올해 SOXL과 테슬라 기대해도 좋습니다.

요약 보기

AI 주도 장세로 반도체 섹터가 올해 재반등할 것으로 전망. 빅테크의 AI 투자 지속, 기업 이익 견조, 중국 반도체 사재기 등으로 실적 서프라이즈 가능성 제기. 테슬라는 4분기 인도량 발표 후 주가가 양호할 것으로 봄. 중국 베이징 자율주행 확대, 인도 시장 진출을 긍정 요인으로 언급. 멤버십 게시판에서 실시간 매수 기회를 공유하겠다고 예고.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Yes, hello, this is JB. Membership member Jenny Mom has sent us a valuable Super Tangs donation, and I am truly grateful. I will do my best to ensure you continue to receive much support in the future. So, in today's video, I will discuss how the semiconductor sector and Tesla are expected to unfold this year.

02. Also, there is a big event scheduled for tonight; Tesla's Q4 delivery figures are expected to be released around 11:00. I will share my personal thoughts on how the results might turn out, so if you are interested, please listen carefully until the end. Also, before we begin, I would like to give our membership members an announcement.

03. I will be posting on the membership board between 11:00 and 11:20 tonight, and if there are any new opportunities for buying, I will enter the purchase immediately. Therefore, members who usually participate in my real-time buying and selling should check the membership community board carefully during that time.

04. Now, let's get started with the content of today's video. I believe that a market led by AI will unfold again this year. Although the semiconductor sector showed a generally weak and significant decline at the end of last year, this year... I have a feeling that it will successfully rebound and show another explosive rise.

05. There are a few reasons why I think this. First, considering the recent interview with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and the remarks by Google CEO Sundar Pichai—who are so sincere about developing their own chips while simultaneously still stockpiling Nvidia chips—and looking at Amazon and Meta, well, that goes without saying.

06. These big tech companies, which control and maintain the demand for AI chips, are still sincere about AI investment and have no intention of backing down. Just looking at this, I think the stock market will continue to be driven by AI this year, and the semiconductor sector will benefit significantly.

07. Also, let me mention one more thing. There are quite a few opinions saying that semiconductor stock prices need to fall further and that there is still too much of a bubble. Well, you might think that way. However, what you need to know is that the semiconductor sector is inherently bound to face controversy regarding peaks and bubbles.

08. That is why the volatility is so high. But the characteristic of the semiconductor sector is that it overcomes those bubble controversies and breaks through previous highs every time. Anyway, putting all that aside, I don't think the semiconductor sector is particularly... The earnings continue to clearly prove that there is no bubble.

09. Most semiconductor companies are still recording high operating profit margins, and while not quite on the level of Big Tech firms, they are all incredibly profitable. It is not just Vidia and TSMC—whom we talk about endlessly—that are making good money; if you look, companies like Qualcomm, AMD, Broadcom, Applied Materials, and others are all earning massive profits overall.

10. Also, something you absolutely must know is that the current stock price does not necessarily accurately represent a company's true value. Sometimes, the stock price and corporate value are out of sync. Just because SOXL is crashing and the stock prices of its constituent companies have fallen significantly does not mean those companies are facing a truly grave crisis.

11. I mean, they are making so much money, so how can there be a crisis? Furthermore, personally, I believe a full-scale rebound in the semiconductor sector is possible before the Q4 earnings season. First, semiconductor stock prices are currently being suppressed relative to earnings due to political factors and external factors like bond yields.

12. Also, recent news keeps coming in that Chinese companies are hoarding semiconductors... We are hearing about it. Since it is impossible to know what additional sanctions might be introduced once the Trump administration takes office, they intend to stockpile inventory in advance. Just two days ago, news broke that orders for related companies have surged since November as Chinese firms pour all their efforts into securing advanced semiconductor materials.

13. Because these factors can be viewed as unexpected additional profits that the market did not anticipate, I believe the probability of semiconductor companies delivering earnings surprises that exceed expectations during the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings announcements has increased. And speaking of Tesla, positive news continues to emerge for them as well.

14. Of course, since Tesla's stock price surge was largely driven by expectations following Trump's election rather than proven by actual performance, there is certainly anxiety that a bubble could burst significantly. However, personally, looking at the current situation, I think this year will not be bad.

15. While I look forward to development within the U.S. where they can fully capitalize on Trump's advantages, I also think things will be good in China. This news came out two days ago: Beijing, the capital of China, plans to expand the operation of autonomous vehicles starting April 1st of next year. The introduction of autonomous driving is not limited to private cars but will also apply to public buses and taxis.

16. With the inclusion of autonomous vehicles, the use of these vehicles is being encouraged across various fields. This could act as a positive catalyst for Tesla. Also, as I mentioned last time, the expansion into the Indian market is one of the highly anticipated factors. Now, let me share my thoughts on Tesla's upcoming fourth-quarter delivery figures.

17. More precisely, I will share my thoughts on how Tesla's stock price will perform after the delivery announcement. Anyway, I believe Tesla's stock price will perform well following the delivery figures. Of course, investor sentiment is currently poor, as Tesla's recent stock performance has been bad and Balance recently published an article forecasting a negative outlook for this year's EV market.

18. The stock has dropped quite significantly for three consecutive trading days. However, precisely because it has fallen that much, I think it could be considered that the price has already been priced in to some extent. While the negative market sentiment caused by pressure from bond yields was a factor in Tesla's stock price falling over the past three days, the decline was largely due to anxiety that fourth-quarter deliveries might fall short of expectations.

19. Of course, a characteristic of Tesla is that no matter how you think it has already been fully priced in, they will deliver another shock and pull off an even bigger pull. There are certainly many possibilities, but since the current situation isn't just filled with bad news but also mixed with some promising positive factors, I think the probability of the stock price performing reasonably well is higher.

20. Okay, then I think we can wrap up today's video here. As I mentioned at the beginning of the video, I will be posting on the membership board between 11:00 PM and 11:20 PM tonight, and if there are any new opportunities for buying, I will enter the trade immediately. So, for those of you who usually participate in my real-time buying and selling, please make sure to check the membership community board during that time.

21. Well then, I hope you all have a great day, and for the membership members, I will see you again tonight when the US market opens. Thank you. Oh