TSMC (TSM) Shares Up Over 60% Y/Y

요약 보기

TSMC는 파운드리 점유율 약 60%로 반도체 제조의 핵심이며, 지정학 리스크와 미국 내 생산 확대 정책(연방 보조금)이 긍정 요인이다. 최근 3년 고점 돌파 후 아직 과열은 아니며, 재고 조정 이후 향후 이익 성장(EPS +11%, 매출 +12%) 전망이 밝다. 번스타인은 목표가를 125에서 150으로 상향하고 아웃퍼폼을 유지했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. let's bring in George Tillis senior Markus correspondent George we're talking Taiwan semi hit all-time highs last Friday pulling back a little bit but at the same time George I was looking at some data um uh you know they they control about 60% of the 600 billion dollar semiconductor Market as far as foundary services so build they're building the chips here George this is one of those companies that the other chip makers can't do without right oh absolutely I mean this is this is really the core I mean you have to obviously you know look at design of Technologies Nidia obviously is a fantastic designer of Technologies so is AMD and Intel but then you have to think about foundaries and Manufacturing and that's what uh what that's what semic Taiwan semiconductor does they have it's pretty remarkable as you mentioned 60% global market share for for manufacturing it's incredible the other larger competitors out there include Samsung and Korea so this is not only a strategically important company from a private sector standpoint of manufacturing but I think for the global for the world it's a strategically important company especially Taiwan where we know there's always been this sort of geopolitical risk and tension associated with the US and China and not to mention you know uh there's a lot of funding going towards a Taiwan semiconductor from the United States to uh to re onshore manufacturing here in the United States uh if you look at the uh the next potential $5 billion Federal grant that is providing semi Taiwan semiconductors uh funding for for Planet Arizona that's to be expected Intel recently got a grant so my point is is you can actually see policy moving in the direction to help show up semiconductor production here in the United States much like you know if you look at the last you know 10 to 15 years look at policy uh for oil production we're the largest producer of oil now in the world so I think this is something that's important here uh for this company I think the other thing is uh it's not too extended uh if you look at it it really just recently broke above a three-year High uh I'm going to put AMD in that same camp uh with stocks that again have made huge moves but aren't extremely extended like uh Nvidia and maybe super micro computers which we talked about I think a couple times on this program but nonetheless uh one of the things I noticed about Tai ON Semiconductor is if you look at last year sales in total the last four quarters were down about 42% to 70 billion versus 7 4.5 billion the previous year and earnings growth was actually down about 7% but everything forward looks rather positive for the name with 11% earnings growth alongside about about 12% Revenue growth so I think this is a situation where uh Taiwan semi got caught up in this inventory glut and that includes things like mobile chips uh you know Dam chips and so forth uh but now you know everything looks pretty Rosy from a forward standpoint Point especially with the resumption of profit growth for this company which again is strategically a point important for the world but also is a very profitable company and with that said you know Bernstein uh today increased their price tet to 150 from 125 and maintains an outperform rating yeah uh and George you know they've got Nvidia as the as their uh you know uh customer they've got qualcom they've got Apple Apple trying to take some chip building uh inh housee but in simplest terms chip foundaries are expensive and they're hard to build and that's part of the problem right George so in the near term Taiwan semi seems to be the go-to especially now with this explosion of AI that hey they're going to be confined for a few years at least because Intel's and Taiwan semi's new plant in in Arizona that they're trying to get built those are a couple years off from uh actually producing chips right yes sure absolutely and look uh you have to think about the expensive nature of building manufacturing chip sh is very expensive but Taiwan is a remarkably profitable company you know their net profit margins are like 39% which speaks of the demands that um the world has on this company so uh the thing about it is is they're exposed across all facets of semiconductors you know Apple CPUs it's not just nvidia's gpus in fact if you think about Nvidia you know they generate around 60 billion dollars in sales Apple generates about 360 billion in sales about six times the revenue so Apple's a strategically important company we know that they faced some challenges in sales and I think that's one of the reasons why Taiwan semiconductor hasn't been formed on a sales basis but everything is looking forward uh you know coming up in the next year or two uh from a cyclical semiconductor standpoint and that includes the GPU technologies that they produce for NVIDIA yep uh this is definitely one to watch it's pulled back the last since hting those alltime highs just last Friday uh down again uh today about three and a half % even with that price Target hike out of Bernstein that you mentioned all right great stuff thanks to George Tillis senior markets correspondent here breaking down TSM