저자: ScottPower · 외국인
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시장이 6번 인하를 반영하다 현재 3회로 줄었고, 과열 우려 속 주가는 사상 최고 부근. 트레이드데스크(TTD)는 횡보 후 $85 콜 상승 베팅, 대만반도체(TSM)는 $140/$135 풋 매도로 $138 부근 매수 의향, 코스트코는 $750/$770 콜 스프레드로 740 회복 시 신고가 기대. 세 종목 모두 강세 관점이나 시장 전반은 신중.
다듬은 글
o the charts here to take us through the trades in person Scott bow is with us CEO of Prosper Trading Academy glad you are here so before we get to the names that you're focused on today how are you feeling about the market I mean we've been hitting some highs recently today a little bit of a mix bag we got in U at least some of our inflation news um what are you thinking you know it's it's a little dicey I feel it it's amazing to me that we're still you know at pretty much all time highs with all of the concern out there with inflation with the FED with you know the market was pricing in six cuts the Fed was three now they're both in three and maybe it's going to be less than three and forther so I'm I'm a little concerned I mean the economy is is doing well but I think the market is ahead of itself I see so feeling like it's a little froy um first name that you have here is trade desk um tell me a little bit about this story and why it jumped out at you when I see it here right now it's at $8.97 it's hit that high gapped up yep um to 94 bucks what are you thinking about this name so this is a stock that has been consolidating for the last two three weeks literally it's been in such a tight band and when we see that typically we'll look for a breakout one way or the other when I look at trade desk it's very closely tied to meta I think it's it's closely tied to the Tik Tock issue that came out today today and I'm looking actually for a break higher to me there's not a lot of downside here maybe 7677 I'm looking for that move back exploding back out maybe not to those highs of 94 or so but I think 8788 is very reasonable so what I'm actually doing because option implied volatility is very very cheap right now I'm buying March 28th so going out a few weeks 85 strike calls you do that somewhere right around 90 cents a or so I think that's a very very cheap play to the upside for a stock that can ride the coils of meta right okay um Nita by the way reiterates a buy rating on trade desk maintains a $100 price Target at the end of February they had that if you had put $1,000 in uh trade desk and bought that 5 years ago it'd be worth $4,100 today Ben tell me a little bit about trade desk and the chart here yeah I like the bullishness I like the level Scott's watching as well let me show you why let's begin with uh that uh rally that you mentioned that pop Nicole The Gap up that we saw the spike and how we've kind of come off since so not necessarily what the Bulls were looking for last time we looked at shares of TTD it was trading around this $90 level we were talking about the trend up off the January lows and how we were currently in this horizontal phase balancing around 90 look what's happened since this was middle of February we were talking about this and you can see uh what's played out uh uh since then a little bit more of price Decay and not necessarily what the Bulls wanted to see but still holding up above a key level of support around 72 so take another step back because what I think might be happening is we could just be possibly forming a bit of a wider range around this $86 level scottt mentioned 87 88 I think it was a key area that he's got his eye on so I think that's significant we could actually see a little bit of a lift here and still remain within this range as long as we hold above 72 though it does appear as if the Bulls are in charge we're looking at a a 30-minute candle chart here going going back to those lows that we saw when was that again that was back in beginning middle of January I should say down around that $60 level let's take another step back add a little time on you're going to see again why I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to the Bulls in this instance last time we were talking about how uh price activity up and through 70 favored the Bulls Target to retest of those November 21 highs up around 115 but again pulling off that recent test of I think what jumps out here is the possibility for a head and shoulders pattern but still giving the benefit of the doubt to the Bulls in this instance with this longer term Trend to the upside want to show you where we are relative to the 50 the 200 day moving average here's the Gap Nicole mentioned here's a spike High to 94 here's a limited follow through we just identified here's the range that we've been in for a while so this is acceptance here yeah a bit of a disappointment that we didn't get more energy more conviction uh with that pop but still appears as if the Bulls are in charge here okay so he had he's on the same page with you you know the bulls in charge all right we can leave it with that that right I mean any final thoughts on this one I think this is a very inexpensive way to play the upside here because option volatility is so cheap at this point and again I love stocks or Commodities whatever it is I'm looking at where we see that coiling we see that big consolidation ahead of a bigger move right and and pertaining to Tik Tok I mean the question is will there be a sale will there be a ban you did have a passed in the house for the vote there so um this is an ongoing developing story let's take a look at Taiwan semi obviously has been a great performer one year it's up about 62% it's around those highs not not too far off it's annual highs here of 158 and change your thoughts on this one yeah and certainly the semispace the AI space is probably a little bit overextended there's no question about it however the fact that Taiwan semi is off of those highs that you just talked about um I think is an opportunity to get back in to make a run back up one 45 is really the level I'm I'm watching and it's trading below there today I know it's down a couple dollars 142 today exactly it's down a couple dollars but I think this is a really good opportunity to to play getting back to those highs unlike TTD though where optioned volatility implied volatility is really cheap it's actually very expensive in Taiwan semi so I'd play this a little differently I'm looking at selling a puts spread instead um and I can do the March 28 again going out a few weeks sell the 140 135 put spread and collect a nice premium of about $2 or so so that gives me a break even out a couple weeks of 138 if Taiwan semi gets back down to 138 and we're not that far away from it I'm a buyer anyway so that's why I like that that play right you would load it up there okay so your thoughts on Taiwan semi please benstein yeah I think Scott said 145 I got my eye on 143 but that definitely that same let's begin with some of the conviction we've seen as of recent it did sell off right possibly just stacking up for another longer term buy opportunity for the Bulls that have been rewarded handsomely but first and foremost that move lower from 158 uh big conviction move lower all the way sideways and you can see we've been sort of balancing more overlapping and rotational some of that selling is kind of slowed here take a look as that area is formed right around this 143 level you can see pretty well defined right High conviction on the left side of your screen and then sideways overlapping rotational value forming at this new lower level so not what the Bulls want to see but let's take a step back add a little time on you're going to see uh quite the different depiction playing out here right this one's bottom left top right we got a daily candle chart queued up here and we're looking at the rally we've seen all the way up and through that $100 level into most recently again we just looked at that upper level extreme up around 158 let's take a look here as we queue up a daily candle chart here and just taking a look here at uh hold on one second this might be it this is it the areas of consolidation that formed at higher and higher levels so Scott was mentioning 155 it looks like we might be balancing around this 150 level I mentioned 153 being significant but well- defined buold Trend here right where values forming at upper and upper levels here easily identifiable on this chart one more look at shares of TSM here and this time I added a 50 or 200 day moving average so you can see where they are relative to those closely watch levels a retest of the 50 back in the beginning of this year since then look at this catapult off of that nowhere near the 200 that comes in way below down around 102 again another example of how I can see why Scott's seeing the bullish side of things here it it seems like the Longs are in charge all right final thoughts I mean look he's on the same page too and look the the ai5 when you think about all the names that were related to AI have done so well and you know the the questions today were about EV is is EV done is EV Euphoria dead but AI seems to be the trend that still goes is that right it it is a trend it is it is the spotlight if you will but you have to look at best-in class which we're going to talk about next also and Taiwan semi is for sure best in class so that's the one if if you believe in AI if you believe in that future that's a stock you need to be interested in all right up next we have an outperform rating uh TD Cowan has on Costco you're looking at Costco hit a recent High another great performer your thoughts on Costco today so as I just mentioned I like companies that are best in class and there's no question to me that in the retail space Costco is Best in Class on their earnings last week or ear you know just a few days ago um the stock it had to have the absolute perfect report to keep that momentum from those all-time highs they had a really good report and I think it gave people an opportunity to just you know sell a little bit and now it's in a reset mode I am looking at this area here you know right around 720 725 here 740 actually is the 20-day moving average if we can recapture that I think we really make a nice run up back to those alltime highs so I'm going to give myself a little bit more time on this one and I'm going to go out to April expiration I've got about 6 weeks or so and I'm buying the 750 770 call spread for about $5 or so great reward to risk and again if if Costco can recapture that 740 level or so I think we get to those all-time highs again yeah in meantime so different from that of Dollar Tree I mean that's down in 10 tanking 14% closing stores yeah right a different story in retail um so your thoughts here on Costco today looking at the charts and technicals Ben three here today Scott because uh I can see the bullish uh lean on this one as well very similar to what we just looked at in terms of Taiwan semiconductor when you're looking at that short-term price activity Scott mentioned here the good report but not such a good reaction too from investors right you can see that stock sold off here from just around that 790 level down to well we'll call it around 720 730 you can see how we've been much more sideways since after a high conviction move lower this stock has accepted value at a lower level lower extreme right now around 7-Eleven but take a look here as balance forms again a very granular look at Price activity but the area I'm watching right now is 7:30 you've got a well- defined upper extreme lower extreme High conviction on the left side of your screen and then just acceptance of this new lower level but much like Taiwan semiconductor this could be possibly stacking up for a longer to buy because take a look the Bulls are in charge on this one when you're looking at the daily candle chart you can see uh first and foremost the rally we've seen going all the way back to we're talking July of 2019 look at this areas of consolidation three of them very well defined are we possibly going to start to form a fourth up at this upper level that's exactly what the Bulls want to see right some sort of a overlapping rotational type price activity they don't want to see a vtop they want to kind of lose some of this momentum to the upside that we looked at on that more granular F minute time frame and uh just kind of uh firm up a little bit here but if so very much in line with this trend we're seeing here and very much indicative of how uh the Longs are getting rewarded on Costco take a step back and look at the daily chart Scott I think you mentioned the 20 moving average I've got the 50 CED up here basically right at the same spot here right where we just recently tested keep an eye on that level uh ultimately and as I mentioned the possibility for a bit of something a little bit more overlapping rotational to play out here but yeah we haven't been below the 200 200 day moving average you can look back on this chart since the spring of last year this is a stock that has rewarded the bowls handsomely again Nicole for sticking with this one all right thank you for all of that Ben lickstein there on the charts final thought from you scop power I know I said I'm a little bit cautious in the market and here I came out with three individual stocks that I'm pretty bullish on so I think you have to pick and choose and and overall I I I don't know that anybody can predict what the FED is really going to do what the market is pricing in so you know I if you want to stay long equi in this Marketplace that's great just make sure you buy protection because even though uh volatility the vix is up off of the lows that we've seen you know over the last month or so uh it's still historically fairly inexpensive all right yeah you Ed the word dicey I think at the top of the show that it's a you know did just shows some apprehension all right thank you so much Scot power it's great to have you prosper Trading Academy CEO there and also our own Ben lonstein on the charts
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