds—right now and holding onto cash.
And even if, just in case, a massive crash comes, as long as we live in a capitalist system, the bond and stock markets won't disappear. So, even when that time comes, be thoroughly prepared. You can simply use your existing funds to buy more while maintaining a good balance of cash and using dollar-cost averaging.
Anyway, I mentioned that interest rate cuts are ultimately the key factor for bonds. Now, let's look at stocks. Of course, if interest rates are cut, stocks will rise significantly. I am talking about rate cuts implemented only after infrastructure is firmly stabilized, not the kind of cuts forced upon you because of a crisis in the US.
However, while interest rates are certainly important for stocks, they ultimately need to be supported by corporate earnings. But in the current situation, big tech companies are n't generating revenue like they used to and net profits have dropped significantly, forcing them to lay off so many people just to cut costs.
I have doubts about whether they can recover the performance levels they showed when they hit their previous highs in a short period of time. That is why I think bonds might recover their previous highs faster than stocks. Also, most tech stocks on the Nasdaq are still about 20% more expensive compared to their 10-year average P/E ratio.
Historically speaking, bond yields and the Nasdaq should move in opposite directions. When bond yields rise, the Nasdaq falls, and bond yields... The Nasdaq should ideally rise in the opposite direction only when bond yields drop a bit, but currently, bond yields and the Nasdaq are rising together. This is certainly not a normal situation, and it is something we need to be suspicious of.
Therefore, considering the overall situation, I believe that TMF is currently much more undervalued than TQ. So, if you start accumulating TMF through dollar-cost averaging now, I expect there will definitely be good results. Also, due to the nature of bonds, the risk involved is much lower than that of stocks, but I am also hoping that the expected future return might actually be higher.
Well then, I would like to thank everyone who signed up for membership today and wrap up. Thank you for joining the McDonald's membership, An-soon. Thank you for joining the McDonald's membership, Terunia. Thank you for joining the McDonald's membership, Kim Jeong-im. Thank you for joining the McDonald's membership, Jaksimcheonil.
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