저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 특정 종목 매수 권유보다는 투자 철학과 원칙을 설명하는 내용이며, 명시적인 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 거의 없다. [성장 산업(Sunrise) 투자 원칙] - 산업 내에서 가격결정력(pricing power)이 생기는 구조를 중시하며, 사양 산업(Sunset)은 피해야 한다고 강조. - 과거 통신 산업 사례: 90년대 이후 16개 통신사 중 구조조정을 거쳐 소수만 살아남았고, Jio 등장 이후 요금과 수익 구조가 바뀌었다고 설명. - 데이터 중심 통신은 '음식·의복·주거' 같은 필수재 성격을 가진 성장 산업이라는 관점. [Tejas Networks 투자 사례(과거 설명)] - 2019~2020년 코로나 시기 매수, 주가 약 40원 수준에서 진입했다고 언급. 현재는 약 900~800 수준으로 올랐다고 설명(과거 수익 설명이며 예측 아님). - 4G 수주 약 1.2만 크로어, 향후 5G 및 BSNL/BharatNet 관련 기회를 언급하며 스토리가 이제 시작이라는 긍정적 견해. - 장기 투자 관점에서 보유 중이라고 밝힘. [투자 방법론] - 기술적 분석은 트레이더에게 유용하며, 장기 투자자는 펀더멘털(성장성, 경영진, 산업 구조) 중심으로 보아야 한다는 입장. 차트는 보조 도구로만 사용. - 자산 배분에서 '노 그래비티 존(No Gravity Zone)' 개념 강조: 생활비를 주식 수익에 의존하지 않도록 별도 소득원을 확보해야 주식 하락기에 버틸 수 있다고 주장. [심리·리스크 관리] - 특정 종목에 대한 감정적 애착(sentiment)을 경계하고, 손절과 매도를 프로페셔널하게 해야 한다고 강조. - 과거 TRF(Tata 관련 종목) 사례: 고점 2200 부근에서 바로 팔지 못해 하락 후 900 등에서 매도한 경험을 교훈으로 제시. - 싸 보이는 주식이 '밸류 트랩(value trap)'일 수 있으며, PER만 보고 매수하지 말고 성장성 확인이 우선이라고 설명. - 은행주(PSU 은행 등) 및 소매금융 대출 확대에 따른 NPA 리스크 우려를 간략히 언급. [시장 전망] - 시장이 비싸졌다는 인식을 언급하나, 구체적 지수 방향 예측은 없음. - 신규 성장 산업(통신 6G 등 장기 기술 진화)에 대한 긍정적 장기 관점.
다듬은 글
5% minus. So when that market get. You will see that remains comes forward and then goes to feel that it way and if I have to do this work only and you will did not come at the last moment, so I had recited a four line poem there to Fundvis ji, Gol ji, I will recite iat poem, what I want to say there is a dialogue of Shahrukh Khan like you is that you choose an and .
As much as peak has come. There is a double top, Prakash ji is an expert, whose Deep is an expert, these people are great people sitting there, that new top, every new trend brings a new bull market, so then there is a new new high or new low, what we talk about higher top and higher bottom, this whole thing happens the same in life, so I had reci became the CM, the tea seller beca, tighten your wais, your business, at's my message to you.
Right now I can take your question and answer. Can do Q&A session. Thank you very much. No, not standing, okay. Be good, stay active. So if anyone wants to ask anything from us you can raise your hand and you can write your question on the chit and can send it to us. Mishra ji Vijay Kedia ji thank you so much sir my name is CA Prak Gadiya sir there was a question you told that when you do research you check sunrise industry and you should ensure to stay away from sunset industry so based on your past experience where you chose sunrise industry so what perspectives do you see from the Indian economy from the world economy giving an analogy that semiconductor industry is doing very well nowadays so what things did you see in your past experience in sunrise industry so people like us can you know get your guidance to think through it.
Let me tell you that of course now because the whole world has become globalized, it is interconnected. So what is happening in the world also depends on India. But there are some stories that we talk about. It is an India centric story. Domestic stories that we talk about. For example, I had recently taken Tejas Network during the time of Covid in 2019.
So, it is totally an India-centric story because let me tell you one reason why I have taken it in India because there were 16 telecom service providers at one time when these telecom companies were new, after 90-95, whenever they came, Achison, Maxvox, BPL, TPL, all together there were 16 companies, now as I said, when there are ups and downs, when any crisis comes, then a console, that sector gets completely consolidated, so we see who is left in it, now in a way, it has monopoly, let's say it is a bad word, but it has pricing power, which is a good word we use because of slang, because of that, pricing power comes to it, so you will see that after 95, after 2000, all the telecom companies were completely destroyed, they all kept shutting down and consolidating, by 2018, only two companies were left, Vodafone and B.
In 2016-17, in 15, perhaps Jio came and it changed the entire game there. Some pricing power came, the monthly rental of RPU started increasing, companies started earning, before this no one was expanding. If you look at the condition of telecom even today, people talk about 4G and 5G. Can you hear me brother?
Can you hear it? is listening? Okay, I'll return it. Let's talk on our mobile again. The situation is so bad as if we are still living in 97. So I applied this simple formula that all these companies were wiped out. Two have survived and they will continue to survive because the government will also protect them.
Vodafone was also ultimately taken over by the government with 35 taka equity and 40 taka equity because it was to save it. So, the terms used are that there are two and a half companies in telecom. Now Jio is left, B is left and Vodafone is left in half the company. So in 2019-20, I understood that now the government was talking about 2G.
At that time we had 2G. Talks started coming through 2G. 3G never came to India. After 2G, we migrated directly to 4G. This was done by Indian Jio. So they understood that now the government has also become focused that 5G has arrived in the entire world. Right now we do n't even have 4G. So for 4G, the government said, okay, you do it, we will do the spectrum.
We will help those who do not have it and I started feeling that without data there is nothing in this world. Even today, if you look at your phone, your voice bill is less. Whatever bill comes, it is for data only. So it is understood that this is a sunrise industry and this industry is just starting.
If the mobile comes for Rs 95 then I read somewhere that 10G testing is going on. We are talking about 5G. Okay, okay? Now talk of 6G has started. Now 6G will come in 2025-26. How fast will that be? I don't know what will happen inside this world. So I think we all will understand that whatever we talk about in telecom, it is the sunrise industry of food, clothing, shelter and data.
This can also be understood today that yes, maybe this is going to last for 10 years or 20 years. These will change its size. Its types will change. But this concept of telecom should remain. It seems like that today. So this is set. Then it seemed that only two and a half companies were left inside it and half of that was Indian Costly.
Jio was not listed. Vodafone was not to be taken. So what should I do if I want to go into that sector, then I was following a company like Tejas Network for the last four years. I had told many companies at one place that what I do is that when an old athlete who has made a great track record or an old company which has once set a record, then that company gets into trouble or after that the athlete falls a little sick, then I keep an eye on that athlete, when will he recover, when will his health get back to normal, when will the company turn around and I keep that company on my radar, I watch it and sometimes this watching of mine goes on for 4 years, 5 years, 6 years, 7 years also.
When I feel that there has been a turnaround in this sector and this company is also not dead for 7 years. The company has survived the problems of 7-8 years and in fact, it has made some progress. At that time, at the time of its turnaround, I take its shares which I told you. So I did the same thing in Tejas also, when I got all these, I understood.
Now its time has come because now Vodafone has also started saying that I have to expand something and need capital. B had already started expansion. Jio already had money and so I thought that if these people expand and upgrade themselves and I do not want to take over this company then I should take over their ancillaries or the company that makes their equipment.
And I was already following Tejas. So I took Tejas Network. At that time the company was in loss. The company had incurred a loss of ₹100 crore. So people can say that the company suffered a loss of Rs 100 crore and I took shares of that company, normally I would not have done that. But at that time the company also had ₹200 crore cash in the company.
That company had to take ₹170-80 crore from BSNL. The money had to be taken from Bharat Net or BSNL, from B Net, that company had to take it from the government and there was ₹120 crore cash in the company, ₹10 or ₹150 crore. So I put all this in and I said that I can't possibly be wrong in this. The price of the share which was ₹400 also became ₹40.
So I got everything like this, I understood Sunrise Industries, I understood the management. There is no one else in India who can make it and development has taken place within the sector. So I took that Tejas. So this is a formula. This is a concept. I buy these shares using this concept. By saying this, your question was that I took it this way.
Even today it is lying there for me. I also sold some shares. My freebies are now free. Still I have taken it because it seems that the story is just beginning. Now it has got a 4G order worth Rs 12,000 crore. Now again he will do 5G next year. Then for whatever he did with 4G, he will get AIIMS for 10 years.
So this was the turnaround of the company. Of course the market has become expensive now. Whatever I bought, I bought it for Rs 40. Today the price is ₹900 ₹800 ₹900. The stock became expensive. But I don't have any problem. If the next understand I took it for 40. Understand that today my value of Rs 800 has increased 20 times.
Understood? Even if it doubles in the next 3 years, my income will increase 40 times. I do n't have a double. My 20 times is 40 times. This is the advantage of buying shares first. So this type of formula is applied in different companies with different approaches. Sir, good morning. My name is Vimal Dadwania.
I had a question that you told me many good things and I will also try to follow them. But a question has been going on in my mind for a long time that if I want to do share market business then it is important to learn technical charts. It is add on flavour that means fundamental management, all these things will do the job.
So there is some confusion in my mind whether I should do some technical course or not, I mean, first of all let me tell you that I am not an expert in this. I am telling you all these things because I have not read any book. Let me also tell you this about investing. So all mine is trial and error.
So maybe what I am saying may apply only to me. You have to choose from that. You have to choose yourself whether to leave this, I will not be able to do this or I will throw away all the good things from this, as they say, it is for you to choose. I don't believe much in technicalities because I am an investor.
I feel that whatever technical is there is for the trader. If you trade in the market and that is time based trading, that is, you are trading for 3 months , 6 months or let's say if you are trading for 5 days, then [nasal sound] he can help you technically. It will definitely help you in that. But this trading is so complex that suddenly this trading has become so fashionable that whoever enters the stock market becomes Prakash Diwan within 3 months.
He becomes a chartist. Within 3 months he immediately understands that brother is sister. When I start making actual sheets, there are a lot of them, so I feel that I don't know anything, so I should learn the technicalities, that's the only confusion that keeps on happening. If you realize that you don't know, then you are a very intelligent person.
The problem people have with this understanding is that they do n't know what they don't know. And after coming to the stock market, after 3 months everyone started feeling that I am Raghuram Rajan here. I'm the chartist here. I am the analyst here and I will break and expose everything big here. Those children will start teaching their father here.
So this is the rule of the stock market here. You don't get it so quickly. And in a recession, the person who became an economist, chartist and analyst directly comes down to zero. Then the beginner comes. So this is here, so my opinion is that people like you who are COs or educated people, I do not understand that any person has earned huge wealth here by relying on charts.
The chart can help you. I also look at the charts. But I know the four letters of the chart. I mean, the alpha in the initial charts is a breakout. Some patterns that are formed, understand that a double bottom has been formed. I use it for speed. If there is a bearish sign in it, I do not sell my shares.
Because the chart decreased once due to recession. I have to keep the shares for 10 years. There will be many stops in between. Many times it was right also. I won't even be able to sell my quantity. I sold it and I won't be able to take it back. So I never buy shares of any company for entry but on the basis of chart.
I look at the chart of the company whose shares I buy. Just when did rock bottom happen? Take it, that means take life, whoever you tell or someone like that, I use the chart for that only. And in between I don't use chart what. So my belief is that you people should pay more attention to the fundamentals.
One should not pay attention to the technicalities because they are very complex. Ok? And the fundamentals are also complex. But still, if you have discipline in the ratio, then you need it in everything, even in technical matters, so I believe that charts are for trading and for investment, for long term investment, so charts can be a tool for you, but for that, fundamentals are more important.
Thank you. Good morning sir. I have also received some questions in writing, so many of them. Oh my God! So that's okay. They answer their questions quickly. I will tell you. What should I do to study? Yes. Yes, I have come. And those who delayed this, please do not ask for a repeat. I'm going to ask.
Hello sir. My name is Kulwant. I have a very important question with respect to psychology. As you said, whatever shares I hold, I show them the entire season of two bull runs and two bear markets. I have seen my clients like for example I give Suzuelon he has taken it for ₹400. Still they are holding it.
So how to avoid this psychology? Because I have seen many traders and investors facing this psychology. They are not able to hold stop loss. Meaning they do say it but still they are not able to follow it. I will answer this a little differently. Please sit. Someone asked me at one place that brother, consider these five shares as your main ones.
So which do you think are the best stocks in this? He asked me something in 189, which is your favorite stock ? Which one sounds better? So I told him brother, it is difficult for me to say this because all these stocks are like my love. Ok? And so I said but my love is for the maid who is the maid in the house, understand that the maid who comes to feed the children, in Bombay she is called Bai, in some places she is called Dai, in some places she is called Dai, so what is the maid who feeds the children, understand that whoever she is, Daiya Dai, whichever house she goes to, she loves that child like her own child, you will see that if there are two twin children in the house, if suppose two brothers are working, then the brother who is taking care of a child will be attached to that child and will fight with the other brother that this one hit this one first, that one hit that one first.
So what I mean is that I said that my love for these lions of mine is like that of a nanny who, when she takes care of a child, treats him as if he is her own child. Once she leaves the child at home, she stops working at home and then goes to another house. She will take care of the second child as her own child.
This is their specialty. Motherhood is what is called affection, whatever it is. Whatever it is, it is love. But that professional profession is such a secret profession. What a sacred profession it is that whichever house she goes to, she will give her love to that child. So as long as she is giving love, as long as she is taking care of that child.
Later she does not hate him but her love gets diverted. So, whatever shares I have, I play a buy-like game towards all these shares. So as I told you stay invested in a sunshine rise industry at any cost. Stay out of a sunset industry any cost. So this knowledge is necessary in the stock market. If you bought shares for Rs 400, then somewhere you will understand that this industry has set.
You will not understand it for Rs. 400 but you must have understood it for Rs. 200 also that what happens there is that we fall in love with that person so much that as we say, nowadays even marriage has no value. We say to me, don't marry your stock. So we marry her. These are not to be left. So these are your sentiments.
This is not your profession. These are your sentiments. So professionalism should not be applied in this. Professionalism should be applied in this. Sentiment should not be attached to the stock. I will give you an example. Like there used to be a share called TRF, I bought it for three, four or five shares.
Tata's company was there even now and I must have bought 1% shares in 70-80 and he must have bought 70, 80, 100, 5.25 in it. After that, within the boom of 7-8 times of 2000, those shares became ₹200, ₹2200, ₹80 shares, I did not sell the shares because in 2006-7, if you people did not see that, then when you see the history, at that time there was an infrastructure boom which is back today, so I thought this will happen, that will happen, someone released a report, it will become 10, this will be Tata's company, something like that, I also did not sell the shares at ₹2200, when it became ₹1200, I understood that its downfall had started because some frauds had also started coming in the company and you had to keep reading like this, share investing is a 24*7 job.
This is not a time pass job and you should think that I should do this also and in between I should invest to pass time. You will not be successful in investing. You will have to devote your entire mind, body, mind and money to this 24*7. I understood at 1200 that the work of these shares was completed.
The work of this sector was completed because frauds etc. also started coming up, I started selling shares from Rs 1200. I sold those shares for ₹900. The share of Rs 1200 became liquid because it was sold at Rs 900. The market also became a little sluggish. Think about that ₹900 share, I felt that I had sat in the wrong car.
Sold it for ₹900. That share returned to ₹40. It became 40 in 2010-11-12. So now you decide how wrong I am and how right I am in this. So it depends on you to find yourself in this place. So you will say or hey I did not sell it for 2400. So how do you sell for 1200? Most people are not able to sell the country's shares because they think that this is the price, the price has just become half.
How do I sell now? Like even after a 70% drop, the stock still loses 70%. So what I mean to say is that there is nothing like that here. Now it has become ₹3, understand. So what we should learn from this history is how are we behaving ? Ah hello. Sir. Ah sorry. Two small questions CA Alok Katik you talked about courage is one of the things that you need to build a position so if you can share your experience that for the first time when you decided to go big, that is someone you have let's say your given your net worth may be you know 10 20 crores position is no bigger as sizable for you but someone who has 10 lakh or 20 lakh.
If he has done research in a company and has to invest Rs 5 or 10 lakh, then he needs a lot of courage as you said and conviction. So how do you develop the mental framework to gain this conviction? So let me answer that one small question first. Then I will forget. I am with you right now. See, first of all let us see how this skill develops.
I understand that this skill is in your DNA. This is how you are born. You develop some skills when you are born, God gives you some skills and they come in your DNA. Some of them develop because of the environment in which you get up, sit, study, your siblings, the school in which you live, the environment in which you live.
So I think that this is why I am telling you this that when I made my first investment in my life, I had ₹35,000 left with me. So I invested ₹35,000 in one share, my first life investment was ₹35,000 and I had savings and I invested ₹35,000 in one share and that but before doing that, I kept doing the same thing for 10 years, I invested as much money as I had and I kept coming back to zero thousands of times.
I used to trade in the morning but I did not change myself. I felt that I had to do something big. Otherwise, wherever I am sitting is also fine. Then what am I supposed to do? So this cannot and should not be everyone's mindset. By saying this it is important for you to know yourself. Know Yourself [ __ ] is more than KYC.
Understand your own character and whether you can live in that condition ? Can you support yourself ? So my thinking from the beginning was that I had Rs 35,000 so I invested Rs 35,000. Then that share increased four times. Then whatever money I got, I kept it for food and drinks and after food and drinks, I invested all the money in other shares.
That share then increased 10 times. So this pattern started suiting me because my expenses, my house living expenses were so low. They were so low that I did not need much money. So I was ready to play a game in life that if I have to do something big then I will have to take some big risk. So by saying this, whenever I had money, it became my habit, it was my nature, it became my habit that I have to do this.
Even today my pattern is the same that whatever my worth is, whatever it is, my expenses are very limited accordingly. I don't have any very high-fi standards. So I keep my expenses very limited. Even if the market of this word goes bad, even if it sinks, even if the shares get halved, anything happens, then it will not make any difference to my lifestyle that there has been any change in my lifestyle.
So I learned this thing here. The second thing I would like to tell you is how to develop your courage in life and in the stock market. For that you will find one of my coined words like No Gravity Zone. No gravity zone is very important in the stock market. What is a no gravity zone? That for running your household expenses or for any expenses that you think are going to come up in life, be it for studies or children's studies or your own or marriage, be it this or that, you should not depend on the income from the stock market, you should do some other work in your life or you should have some other source of income so that you do not have to sell your shares to meet any of your other expenses, personal expenses, then I call that no gravity zone.
So, when I started doing a little more and things were fine, I created a second source of income for myself, thinking that I have a second source of income. Now I am not dependent on income from the stock market. I am not dependent on him. So I came inside the no gravity zone. So saying this, I invested whatever money I had in those shares.
But don't do this just by saying that whatever share you understand, invest all your money in that share. Do not do this work. If as Bhai Saheb was telling, Kulvanshi, if you had put it in Sujalan, then the solar power of your house would have gone off, till now your candle keeps burning only, so you should not do this also, for this, the knowledge behind it, that in which script am I doing this, it is very important to know that, but what people are like, I say many times that if you understand that you get a no ball in cricket terms and if you take only one run on a no ball, then it means that you have lost six runs, you have not scored one run, your ad will be that you scored one run, but actually if you see, you have lost six runs, so what should happen is that if a no ball has come, then you should hit a six on it.
When you get that free hit, you should hit a six. So this is what happens that if you have an idea, you are so convinced about some shares, everything is good, still you find out that your worth is ₹100, whether you bought shares worth ₹1 or ₹5, then even after that multiplication, it is not going to give you any big profit.
Having said this, it is important to put this courage in the right place. Courage is a sword of milk. Courage can protect you and also cut you down. So before doing that, you must keep in mind where to apply courage and where not to apply it. This is more important. Thank you sir. Just one quick follow up if I make one.
How do you differentiate between a value stock and a value trap ? Value Trap Value Trap and Value Stock. What is that? Do n't you know what a value trap is? Ah, what PSU banks were in 2016-17 and what may be in 2020-21, I don't know if that serves the purpose. No, you are trying to say that value trap means the shares which appear cheap but are cheap for a reason, for example.
How do you avoid these ? Because it can be cheap and it can also be cheap after that. So I understand one simple thing that if any share is cheap then see, the market is a very dynamic market here and there are forms of both the markets. Sometimes the market behaves so foolishly. Ok? That you will feel that there is value in it and this share is really cheap.
Understand and sometimes it seems that he is cheap. Cheap stocks are even cheaper for a reason. Even after 70% reduction, 70% reduction can occur. This can also happen in the market. I apply a simple formula of mine in this. I don't go after seeing cheap shares. Unless I understand the growth within the company, if the shares within the company are cheap.
For me this is not a reason to buy those shares. Even today you will find such shares which are loss making companies, so if you leave aside their PE, then their PE is 100-200. There will be some companies which are available at PE of 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Understand that the average PE of mid cap would be around 20, 25, 30.
So I do not take any shares of this country. Unless I see growth in that company, I cannot say whether the company will grow or not. Growth is more important to me. After that, if I am getting value from the shares then it is not a value trap for me. That's the real value growth story inside it. And sometimes that trap thing that you talk about can also be done by the market.
You should avoid those places where you feel that even today banks are cheap. If you are talking about PSU banks, they were cheap even 2 years ago. Even today, if you look at the numbers etc., tomorrow the number of Canara Bank came. What numbers did Bank of Maharashtra come in before this? Now I don't know whether this is a value trap or not.
I do n't know how long it will last or whether it will last. These are slightly slow shares. Let's say something. So for this you will have to keep reading this 24* 7 business. Are some people saying that there has been so much financing in retail? Every bank has financed retail so much that NPA can come from retail any time.
People are spending so much with credit cards. So much EMI system has come into existence. You are buying everything on EMI. So that retail loan became this much. So you will have to remove this. If you understand and you feel that you are not comfortable with it then you should not do it. There are so many sectors where there is a buffet.
You don't eat that. If you don't want to eat fish, do n't eat it. You can get your protein by eating ladyfinger. It is not necessary that you will get the same thing.
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