저자: JessicaInip · 외국인
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S&P500·나스닥 신고가 배경을 AI 생산성 기대감으로 설명. 일라이 릴리는 GLP-1 시장 점유율 확대 기대로 장기 보유 추천, 현 766 부근 기술적 횡보 후 상승 흐름 평가. 브로드컴은 AI 서버 수요 급증(전분기 대비 80%)과 소프트웨어 예약 증가를 근거로 조정 시 매수 기회로 제시. 애플은 중국 매출 감소·EV 중단 등 악재에도 AI 잠재력과 장기 경영 효율을 들어 장기 보유 긍정적. 세 종목 모두 기술적 차트 분석(Ben)과 옵션 전략(Jessica) 병행.
다듬은 글
hrough the charts here to take us through the trades Jessica inip director of product and education at options play good to see you this morning so how are you feeling about seeing records for the NASDAQ and the S&P today and this week I think it's so interesting I actually paid attention ever so closely to the hearing that we had with fed Powell yesterday and I really like to attribute it to those Taylor fans it's it's just what the swifties do dissecting those words trying to understand if there's any indication but what I took away from that is he needs to see consistent data but not better data and I saw that to be much more D doish than usual and I think that attributes to this rally but everything really points back to AI that increase in productivity it's like a big puzzle that's coming together that supports these rallies yeah yeah understood I mean there's a lot of hype on AI and all different themes that we've been seeing a more of a broad-base rally people have been noting this week you're turning your attention over to Pharma and looking at Eli Lily Jessica why is that absolutely Nicole I know you know the hype because you're always on top of everything the gp1s taking the World by storm and we're in the midst of a technology Revolution and a medical Revolution and they're all going to be integrated at some point but yeah so those scripts are in demand it's 14% Year over-year from data that was pulled from bva Global Research and from the gp1s demand specifically it's 14% obesity and 86% diabetes and I know there was a lot of talk about Nova versus Eli Lily those two powerhouses that don't have the entire glp1 market shares in their other players but they certainly have 99% of it Nova owns the majority of it about 54% but I think Eli Lily is on the on the road and on the path to gain more of that market share due to their lay approval of zound so I think that's a good one to add to your longer term Port all right one to watch it's at 766 today Ben um your thoughts Ben yeah this is uh one that's been trending higher across multiple time frames and uh uh one where the chart really Stacks up and it's supportive of the fundamentals that Jessica just laid out here I wanted to begin with just some of the price activity we've seen Nicole since the beginning of the year a very well defined Trend up you can see migration value to the upside you can see areas of consolidation where the markets pause and kind of regain composure but we're currently balancing right around the 765 level so again forming a bit of a area of consolidation here now I went ahead and looked it's been a while since we looked at shares of ly in fact last time we looked we had established a bit of a balance area that was forming around this 560 area it looks like it was beginning middle of November last year well I think what we can do is we can establish that well this became a bit more elongated right so we can just kind of draw this line out here and this just kind of gives you a little bit of a snapshot in terms of how we evolve these charts as the trend in this instance has continued higher and take a look here you can see that we've now moved away from that 560 balance right here and vertical move to the upside and you can see again that we're currently balancing around 765 so let's take another step away from this uh 4-Hour candle chart so we've gone from looking at the year's price activity to looking at the move up off the lows from well we'll call it March April of last year again 330 up to this current level and take a look here one more chart I just want to show you what's going on with the weekly time frame because we've now drawn this chart out going all the way back to we're talking the spring of uh 2021 look at this well-defined trend higher you can see the significance Associated this balance around 765 that we're forming right now and yeah again just a multiple time Ray trending higher supportive of the fundamental narrative Jessica laid out all right understood and I want to hear more about your specific trading idea on this one Jessica yeah absolutely so I think it's a great time whenever we see any pullbacks or we're even getting on those alltime highs when we're looking at options I like to look at Cash secured puts or bull put spreads when I'm trying to add to my longer term portfolio because this is a little bit higher priced we can sell a put like we normally would to buy the security but then buy a further out of the money put just to mitigate any risk so that's the way that I'm structuring this trade it's not too directional it's neutral to Bull and I think it's important when we layer on the complexity of options that we also have to understand time frame and price targets and that's why it goes so well with Ben's technicals as well yeah understood um when we look at broadcom I mean a lot of people look to broadcom for AI um that touch of it as well your thoughts on broadcom which reported its numbers and is down about 4 and a half% today that it is so when it reported its numbers it looks like that the pipeline wasn't as highly as anticipated however I think they have a strong pipeline that's something that some pull forward demand that we're seeing within their earnings that we dig into the details that could H perhaps could some raise some concerns but everything points back to AI I think it's going to continue to do so and this is the the narrative that goes in addition to Nvidia and I really wanted to bring Nvidia today however I talk about it too much sometimes um but looking at broadcom it happen uh yeah no I understand I understand yeah go ahead yeah so but butell had a really good quarter that's surprised me I don't know if that surprised you Nicole but they had an 80% increase of quarter over quarter demand for AI servers that's not year over-year that was quarter over quarter and that that just shows me that we're in this transition from the the b2c that was there but we're having those large language models that are being created and the resources that are needed to go broader to B2B which actually takes some time so I think any pullback is a great opportunity to add to to add to their portfolio so they have an a strong AI pipeline even though it was softer they have software bookings that are looking to nearly Double Quarter over quarter to about $3 billion in quarter two and they've got their VMware sales expected to grow 10% quarter over quarter every quarter so I think there is a lot of upwards momentum that is still there for broadcom because we need those data servers just as much or maybe a little bit less in those Nvidia chips all right Ben take a look at the chart of broadcom for us please yeah I heard Jessica mention the strong pipeline a couple times and I think uh what we're seeing in terms of price activity is probably a reflection of how investors have real strong demand for shares of avgo and while I think a lot of people like Jessica are a little bit concerned about how much we've been talking about Nvidia this is probably one of the names to keep an eye on in the coming weeks as we see strength here as well take a look first and foremost well- defined Trend up I've got a hourly candle chart and similar to our look at Lily we're just going to start with the beginning of the year price activity we've seen well- defined migration of value in this instance three areas where the market kind of pause regain composure you can see that vertical separation which Stacks up and provides this pretty well- defined staircase type pattern right easily identifiable bottom left top right the thing I'm noticing is we're kind of working our way into the lower extreme of this range that we've been in around 1380 so that could be stacking up for another buy opportunity for those that want to participate in this longer term trend of the upside otherwise you basically have to wait for a breakout to the upside which is a bit more aggressive approach towards trading it so again I like to look for that failed attempt that the lower extreme in an upward trending environment to try and participate you basically hold on hope it continues and in this instance that's what the Bulls have been doing and they've been rewarded handsomely for it take a look we're adding a little time on this going back to May of uh 2020 beginning of 2021 you can see or I'm sorry 2019 beginning of 2020 you can see welldefined Trend higher stock bottomed out around 150 155 look at this recently topping out at 1438 I mean a very well- defined Trend environment here daily candle chart here again going back to uh the spring of 2020 2019 take a look here one more chart just to really emphasize the high conviction associated with this move up that we're seeing right now you can also see where the market kind of paused and sort of uh took a breath but at this point after breaking out of this 840 range look at this you've seen a big vertical move up here higher highs and higher ow with conviction this is an example of a stock where the Bulls appear to be in charge here Nicole and again kind of stacking up and feeding into that fundamental narrative that we've seen as far as Tech and some of these individual names associated with it uh yeah and when we think about uh the Bulls here and broadcom I mean all these AI names have certainly gotten a lot of love we have the ai5 I was looking at those names right broadcom AMD Nvidia Microsoft and Taiwan semi um tell me a little bit about how you think this one's where it's headed it's down 4% today at 1344 Jessica what's your idea about a trade for this absolutely so this is where this is a expensive stock in terms of price not valuation so when we're utilizing options this could be utilized as a sense of Leverage now you know again it increases risk but there's leverage that you can utilize to have less Capital because it is a $1,300 $1,400 stock so doing a call spread you buying the 1340s so slightly in the money below the current market price selling the 1580s and I'm going out about 45 days to April 19th that's going to cost me $6,000 altogether but the way that I'm structuring that is I am allowing myself to capitalize on additional capital appreciation so as broadcom reaches 1580 I've capped my Max gain potential there so my Max reward is actually about $188,000 altogether with a cost of 6,000 and when we're Trading options from a leverage perspective I want to make sure that that risk to reward is very skewed in the reward favor and this was favorable in terms of options pricing hence the way I structured it all right thank you for that and then when you take a look at Apple which people love for the long term I mean they have loved it forever but the shareholders have not been rewarded in the same way as some of the other Magnificent Seven of late there's just been some headlines some headwinds um you know no great product just a lot of bumps in the road of late for Apple right epic games the sales are falling in China but you know I had a guess yesterday who said look I still like apple for the long term so tell me a little bit about how you view Apple today Jessica absolutely and I agree I I love Apple for the long term and we need to take a look at the headlines but also take a step back and see through the trees so if they have decreasing S Sales because of Huawei and they were down I believe it was 24% they also have increased Market in India so there's other opportunities that can make up for that as well as the increased in services and revenue that we saw their last quarter but if we take even a step back further going back even to the pandemic Apple was one of the tech Darlings that did not overhire during Co covid and subsequently did not have to have a large amount of layoffs and that shows to me that they have good management structure and that's something that I I would love to stand behind so when we have headlines with the dropping the EV sales well they're sending cash elsewhere and if you're running a company that's very smart to do is to make sure that you're always optimizing if it's not working for you move on to the next one so I actually see that as a positive in that downturn once we find support is a great way to to add these items to your longer term portfolio and I I know I'm ranting there for a little bit Nicole but it's it's an AI sleeper they've had a AI chat GPT model since July of last last year and on top of that if you can actually go to they have a a research and Learning and Development site themselves there are so many job openings on there which tells me that they're doing something got WWDC in June I'm adding on to this longer term portfolio because something is coming and when it comes we'll see we'll we'll definitely see a rally in my opinion yeah it's funny you're the second person this week who thinks Apple has something up their sleeve pertaining to AI um we know that some of the people that were in the car business there uh got moved over others will be laid off but no more EV car from Apple that development is done um but moving on let's take a look Apple chart 171 Ben well let's queue up the more granular time frame I have here it's an hourly because Jessica was talking about when something happens uh well we're going to see it happen when we see a change in terms of price activity it's going to occur first on that hourly candle chart so far I think this is tying into what Jessica was talking about in terms of broad comma pretty well defined uh scenario that's playing out we have a good risk reward scenario because on the short term we're trending lower but on the longer term that bullish uh uh longer term trend is still intact here let's begin first and foremost as mentioned with a hourly candle chart and you can see of the two three names we looked at this is the one that's been on the decline right since the beginning of the year stock topped out just shy of 200 you can see three areas of consolidation that formed at lower and lower levels currently balancing around 70 but look we're testing the upper extreme of that potentially starting to form a bit of a bottom take out one 4 and you're really reversing this downtrend that we've seen but at this point again on the hourly still looks like the Bears are in control here but we'll see if we're starting to reverse that here over the next couple days let's keep an eye on that the reason I'm giving the benefit of it out to the longer term Bulls is because of this chart and the next one we're going to pull up here in just a second let's just get a daily candle chart queued up here we're going back to uh beginning of last year January stock was trading those lows if we remember down around 126 well- defined areas of consolidation that formed at higher and higher levels now I did adjust this chart a bit because at one point uh in the previous discussions regarding Apple we had drawn a balance area right in that area around 175 174 but with the recent tests lower here recent test of 164 I think this is uh the area to watch and this is kind of just evolved into a larger area of consolidation that's formed here let's take a step back so we're we're looking at 164 in terms of that longer term trend of The Upside it Still Remains intact I see that playing out here as well on the uh weekly candle chart we're going all the way back to April of 2018 here again a stock that's done very well for the Bulls long term you can see again coming under pressure here right now in its way towards the lower extreme range but still holding up above 155 basically not what the Bulls want to see in terms of this recent move back into this 170 175 area but could be again longer term buy opportuni providing a pretty good setup for a good risk reward opportunity if you're looking to play Apple in that longer term play this trend pretty well defined here this is a weekly chart again going back back uh we're talking to uh the spring of 2018 Nicole pretty well defined bottom left to top right here this is what you want to see when you're looking for a trend yeah and look I mean it hasn't gone crazy like some of the other names Jessica final thoughts here I think it's a great Point Nicole it hasn't gone crazy like some of the other names so I'm waiting for that to happen but love the weekly view when we're going long term and yeah I agree all right great to see you both we'll leave it right there Jessica in skip and Ben lickstein for the big three today thank you so much
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