원문 보기
what's up everybody investing club here back with another video in this video I want to talk about why such a large portion of Warren Buffett's portfolio is in financial stocks and what this says about his view on what will happen in the US economy in the future so taking a quick look at Worm of its portfolio we see that he has quite a large percentage of financial companies he has Bank of America at 13 percent of its portfolio Wells Fargo at 11 percent American Express at 8 percent and then a lot of smaller holdings with a lot of other financial companies and we can come over to here and we see that Warren Buffett's portfolio consists of around 45% of financial services companies so almost half of Warren Buffett's portfolio is in financial stocks though now that might seem odd to some people especially since Warren Buffett is one of the biggest advocate of diversification you know doesn't that seem a little weird that he would have half of his portfolio in one industry and with Warren Buffett the thing is he what he says and what he does are very often two completely different things so if you actually want to learn how to think and invest like Warren Buffett you need to see what he's doing and not simply what he's telling the public which is buy and hold a low-cost index fund so the main reason I think that Warren Buffett is holding almost half of his portfolio in financial stocks as well as having the largest cash position he's ever held is because of interest rates now this is a long-term chart of interest rates all the way back to 1790 and the thing with interest rates are they're cyclical so interest rates have always historically gone up and gone down in in cycles for the US economy starting back in 79 you see they go up down and they go back up again come all the way back down up down and then from the 50s to around 1980 they would go all the way back up and interest rates typically last and around 30 to 40 year cycles and what I want you to notice is from 1980 the interest rates have been going straight down and so now a lot of people think we are at the end of this 40-year cycle and interest rates will start to go up again you know just from just from looking at this chart this only goes up to 2010 but right now interest rates are at zero okay so they're actually all the way down here and I think it's unlikely rates go negative at least for a sustained period of time so when you think about it that way the only direction interest rates can really go is back up and so what does this mean for financial companies well financial companies make more money when interest rates go up and simply because most banks and financial companies profit off the spread between the interest rate they give you the customer and the interest rate they themselves make by lending out their money so when you look at this chart I think it's pretty clear Warren Buffett thinks interest rates will rise in the future and because of that financial companies will see an increase in value and in addition we can see what else happens when interest rates increase this is a chart from the Federal Reserve and the red line is the stock market and the blue line is interest rates and what the thing I want you to note is when interest rates go up stock prices tend to fall they move in an inverse relationship so we see stop interest rates go up stock prices fall and so I think Warren Buffett is holding on to a lot of cash because if interest rates do go up it is likely that we will see the stock market fall and I think a big reason that the stock market has gone as high as it has is because interest rates have been so low for so long and I just think that's not sustainable so looking at Warren Buffett's portfolio when you add all these factors up he has 45 percent of his portfolio and financial companies and he has 128 billion in cash even though he's not gonna come straight out and tell you this he probably thinks that interest rates will go up in the future so now should you own financial stocks in your portfolio well if you think about it in this way financial companies are a hedge against higher interest rates because if interest rates go up stocks will most likely go down that is most stocks except for financial stocks which will actually go up so in that way financial stocks actually act like a hedge against interest rates so owning some financial companies might be a good idea definitely something to think about one of the stocks I own is a bank and it was probably the I'll probably talk about it in the next video I post and I think it is a important holding for me because of this concept that interest rates probably won't stay at zero forever so that's all I really wanted to go over in this video if you learned something from this video leave a thumbs up subscribe to the channel if you want to see more videos like this and I will see you on the next video
Comments 0