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And I also have a quote that Sir, the person in this world who earns money in the stock market only when you invest in the bear market. Does not earn huge wealth. One can earn money but cannot earn huge wealth. That happens only when you invest in a crisis or a bear market. So this has been proved after Covid that whatever wealth people have created is because of investing in the crisis.
Yes Vijay Sir, a lot of concerns were being raised about the valuations because it is being believed, although we are talking that our earnings visibility is very good for the next two to three years and as per India's growth story, corporate earnings will perform very well, but again it is also heard that no, the Indian markets are quite stretched, some concerns are being expressed about the valuations from the side of foreign investors, do you believe that it is possible, see when we talk about the stock market, we are talking about 5000-6000 shares, all the 5000 shares do not have the same valuation.
Everyone's valuation is different, everyone's valuation is different sector wise. Company wise it is different. Position wise it is different. So the valuation of every sector is different. So I also feel that the valuation may be very high in some sectors. But there will be some sectors in which the definition of high valuation is different.
Madam, let us define valuation as what was the valuation 2 years ago, 1 year ago. Look, this valuation has happened today. You have to see him aligning with the growth of his company. The company has also grown so much [nasal sound]. What growth has the company achieved after the PE and valuation that it had two years ago and what is the possibility of growth in the next two to four years.
So the valuation of the market is not due to the past. Market valuations are always based on future earnings. So it is possible that in some pockets the valuations here may be higher. But there will be some pockets where the valuation is reasonable. I would not say that some things in the market are very cheap or some are available at throwaway prices.
It is not like that. This is a matured market but it is a reasonable valuation and if it is calculated as per future discounting then it will seem like yes brother, it is okay, this is not something that you will think is frothy. Yes Vijay Sir, generally your portfolio is running as per your name. But Sir, sometimes phases come when you see defeat in your portfolio and you feel that if you had sold at that time, you might have got a good profit.
The value of your investment is also very high. So Sir, how do you face that period when like one of your shares was at double or triple price and the market broke down, there was a run reversal cycle and your share came to the same price where you had bought it or came around that price. No, look at it simply, this is the mental state of the market.
The mental state of the individual investor is how you look at these things. I feel that I have learnt something from these things in my life. I have learnt from experience that all those things do not matter to me. I often give examples like, suppose you have to go from Delhi to Agra. For example, consider a 500 km.
Someone is sitting in the train. Suppose you are travelling 100 km. Or sometimes your train reaches a station early. If the train ever reaches the next station late, will you get off the train? Will you get off the train? Will you catch another train? This doesn't happen, right? If my goal is big and if my goal seems to be for four to five years then I feel that this has decreased or this has increased or it has come back to that value or it has doubled or tripled.
These things do not make much difference to me in my mental psyche because my goal is something different. It is a long term goal and actually I do not have any time target or price target in whatever I invest. If this doubles, I will sell it. Why would I sell it? There have been many shares which have increased 30-30 times, 40 times, one of my shares has increased 16,000 times, sir.
It has happened 16,000 times. Not 16,000 percent. This has happened 16,000 times in the last 17-18 years. So I have this greed that maybe my other shares may also increase 16000 times or say 500 times or 100 times or 50 times, then these prices do not matter to me. As long as his story is intact, as long as the story is intact in that sector, I remain with him and do this, sir.
Sir, our markets have shown a lot of very good response. Despite the fact that FIs are not that invested in our market. If you look at the last one year, he has done a lot of selling. Although he had returned in two-three months, he is not returning now and there are some factors behind it. Global headwinds are geopolitical tensions, high yields, high interest rates, high inflation.
So now it seems necessary for the whites to come to our market. I mean to what extent do they play an important role in our stock markets? No ma'am, I feel like I had written a song six months ago. It was also described in that that the current atmosphere of FIFI, the dominance that they had established, their fort is also collapsing and the participation of retail is increasing so rapidly in the market that now they do not have that much importance.
Right now they are selling every day. Goods worth Rs 50,000 crore, Rs 1,500 crore, Rs 2,000 crore are sold. But you see that the market still does not talk about it at all these days. In a few days, they will stop talking to anyone else. So I do n't think they have that much importance and there are many other reasons behind selling them.
Understand that those who have 12 children have to take care of 12 children. Those who have one child have to focus on only one. So for me, Girdhar Gopal, others, for me it is the Indian market only. All in all, this is the whole thing. So this is what I have to focus on? So these people have to focus everywhere.
This has to be done in Bangladesh also. China sometimes takes it out here, sometimes takes it out there, sometimes keeps it here. So that is their order, their work. Right now their dominance in the market is ending. Yes Vijay Sir, if you start thinking like FI, like Indian market is available at good valuation or Chinese market or anything, I mean you invest in India.
You just told me but sir if I look at the markets across the world then which market do I feel that yes it is okay, it is at a reasonable price or India is a bit expensive in comparison to that, no it is India's time, my song is also brother, right now there is nothing except India, there is nothing ahead or behind, there is no place to go, yes there is no such peace anywhere in the world, there is no such growth anywhere in the world, there are no such entrepreneurs in the world, there are 36 such companies in the US whose CEOs or second and third level Indians are running them, so I feel that this is the Amritkaal of India.
India's future is very bright in these 10-20 years. There is no need to go anywhere. You cannot even invest money outside. One and a half lakh or two and a half lakh dollars because there is a limit on how much a person can invest. And why should a small investor do anything, you will invest Rs 10,000, 50,000, 2 lakhs.
Which arrow will you hit in that? If you don't understand that thing then it is gambling. You invest in something that you don't understand. So it means you are gambling, if you are gambling then you have to go to Delta, Goa itself is very big, sir, why do we have to go there, we have to go to America and we should stay at the place where we think is better and there is growth there, not because I am saying this with some patriotic feeling, that is definitely there, the patriotic feeling, but I am not saying this for the reason that India has the biggest growth in the entire world, our growth story is absolutely amazing and after 7 trillion, now we have kept 40 trillion, by 2055 India will reach 50 trillion dollar economy, Vijay sir, this past year has been very good for small caps and mid caps, returns of more than 30 percent and if you talk about mutual funds also, there too there are fabulous returns that the small cap and mid cap funds have given.
Do you think it is time to move towards large caps where most of the stocks did not actually perform well? Are you doing something with large caps in your portfolio or are you happy with mid caps? No, I am happy in mid cap. I am a middle class man. I am happy with mid-caps. This large cap etc. which you can understand is mostly for big HAI people or for those who need liquidity.
Those who also have to leave quickly. For FIIs who want to invest big money, there is opportunity for them in mid cap, but there is no opportunity to invest money because there is not that much liquidity. Saying this they invest in large cap and I do not think that I should invest any money in large cap, mostly I mean 99% I am in no mood to invest any money in large cap and I am happy in mid cap.
Maybe even within my shares, as I mentioned earlier, the valuation was cheap. Right now that valuation is fine. That is the average reasonable valuation. Might be a little on the expensive side. Not everything is 50-50 in the stock market. Yes, here nothing can be weighed on a scale. Up and down keeps going here.
Overvalued and undervalued keep going. Maybe if we talk about zero to 100, earlier it was at 20. Now the evaluation will be done in 55 or 60. It seems so. It will happen, understand. I have a lot of patience, ma'am. Not right now. Understand that March numbers will come after 6 months. Or by September 2024, they will start looking cheap.
Today's valuation. So I have to wait, so I am a traveler friends, I have neither home nor destination, I have to keep moving like this, so this is the caravan of yours, it has to keep moving, absolutely sir, sir, this election year is also a big year, the market experts focus a lot on this, sir, if something happens to change the regime, by chance, though there are no such possibilities right now, but has the market factored in this or will it do so or not, I do not think it has factored in this.
The markets believe that BJP will come and that is why the market is a point and this boom that you are seeing may be due to understanding this that people are not taking this thing into their calculations that Delhi is still a little far away and the time of elections may be a little far away from January, then the thought may start among the people that yes brother the time of elections has come and the results of the state elections will come in November, the results of the state elections which have just started will also come, that will also have some impact, so I think that today the market is understanding that BJP is going to come here.
If there is even a slight change in the sentiment and people feel that BJP may not come to power, then there is a possibility of a major recession in this market from here, this market may fall by 10, 15, 20%, the index may fall once and mid cap and small cap may fall by 25-25%. There is a possibility that BJP will not come.
For this the market needs stability. The market wants the same government to come back. Because we adjust ourselves. No matter which government comes, we adjust our nature and the biggest thing about the economy is that the uptrend that is going on in the economy, no government wants to come and disturb it.
If you pay attention, when Manmohan Singh's government came first, the Communist Party was with him, his Communist Party was an ally. When he was in power, the market fell once, but after that the biggest boom started, so the economy adjusts, the market adjusts. Vijay Sir, the best performing stocks from last Diwali till now have been PSC stocks, public sector stocks, be it PSU stocks, railway companies, defence-related companies, power companies.
We have seen this trend in all these sectors. What do you think, which of these sectors would you say that the trailer has just begun, the picture is yet to come? Understand the sectors you have named, understand defence, understand PSUs within it, understand railways, or whichever ones, or the power sector, has there been much boom in them?
Is. Yes, big NTPC shares are a little bit slow from the bottom. I will not say that the film has just started in these. If I say this a little, it will become a different matter. I think he has a bright future ahead of him. I feel that due to Make in India, they have the government's support for defence, the support for railways, the support for power sector, but if someone wants to work for the long term, who has a vision of 10 years, then there is no need to worry.
All these ups and downs will keep happening. So it doesn't seem like their picture has just started. Are these at reasonable valuations or are some of them at very expensive valuations? So should I correct it time wise [sound of clearing throat] or price wise. It is not necessary that they correct price wise.
Maybe he will consolidate in 6 months. Consolidate for 9 months. After that, they should catch up again in future earnings. This can also happen. Yes Vijay Sir, everyone sees your equity portfolio because it is available on many trackers and many websites. Sir, apart from that, you also invest in some other asset classes.
No, I have not made any meaningful investments in other asset classes. Of course, I have bought gold bonds to please my wife that yes brother, I have also bought a little bit of silver. But that is not meaningful. That is very less percentage wise as per my portfolio. But yes, I invest in real estate.
I have a roughly decent portfolio in real estate and you can call real estate my portfolio, it is not a little meaningful but it is okay, that is my portfolio and I think the major 90% of mine is probably in equity, 90% which may be within 10% right now, 6, 7, 8% in real estate, one or two%, all this, gold bonds and ETFs, silver, which is, have you identified any new sector, now you will buy only that in the new year, no [sound of clearing throat] I have not identified any new sector, ma'am, I have only identified the old one, which is infrastructure, I have always said many times, I have said it at many places, I feel that there will be a boom in infrastructure, 5 years, 10 years, I feel that the second phase of infrastructure in India, which was between 3 to 7 years before 2000, now it seems that it has started from 2022, these 7, 8, 10 years, I feel like this, see, I could be wrong, this is one This is speculation, it is an idea because no one can see the future.
No one knows what is going to happen tomorrow. But let's make an assumption. We do our work on an assumption. I feel that the next 7, 8, 10 years will be good for infrastructure and I also feel that this aviation sector, as per the way I go to the airport. I see crowds in planes at airports, just like people used to see at bus stands in the past, similarly airports have become like railway stations and bus stations, which is a good thing and what was earlier considered a luxury, like travelling in planes, has now become a necessity, so I think the future of the aviation sector, I think this is the beginning for the next 10 years, 5 years, but no one has made money in aviation, investors worldwide, so they should be done with a little understanding and apart from this, I like all my old sectors.
Ma'am, I like India's growth story. So I have a completely diversified portfolio. I also have investments in tourism. I also have investments in telecom and e-commerce companies. I feel that there will be all-round development, this will keep decreasing but this market will keep growing. Yes Vijay sahab, EV versus Artificial Intelligence and both, if you are allocating these two innovations that are happening here today, what versus what, should I say EV, EV exactly sir, yes electric vehicle, I mean yes, yes I have invested in electric vehicles, I have invested in an electric vehicle company, I feel, of course, they talk about every new thing, I am eager for every new thing.
So whatever new sunrise sector there is, whatever new idea there is, you should definitely work on it because in it your money becomes your soft. There is multiplication of money inside it. So off course I have no interest in AI. I don't understand that. I do n't even know which company is in AI. Of course, in the EV sector, I think whatever EV companies are working on it.
Their future is just beginning auspiciously. It is not known how many years the aviation will last, like 10 years, 20 years. must go on. This became a part of life. I mean, just like FMCG, this is now a part of life, similarly this is also a part of life, now Vijay Sir, how do you see this rush of SME IPOs because these are small companies, Manufactured in India, Made in India, there has been a lot of enthusiasm under Start Up India and the SMEs which are currently being invested in exchanges, it is possible that some of these companies may grow big and come on the main boards, so how do you feel if we talk about this sector of SME, MSME, no, in this I feel that all these companies are going to come on the main board eventually.
You should understand this back and forth because this is also the rule of exchange. Earlier there was a rule of three years. Now perhaps there is some laxity in that too that some things are not important. You can do it in 2 years also if particularly they should have more than so many thousand shareholders.
How many crores, 50 crores or what should be the net worth. Like this, they have made the rules very flexible. All the companies are ahead and behind because everyone has the same aspiration. Sooner or later, all this is going to come on the main board and there are 63 million SMEs in India, madam, 63 million, 6 crore 30 lakh like this.
So, if they get a chance, all of them can come for listing in the stock market. Yes, this is a rush and just like the gold rush, this is a market listing rush. Ask anyone, they feel that my company is getting listed. But there are many companies in this which may not be worth it, it is not known because I had invested in two companies within the SMA companies four years ago and they had done well for me, so I am very choosy in this and unless a company has a track record of 15-20 years, I do not invest in it, so I am not investing in SMEs right now, but it is not like that, there are some issues which give multiple returns, but the investor should do it very thoughtfully and after a little consideration, he should be a little cautious.
It is not that all the shares will turn out to be good in this. Like it is the same in the listed ones also. Even has to be with very careful. So one should be a little careful inside it. Because perhaps this much liquidity is not created in every share. First they do market making. What happens? There are many types of things inside it.
So that's a little once to be conscious. Vijay Sir, today the accounts of 80 million shareholders have become active in India. Sir, if you look at these numbers, where do you see them going in the next 5 years and what will be their impact? Meaning where do I see the mean index indices? Look, its index is not known because most of the time, the index is not like that, for example, today there is any X number of accounts, for example, in 5 years it may double, triple or quadruple, so it will not happen like that, for example, the valuation of any share, for example, if the PE ratio is 25 then it will not become 100, it is a pattern of the whole world, which is a scale, which is a matrix, it has to be followed accordingly, so you should understand that as the number of people is increasing, ah, you these investors are increasing.
You just look at the numbers as IPOs are coming. Like you, Maki Madam, were just talking about IPOs coming out, so more opportunities are coming up. More companies are also opening. So many investors will come in 5 years. Just imagine, if we come to know about the number of companies, we may come to know about it.
In 5 years, there may be 5000 companies which may get listed in the market. The number of companies that were listed in the last 100 years may also be listed in the next 5 years. It may be that what he means is [laughs] I do n't know, but this is not going to make any difference. You should also understand that the new investors who are coming, are they investors or traders, so first you will have to sort them out, how many traders are there in this, how many are future option holders, I think 90% of them are future option holders, they have opened accounts [nasal sound] I do n't know about them right now, what will be their condition, in the boom, all the geniuses think themselves heroes, in the storm of recession, the same geniuses again become zero, so it is like this that this is a period of boom and recession, then it will be known that when it is tested with the eyes, then it will be known whether the gold is pure or not.
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