원문 보기
all right welcome back to two stupid gastric stocks i'm vinnie hi i'm dylan today we're gonna talk about michael bury has killed his tesla shorts he is out against tesla wow given up huh i know right it's been a major headline for the last like six months basically since you opened this trade or nine months but yeah so uh with that uh if you uh if you like this kind of entertaining stock learning content where there's two stupid guys who don't really know anything so give us a like and subscribe we'll get to it two super guys all right so actually i i didn't include it here but there's a you know the headline basically pretty short big short investor bury says he's no longer betting against tesla um this was communicated through a private email that he sent to cnbc cnbc had reached out to him about this and uh he responded to them and said that he is no longer uh betting against tesla that he has closed his position so we don't have to wait to the 13 f to do that that's kind of nice we don't yeah we still got another uh month or so before we get his 13 f filing but we we found out earlier because you know he told cnbc i tried to find the actual email because you know frankly if i found his email i would i would have sent him an email and said like hey you really want to come on this youtube channel okay yeah i agree that's this that would be the best possible thing for his career yeah right uh so this this is a one-year stock show of tesla um pretty solid what do you think of it since may here basically we call this like a power stock just just like cruising along just turning up yeah it's um it's definitely doesn't bode well that on friday i just uh took 100 of my account and short of tesla um no i'm just kidding that'd be really bad though uh yeah it's really grinding higher um definitely not ideal it does look like it's on not a lot of volume though so that helps a little bit that's true yeah i actually had a bearish bet i'm gonna talk about that in this video too on tesla which did not work out well for those of you don't remember uh this is this is what michael barry's position was this is as of the last quarterly filing uh he had you know one 10 000 uh put contracts basically against tesla shares representing underlying value of 731 million dollars at the shares he actually had a tweet that was kind of about this too he was talking about journalists uh he's like yeah he's like they totally blew this out of proportion was another quote from that cnbc uh email saying how uh you know if you want to become a journalist basically you just take a position that's worth a few hundred thousand dollars and you say it's worth a few hundred million dollars yeah pretty much because i i guess if you leverage how many shares it is it's that much but in reality it's not yeah and that is smart you will get more clicks exactly his strike price points to you know was probably pretty far away from the the money so that you know that's why it was only a couple hundred thousand dollars directly controlling up to 731 million dollars worth of shares but uh if you don't remember what a put contract is put contract basically gives you the right to sell underlying asset on a before expiration date at specified price uh so you're betting the stock price will go down um you're it's a defined risk trade in that the most you can lose is the value of your your book contract though right so you know you it's very asymmetric you can put up a little bit of money and potentially have very very large gains which is you know what berry's basically saying he's like this was a trade this wasn't actually a uh you know kind of major major push position for his account so he initiated the position back here in the first quarter of 2021 uh added to it throughout the second quarter 2021 and now we know he's out as of just about here right about the end of this chart is when he finally sent that email to cnbc we still all have the quality filings to uh back it up but you know uh i'd be unusual for him to lie about something like that publicly he could be out before that though because right because it that's just when they asked him exactly yeah he could have left after that big uptick um after he added yeah anywhere in this time period is when he could have left yeah because i would assume he would have left at break even maybe when he started the position so yeah it's hard it's hard to know i mean i i don't know exactly what hit there's so much unknown with this trade though but i mean it's interesting i definitely get the valuation play here that seems out of sorts um and you see like the how high the implied village volatility is for some of these stocks particularly like tesla uh so i get it i try to take advantage of a little bit of a tesla trade this week too or a couple weeks ago this is in our stem challenge i uh i sold the open the 800 call bought to open 805 as insurance so this is a um a uh call credit spread it's a bearish bet basically i'm betting that tesla would have stood below 800 before october 15th that didn't happen if you saw that it closed on friday at like almost 8 40.
8 40 yeah yeah yeah i might buy a foot or two that's real high man i know i know i know that's what i but you know it's it's funny though but like if you want to pull up the chart we'll look at the chart real quick because like to me it looked like it was like a a bull flag kind of configuration so i don't know why the hell i bet against it on a on a valuation standpoint at that point from a technical standpoint i thought it was going to go up and it did i don't know what i was thinking um you can't short-term trade valuations that makes no sense um but anyways i i collected 218 in premium i had to close it for 360 on wednesday i had fortunately i closed a little bit early otherwise i would have lost another 140 um so i was able to you know get out of this trade with about 142 loss which you know unfortunate but yeah that's the games you play yeah i guess i don't know you know valuation wins over the long term over the short term it's very much like a fun you know fundamental stock uh um you know kind of technical analysis that rules the roost i sort of speak so i don't know why i i i thought that i saw the juicy premiums i thought i could take advantage of it i get it here's the chart here's did where did you exit yeah they are at 843.
holy crap cheese yeah i i i was around eight eighteen somewhere in that ballpark like three so um the blue line down here is the rsi i just wanna see how long they usually stay up to this level yeah this might be a good short man whenever they're up here they never uh i'm not saying i'm gonna short it before anyone says anything i'm just i'm just thinking out loud this is not scripted yeah it was exactly no i thought table was probably gonna do it yeah but prior to this one if you look at it kind of that a7 triangle as it hits like uh uh up to 800 looks like it touched 800 a couple times it couldn't really hold it and then it just smashed right through it that's what i was looking at that is an ascending triangle vinnie yeah i'm not entirely clueless about stock think but i still made a incorrect bet for no reason whatsoever it does look like from at least here up it's going to break through an ascending triangle this is the level he's talking about if he knows it goes up sets a low up breaks sets a higher low than this one does it again and boom yeah so what why did i fight that dylan i don't know i i don't know either i wasn't watching the stock for like three weeks so i have no idea i couldn't you could have asked yeah no i knew that i it looked like i said the triangle to me but i thought the 800 level was going to hold i don't know why but i did yeah i mean they report earnings like uh i think next week too so you know there could be a big catalyst this might be a run-up to earnings and then maybe a sell-off after earnings it's a thought too but if it hits 900 i'm gonna short it with every dollar i have maybe probably not probably not shouldn't say that on a youtube thing all right guys let us know what you think about very kind of disclosing that he exited his tesla bear bet i'm curious what you guys think yeah all right thanks a lot guys
Comments 0